Madras Fertilizers Limited (MADRASFERT) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Madras Fertilizers Limited ₹37.81, price ₹57.46, upside -34.2%, quality 45 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹26.00 – ₹130.08 · fair‑value band ₹29.53 – ₹50.75 · the ₹57.46 price screens above the ₹37.81 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
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Madras Fertilizers Limited manufactures and sells fertilizers in India. The company offers ammonia, urea, and complex fertilizers; bio-fertilizers; organic fertilizers; and neem pesticides under the brand name VIJAY. It also engages in the trading of agro chemicals, organic manure, and city compost. The company markets its products through dealers.
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Madras Fertilizers Limited manufactures and sells fertilizers in India. The company offers ammonia, urea, and complex fertilizers; bio-fertilizers; organic fertilizers; and neem pesticides under the brand name VIJAY. It also engages in the trading of agro chemicals, organic manure, and city compost. The company markets its products through dealers. Madras Fertilizers Limited was incorporated in 1966 and is headquartered in Chennai, India.
Stock analysis
Madras Fertilizers Limited (MADRASFERT) currently trades at ₹57.46, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹37.81, 34.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ₹206.06 per share, and 21 of the 24 models we run sit above the ₹57.46 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ₹3.82, and 3 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ₹29.53 (bear) to ₹50.75 (bull), the price of ₹57.46 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Madras Fertilizers Limited reported revenue of ₹23.0B in FY2026 versus ₹3.4B in FY2022, a compound +61.4%/yr. Reported net income was ₹804M in FY2026, compounding −16.1%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap ₹9.3B (≈ $96.2M) · P/E ratio 11.5 · P/S ratio 0.40 · EPS (TTM) ₹4.99 · Net margin 3.5% · Return on equity 270% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.0% · Operating margin 4.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 36 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 17% fair-value upside, at −34%, MADRASFERT screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ₹29.53Fair Value ₹37.81Bull ₹50.75
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹2.54 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.75/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−9.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+95.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+43.2%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.7% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−0.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−0.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−0.5% vs 36.7%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.27% → 4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+30.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (India: IMF forecast 4.1% a year to 2030, 4.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +25.7% a year for the price.
Compare Madras Fertilizers Limited with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Agricultural Inputs · 170 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score45 · Below median
Fair Value upside−34.2% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)269.6% · Top 25%
Return on assets2.6% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)3.5% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)4.6% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth26.0% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Agricultural Inputs median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)11.5× · Cheaper than median
P/B10.07× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.40× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF36.5× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA2.5× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 20
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 20
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 26
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 43
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Madras Fertilizers Limited (MADRASFERT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹37.81 versus a price of ₹57.46, about −34% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MADRASFERT?
Our model-based fair value for Madras Fertilizers Limited is ₹37.81 (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹57.46.
What is the quality score of MADRASFERT?
Madras Fertilizers Limited has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Madras Fertilizers Limited (MADRASFERT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹37.81 (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹29.53, optimistic scenario ₹50.75. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Madras Fertilizers Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹37.81, about −34% upside versus a price of ₹57.46 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ₹29.53, optimistic scenario ₹50.75. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Madras Fertilizers Limited (MADRASFERT)?
Madras Fertilizers Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹23.0B (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into Madras Fertilizers Limited (MADRASFERT)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Madras Fertilizers Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +30.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +43.2 % per year. As of Oct 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MADRASFERT use?
Our models discount Madras Fertilizers Limited at 13.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.23, country premium for India. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Madras Fertilizers Limited that is +30.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Madras Fertilizers Limited (MADRASFERT) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Madras Fertilizers Limited grew +43.2 % a year. The price currently implies +30.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Madras Fertilizers Limited (MADRASFERT) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Madras Fertilizers Limited (+30.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Madras Fertilizers Limited (MADRASFERT)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.74 %: that much free cash flow Madras Fertilizers Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Madras Fertilizers Limited (MADRASFERT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Madras Fertilizers Limited it is ₹37.81 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of ₹57.46. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Madras Fertilizers Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, MADRASFERT trades above its calculated fair value: price ₹57.46, fair value ₹37.81, a gap of about −34% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MADRASFERT?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹57.46); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹37.81). For Madras Fertilizers Limited the two are ₹19.65 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Madras Fertilizers Limited worth?
The market values Madras Fertilizers Limited at about ₹9.3B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is ₹57.46; our models calculate a fair value of ₹37.81 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MADRASFERT?
Our models span a range for Madras Fertilizers Limited: cautious scenario ₹29.53, base ₹37.81, optimistic ₹50.75 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price ₹57.46). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MADRASFERT?
Madras Fertilizers Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.5 (as of Oct 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹37.81 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 10.1, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 2.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Madras Fertilizers Limited (MADRASFERT)?
Balance-sheet figures for Madras Fertilizers Limited (as of Oct 2, 2026): return on equity 269.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MADRASFERT from its 52-week high?
Madras Fertilizers Limited trades at ₹57.46, about 33% below its 52-week high of ₹85.92 and 8% above the low of ₹53.06 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹37.81 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Madras Fertilizers Limited?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Corteva, Inc, Nutrien Ltd, Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co, CF Industries Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Madras Fertilizers Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price ₹57.46, calculated fair value ₹37.81 (−34%), Quality Score 45/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MADRASFERT calculated?
We run Madras Fertilizers Limited through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹37.81, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Madras Fertilizers Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Madras Fertilizers Limited (MADRASFERT)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was ₹57.46. Our model-based fair value is ₹37.81, about −34% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Madras Fertilizers Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (₹50.75). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (45/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Madras Fertilizers Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Madras Fertilizers Limited (MADRASFERT)?
The market capitalisation of Madras Fertilizers Limited is ₹9.3B (≈ $96.2M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Madras Fertilizers Limited (MADRASFERT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Madras Fertilizers Limited is 0.40 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Madras Fertilizers Limited (MADRASFERT)?
Earnings per share at Madras Fertilizers Limited are ₹4.99 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Madras Fertilizers Limited (MADRASFERT)?
The net margin of Madras Fertilizers Limited is 3.5% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Madras Fertilizers Limited (MADRASFERT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Madras Fertilizers Limited is 270% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Madras Fertilizers Limited (MADRASFERT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Madras Fertilizers Limited is 9.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Madras Fertilizers Limited (MADRASFERT)?
The operating margin of Madras Fertilizers Limited is 4.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Madras Fertilizers Limited (MADRASFERT)?
Revenue at Madras Fertilizers Limited is growing +26.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +95.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Madras Fertilizers Limited (MADRASFERT)?
Earnings per share at Madras Fertilizers Limited are growing −96.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Madras Fertilizers Limited (MADRASFERT) hold?
Madras Fertilizers Limited holds more cash than debt, ₹217M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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