MBIA Inc (MBI) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $310M
MBIA Inc
MBI · US
Fair value as of: Jun 23, 2026
From 8 valuation models · updated 48 days ago
Share price −21.5% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 23% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($4.91). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jun 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.66 – $8.13 · fair‑value band $2.94 – $4.91 · the $5.11 price screens above the $3.93 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jun 23, 2026.
Analysis
MBIA Inc (MBI) currently trades at $5.11, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.93, implying the stock looks roughly 23.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at $98.0M. Revenue grew 4.8% year over year. Net debt stands at $3.3B. Fundamentals as of Jun 23, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $2.94 (bear case) to $4.91 (bull case); at $5.11, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 46% fair-value upside, at -23%, MBI screens richer than that median.
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jun 23, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 31
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
MBIA Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides financial guarantee insurance services to public finance markets in the United States. It operates through United States (U.S.) Public Finance Insurance, Corporate, and International and Structured Finance Insurance segments.
Full company description
MBIA Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides financial guarantee insurance services to public finance markets in the United States. It operates through United States (U.S.) Public Finance Insurance, Corporate, and International and Structured Finance Insurance segments. The company issues financial guarantees for municipal bonds, including tax-exempt and taxable indebtedness of the U.S. political subdivisions, as well as utilities, airports, health care institutions, higher educational facilities, housing authorities, and other similar agencies and obligations issued by private entities. It also insures non-U.S. public finance and global structured finance, including asset-backed obligations; sovereign-related and sub-sovereign bonds, utilities, and privately issued bonds used for the financing for toll roads, bridges, public transportation facilities, and other types of infrastructure projects; and structured finance and asset-backed obligations comprising residential and commercial mortgages, consumer loans, and structured settlements. as well as offers third-party reinsurance agreements. MBIA Inc. was founded in 1973 and is headquartered in Purchase, New York.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
MBIA Inc reported revenue of $80.0M in FY2025 versus $159M in FY2021, a compound −15.8%/yr. Reported net income was −$177M in FY2025.
MBI screens 23% overvalued. Compare with Fidelity National Financial, Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- MBIA (MBI) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
- MBIA Q1 Earnings Call Highlights
- Noteworthy Friday Option Activity: NN, MBI, IRON
- MBIA Q4 Earnings Call Highlights
Peer Group
Insurance - Specialty · 32 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Insurance - Specialty median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Insurance - Specialty stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jun 23, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fidelity National Financial, Inc FNF | $49.53 | $29.08 | -41% |
| AXIS Capital Holdings AXS | $114.62 | $177.90 | +55% |
| First American Financial Corporation FAF | $70.06 | $79.33 | +13% |
| Enact Holdings ACT | $46.52 | $62.79 | +35% |
| MGIC Investment Corporation MTG | $29.47 | $45.39 | +54% |
| Essent Group ESNT | $66.71 | $97.33 | +46% |
| Radian Group RDN | $39.14 | $56.98 | +46% |
| Protector Forsikring ASA PROT | kr 485.80 | kr 418.04 | -14% |
| Assured Guaranty Ltd AGO | $82.49 | $147.67 | +79% |
| NMI Holdings NMIH | $41.16 | $66.55 | +62% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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