Melbana Energy Ltd (MAY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Melbana Energy Ltd A$0.03, price A$0.00, upside +650.0%, quality 19 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jun 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0030 – A$0.1900 · fair‑value band A$0.0200 – A$0.0300 · the A$0.0040 price screens below the A$0.0300 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jun 24, 2026.
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Melbana Energy Limited engages in the exploration of oil and gas in Cuba and Australia. The company was formerly known as MEO Australia Limited and changed its name to Melbana Energy Limited in November 2016. The company was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Sydney, Australia.
Stock analysis
Melbana Energy Ltd (MAY) currently trades at A$0.0040, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0300, implying the stock looks roughly 86.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 4 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: A$0.0200 (bear) to A$0.0300 (bull), the price of A$0.0040 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 19/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Melbana Energy Ltd reported revenue of A$172K in FY2025 versus A$1.1M in FY2021, a compound −37.2%/yr. Reported net income was −A$4.2M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap A$18.9M (≈ $13.3M) · P/S ratio 2.24 · Return on equity −6.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) −7.7% · Revenue growth (YoY) +162% · EPS growth (YoY) −97.3% · Free cash flow −A$38.3M · Net cash A$5.1M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 29 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 79% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 650%, MAY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$0.0200Fair Value A$0.0300Bull A$0.0300
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−69.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−74.5%
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.1%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−3,153,891.9% (2020) → −2,136.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 288 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/8 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score19 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+200.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−2.4% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)0.0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth162.2% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity10.64× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Melbana Energy Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MAY
Frequently asked questions
Is Melbana Energy Ltd (MAY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jun 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0300 versus a price of A$0.0040, about +650% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MAY?
Our model-based fair value for Melbana Energy Ltd is A$0.0300 (as of Jun 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.0040.
What is the quality score of MAY?
Melbana Energy Ltd has a Quality Score of 19/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Melbana Energy Ltd (MAY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0300 (as of Jun 24, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0200, optimistic scenario A$0.0300. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Melbana Energy Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0300, about +650% upside versus a price of A$0.0040 (undervalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0200, optimistic scenario A$0.0300. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Melbana Energy Ltd (MAY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Melbana Energy Ltd it is A$0.0300 per share (as of Jun 24, 2026), against a price of A$0.0040. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Melbana Energy Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Jun 24, 2026, MAY trades below its calculated fair value: price A$0.0040, fair value A$0.0300, a gap of about +650% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MAY?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.0040); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0300). For Melbana Energy Ltd the two are A$0.0260 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Melbana Energy Ltd worth?
The market values Melbana Energy Ltd at about A$18.9M (market capitalisation, as of Jun 24, 2026). Per share that is A$0.0040; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0300 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MAY?
Our models span a range for Melbana Energy Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0200, base A$0.0300, optimistic A$0.0300 per share (as of Jun 24, 2026, price A$0.0040). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Melbana Energy Ltd (MAY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Melbana Energy Ltd (as of Jun 24, 2026): return on equity −6.7%, debt of 10.64 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 19/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MAY from its 52-week high?
Melbana Energy Ltd trades at A$0.0040, about 79% below its 52-week high of A$0.0190 and 33% above the low of A$0.0030 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0300 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Melbana Energy Ltd?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Melbana Energy Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Jun 24, 2026: price A$0.0040, calculated fair value A$0.0300 (+650%), Quality Score 19/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MAY calculated?
We run Melbana Energy Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.0300, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Melbana Energy Ltd currently trades 650 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Melbana Energy Ltd (MAY)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was A$0.0040. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0300, about +650% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Melbana Energy Ltd right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (19/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (A$0.0200). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Melbana Energy Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Melbana Energy Ltd (MAY)?
The market capitalisation of Melbana Energy Ltd is A$18.9M (≈ $13.3M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Melbana Energy Ltd (MAY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Melbana Energy Ltd is 2.24 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the return on equity of Melbana Energy Ltd (MAY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Melbana Energy Ltd is −6.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Melbana Energy Ltd (MAY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Melbana Energy Ltd is −7.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast is revenue growing at Melbana Energy Ltd (MAY)?
Revenue at Melbana Energy Ltd is growing +162% versus a year earlier (3y avg −74.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Melbana Energy Ltd (MAY)?
Earnings per share at Melbana Energy Ltd are growing −97.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Melbana Energy Ltd (MAY) generate?
The free cash flow of Melbana Energy Ltd is −A$38.3M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Melbana Energy Ltd (MAY) hold?
Melbana Energy Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$5.1M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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