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Marie Brizard Wine & Spirits SA (MBW) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Marie Brizard Wine & Spirits SA PLN 5.68, price PLN 11.40, upside -50.2%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Some data
Sep 24, 2026
Marie Brizard Wine & Spirits SA
MBW · WARStretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value 5.68 PLN · Strongly overvalued (−50.2%)
!Quality 54/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +0.3 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 5.3% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Narrow moat 36/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 5.36 PLN – 19.40 PLN · fair‑value band 4.03 PLN – 7.39 PLN · the 11.40 PLN price screens above the 5.68 PLN fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Marie Brizard Wine & Spirits SA engages in producing, marketing, and selling wines and spirits in France, Europe, Africa, the Americas, and the Asia Pacific. The company offers scotch whisky, polish vodka, liqueurs and syrups, cognac, and tequila.
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Marie Brizard Wine & Spirits SA engages in producing, marketing, and selling wines and spirits in France, Europe, Africa, the Americas, and the Asia Pacific. The company offers scotch whisky, polish vodka, liqueurs and syrups, cognac, and tequila. It sells its products under the William Peel, Sobieski, Marie Brizard, Cognac Gautier, and San José brands, as well as various local brands. The company was founded in 1755 and is based in Charenton-le-Pont, France. Marie Brizard Wine & Spirits SA is a subsidiary of Compagnie Financiere Europeenne De Prises De Participation SA.
Stock analysis
Marie Brizard Wine & Spirits SA (MBW) currently trades at 11.40 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 5.68 PLN, 50.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 6.09 PLN per share, and 0 of the 13 models we run sit above the 11.40 PLN price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 2.98 PLN, and 13 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 4.03 PLN (bear) to 7.39 PLN (bull), the price of 11.40 PLN sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Marie Brizard Wine & Spirits SA reported revenue of €172M in FY2025 versus €167M in FY2021, a compound +0.8%/yr. Reported net income was €9.1M in FY2025, compounding +13.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 1.3B PLN (≈ $328M) · P/E ratio 33.5 · P/S ratio 1.78 · EPS (TTM) 0.3400 PLN · Net margin 5.3% · Return on equity 4.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.5% · Operating margin 5.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 34% fair-value upside, at −50%, MBW screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 4.03 PLN
Fair Value 5.68 PLN
Bull 7.39 PLN
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.2571 PLN per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Owner Earnings
4.12 PLN
4.76 PLN
5.83 PLN
78
EPV
4.21 PLN
4.51 PLN
4.76 PLN
74
ROIC Compounder
4.21 PLN
4.51 PLN
4.76 PLN
72
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings
4.12 PLN
4.76 PLN
5.83 PLN
78
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
2.43 PLN
2.98 PLN
3.35 PLN
67
EPV
4.21 PLN
4.51 PLN
4.76 PLN
74
Multiples
P/E Multiple
5.64 PLN
7.52 PLN
9.40 PLN
63
P/S Multiple
4.57 PLN
6.09 PLN
7.61 PLN
58
P/B Multiple
4.57 PLN
6.09 PLN
7.61 PLN
55
EV/EBIT
5.90 PLN
7.19 PLN
8.49 PLN
66
EV/EBITDA
6.40 PLN
7.87 PLN
9.33 PLN
67
EV/Revenue
4.79 PLN
5.98 PLN
7.16 PLN
54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
4.34 PLN
5.81 PLN
8.67 PLN
54
Economic Profit
Residual Income
6.21 PLN
6.19 PLN
6.34 PLN
71
ROIC Compounder
4.21 PLN
4.51 PLN
4.76 PLN
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
3.98 PLN
5.69 PLN
7.40 PLN
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
54/100
Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 51
Profitability
35
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
29
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
8
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
92
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
88
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
89
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
39
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
28
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
20/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
−8.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −9.2% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.6%
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’20
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+9.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.9.2% vs −9.6%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−3% → 5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 20.3%/yr over ~10Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
MBW screens overvalued: fair value 50% below the price. Compare with Kweichow Moutai Co →
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Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Alcohol
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Frequently asked questions
Is Marie Brizard Wine & Spirits SA (MBW) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 5.68 PLN versus a price of 11.40 PLN, about −50% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MBW?
