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MBIA Inc (MBI) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what MBIA Inc is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.

Valuation from Jun 23, 2026. With the latest figures (losses, negative cash flow), a fair value can no longer be calculated.
  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Financial Services · US · ISIN US55262C1009

MI MBIA Inc logo Thin data Jun 23, 2026

MBIA Inc

MBI · US

Overvalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.

!Fair value $3.93 · Overvalued (−11%)
!Quality 57/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −22.3 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -158.2% net margin (TTM)
✓Negative equity (buybacks among others) · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (2/9)
!Narrow moat 27/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on valuation: 18 out of 100
!Weak on future: 24 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$8.13 $2.66 Fair Value $3.93 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jun 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $2.66 – $8.13 · fair‑value band $2.94 – $4.91 · the $4.43 price screens above the $3.93 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jun 23, 2026.

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Company profile

MBIA Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides financial guarantee insurance services to public finance markets in the United States. It operates through United States (U.S.) Public Finance Insurance, Corporate, and International and Structured Finance Insurance segments.

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MBIA Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides financial guarantee insurance services to public finance markets in the United States. It operates through United States (U.S.) Public Finance Insurance, Corporate, and International and Structured Finance Insurance segments. The company issues financial guarantees for municipal bonds, including tax-exempt and taxable indebtedness of the U.S. political subdivisions, as well as utilities, airports, health care institutions, higher educational facilities, housing authorities, and other similar agencies and obligations issued by private entities. It also insures non-U.S. public finance and global structured finance, including asset-backed obligations; sovereign-related and sub-sovereign bonds, utilities, and privately issued bonds used for the financing for toll roads, bridges, public transportation facilities, and other types of infrastructure projects; and structured finance and asset-backed obligations comprising residential and commercial mortgages, consumer loans, and structured settlements. as well as offers third-party reinsurance agreements. MBIA Inc. was founded in 1973 and is headquartered in Purchase, New York.

Stock analysis

MBIA Inc (MBI) currently trades at $4.43, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.93, implying the stock looks roughly 12.7% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 8 models at a data quality of 94/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $2.94 (bear) to $4.91 (bull), the price of $4.43 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

MBIA Inc reported revenue of $80.0M in FY2025 versus $159M in FY2021, a compound −15.8%/yr. Reported net income was −$177M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $310M · P/S ratio 3.16 · EPS (TTM) $−3.04 · Net margin −158% · Return on assets (EBIT) −12.4% · Operating margin 18.2% · Revenue (TTM) $98.0M · Revenue growth (YoY) +4.8%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 27 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 43% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 7% fair-value upside, at −11%, MBI screens richer than that median.

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 57/100

Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 16

Profitability 0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 92
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 100
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 12
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 40
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 8
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 1
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 64
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 20/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+90.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−19.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−22.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −21.1% a year
Revenue growth 38 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.4%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−205.0% (2020) → −226.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+37.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +34.2% a year for the price.

MBI screens 13% overvalued. Compare with Fidelity National Financial, Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Specialty · 30 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 59 · Below median
Fair Value upside −11% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets 1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −158% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 18% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 5% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.

Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Specialty median · lower = cheaper

P/B Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (TTM) 3.16× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 8.1× · Cheaper than median
PEG 1.71× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)18 · sector 23
FUTURE (revenue growth)24 · sector 25
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 62
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 91
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 56

PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Insurance - Specialty stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Fidelity National Financial, Inc FNF $41.85 $29.08 −31%
AXIS Capital Holdings AXS $95.31 $125.88 +32%
First American Financial Corporation FAF $69.24 $52.74 −24%
Enact Holdings ACT $47.61 $45.58 −4%
MGIC Investment Corporation MTG $29.29 $31.40 +7%
Essent Group ESNT $65.70 $68.42 +4%
Radian Group RDN $34.69 $39.97 +15%
Protector Forsikring ASA PROT kr 424.00 kr 273.28 −36%
Assured Guaranty Ltd AGO $70.74 $117.95 +67%
NMI Holdings NMIH $42.42 $46.94 +11%

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MBIA Inc · Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "MBIA Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MBI

Frequently asked questions

Is MBIA Inc (MBI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jun 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $3.93 versus a price of $4.43, about −11% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MBI?
Our model-based fair value for MBIA Inc is $3.93 (as of Jun 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $4.43.
What is the quality score of MBI?
MBIA Inc has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for MBIA Inc (MBI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $3.93 (as of Jun 23, 2026) from 8 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.94, optimistic scenario $4.91. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the MBIA Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $3.93, about −11% upside versus a price of $4.43 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.94, optimistic scenario $4.91. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of MBIA Inc (MBI)?
MBIA Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $98.0M (latest available figure, as of Jun 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into MBIA Inc (MBI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, MBIA Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +37.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -22.3 % per year. As of Jun 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MBI use?
Our models discount MBIA Inc at 12.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.34, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For MBIA Inc that is +37.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has MBIA Inc (MBI) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at MBIA Inc grew -22.3 % a year. The price currently implies +37.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of MBIA Inc (MBI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into MBIA Inc (+37.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of MBIA Inc (MBI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 17.41 %: that much free cash flow MBIA Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of MBIA Inc (MBI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For MBIA Inc it is $3.93 per share (as of Jun 23, 2026), against a price of $4.43. It is the blended result of 8 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is MBIA Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Jun 23, 2026, MBI trades above its calculated fair value: price $4.43, fair value $3.93, a gap of about −11% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MBI?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($4.43); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($3.93). For MBIA Inc the two are $0.5000 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is MBIA Inc worth?
The market values MBIA Inc at about $310M (market capitalisation, as of Jun 23, 2026). Per share that is $4.43; our models calculate a fair value of $3.93 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MBI?
Our models span a range for MBIA Inc: cautious scenario $2.94, base $3.93, optimistic $4.91 per share (as of Jun 23, 2026, price $4.43). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of MBI?
The PEG ratio of MBIA Inc is 1.71 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Jun 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of MBIA Inc (MBI)?
Balance-sheet figures for MBIA Inc (as of Jun 23, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MBI from its 52-week high?
MBIA Inc trades at $4.43, about 43% below its 52-week high of $7.72 and 1% above the low of $4.39 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $3.93 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to MBIA Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Fidelity National Financial, Inc, AXIS Capital Holdings, First American Financial Corporation, Enact Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is MBIA Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Jun 23, 2026: price $4.43, calculated fair value $3.93 (−11%), Quality Score 57/100, from 8 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MBI calculated?
We run MBIA Inc through 8 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $3.93, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. MBIA Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of MBIA Inc (MBI)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was $4.43. Our model-based fair value is $3.93, about −11% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with MBIA Inc right now?
Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Key figures of MBIA Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of MBIA Inc (MBI)?
The market capitalisation of MBIA Inc is $310M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of MBIA Inc (MBI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of MBIA Inc is 3.16 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of MBIA Inc (MBI)?
Earnings per share at MBIA Inc are $−3.04. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of MBIA Inc (MBI)?
The net margin of MBIA Inc is −158% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of MBIA Inc (MBI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of MBIA Inc is −12.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of MBIA Inc (MBI)?
The operating margin of MBIA Inc is 18.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at MBIA Inc (MBI)?
Revenue at MBIA Inc is growing +4.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −19.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does MBIA Inc (MBI) carry?
The net debt of MBIA Inc is $3.3B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 86.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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