Mobileye Global Inc (MBLY) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $7.9B

A solid business, but screening 60% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($3.68). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (4 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

How to read this chart

45‑month range $6.56 – $47.02 · fair‑value band $3.11 – $3.68 · the $8.42 price screens above the $3.39 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

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Analysis

Mobileye Global Inc (MBLY) currently trades at $8.42, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.39, implying the stock looks roughly 59.7% overvalued today. We read business quality at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at $2.0B. Revenue grew 27.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -40.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $1.8B. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $3.11 (bear case) to $3.68 (bull case); at $8.42, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 58% below its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -44% fair-value upside, at -60%, MBLY screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($10.79) versus Multiples ($3.49). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (72).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Mobileye Global Inc. develops and deploys advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving technologies and solutions in the United States, Europe, China, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Mobileye and Moovit.

Full company description

Mobileye Global Inc. develops and deploys advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving technologies and solutions in the United States, Europe, China, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Mobileye and Moovit. It offers end-to-end ADAS and autonomous driving solutions, including Base ADAS, a front camera that delivers a combination of intelligent safety features to avoid unsafe driving situations; Cloud-Enhanced ADAS, which leverages crowdsourced data to offer accurate localization; safer, smoother, and natural driving experience; and Mobileye Surround ADAS that offer eyes-on/hands-off functionality for highway ODDs with features, such as automatic lane change, front and rear collision avoidance, traffic jam assist, and a Highway Pilot function, as well as includes DXP support that enables customers to customize the driving experience. It also provides Mobileye SuperVision, a eyes-on/hands-off driver assist system for autonomous vehicles; Mobileye Chauffeur, an eyes-off/hands-off solution for consumer vehicles; and Mobileye Drive, a fleet-focused end-to-end self-driving system that enables automakers, public transportation companies, and transportation network operators to offer a no-driver solution for robotaxis, ride-pooling, public transport, and goods delivery. In addition, it offers EyeQ SoC that provide drivers with basic safety features covered by front-facing sensing, such as collision warning, lane departure warnings, pedestrian and cyclist collision warning, headway monitoring and warning, speed limit indicator, blind spot detection, and others; True Redundancy, which is an AI system architecture; and Road Experience Management solutions. It provides its products and services to original equipment manufacturers through automotive suppliers, as well as fleet owners and operators. The company was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Jerusalem, Israel. Mobileye Global Inc. is a subsidiary of Intel Corporation.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Mobileye Global Inc reported revenue of $1.9B in FY2025 versus $1.4B in FY2021, a compound +8.1%/yr. Reported net income was −$392M in FY2025.

MBLY screens 60% overvalued. Compare with Hyundai Mobis Co →

Peer Group

Auto Parts · 641 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.