Our model-based fair value for Marie Brizard Wine & Spirits SA is 5.68 PLN (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 11.40 PLN.
What is the quality score of MBW?
Marie Brizard Wine & Spirits SA has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Marie Brizard Wine & Spirits SA (MBW)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 5.68 PLN (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario 4.03 PLN, optimistic scenario 7.39 PLN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Marie Brizard Wine & Spirits SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 5.68 PLN, about −50% upside versus a price of 11.40 PLN (overvalued). Cautious scenario 4.03 PLN, optimistic scenario 7.39 PLN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Marie Brizard Wine & Spirits SA (MBW)?
Marie Brizard Wine & Spirits SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €172M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Marie Brizard Wine & Spirits SA (MBW)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Marie Brizard Wine & Spirits SA it is 5.68 PLN per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 11.40 PLN. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Marie Brizard Wine & Spirits SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, MBW trades above its calculated fair value: price 11.40 PLN, fair value 5.68 PLN, a gap of about −50% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MBW?
No. The price is what the market pays today (11.40 PLN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (5.68 PLN). For Marie Brizard Wine & Spirits SA the two are 5.72 PLN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Marie Brizard Wine & Spirits SA worth?
The market values Marie Brizard Wine & Spirits SA at about 1.3B PLN (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 11.40 PLN; our models calculate a fair value of 5.68 PLN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MBW?
Our models span a range for Marie Brizard Wine & Spirits SA: cautious scenario 4.03 PLN, base 5.68 PLN, optimistic 7.39 PLN per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 11.40 PLN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is MBW from its 52-week high?
Marie Brizard Wine & Spirits SA trades at 11.40 PLN, about 9% below its 52-week high of 12.50 PLN and 4% above the low of 10.95 PLN (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 5.68 PLN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Marie Brizard Wine & Spirits SA?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Kweichow Moutai Co, Wuliangye Yibin Co, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co, Pernod Ricard SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Marie Brizard Wine & Spirits SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 11.40 PLN, calculated fair value 5.68 PLN (−50%), Quality Score 54/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MBW calculated?
We run Marie Brizard Wine & Spirits SA through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 5.68 PLN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Marie Brizard Wine & Spirits SA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Marie Brizard Wine & Spirits SA (MBW)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was 11.40 PLN. Our model-based fair value is 5.68 PLN, about −50% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Marie Brizard Wine & Spirits SA right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (7.39 PLN). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (4.03 PLN to 7.39 PLN) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Marie Brizard Wine & Spirits SA
How large is the market capitalisation of Marie Brizard Wine & Spirits SA (MBW)?
The market capitalisation of Marie Brizard Wine & Spirits SA is 1.3B PLN (≈ $328M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Marie Brizard Wine & Spirits SA (MBW)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Marie Brizard Wine & Spirits SA is 33.5. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Marie Brizard Wine & Spirits SA (MBW)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Marie Brizard Wine & Spirits SA is 1.78 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Marie Brizard Wine & Spirits SA (MBW)?
Earnings per share at Marie Brizard Wine & Spirits SA are 0.3400 PLN (price ÷ EPS = P/E 33.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Marie Brizard Wine & Spirits SA (MBW)?
The net margin of Marie Brizard Wine & Spirits SA is 5.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Marie Brizard Wine & Spirits SA (MBW)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Marie Brizard Wine & Spirits SA is 4.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Marie Brizard Wine & Spirits SA (MBW)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Marie Brizard Wine & Spirits SA is 2.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Marie Brizard Wine & Spirits SA (MBW)?
The operating margin of Marie Brizard Wine & Spirits SA is 5.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Marie Brizard Wine & Spirits SA (MBW)?
Revenue at Marie Brizard Wine & Spirits SA is growing −8.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Marie Brizard Wine & Spirits SA (MBW)?
Earnings per share at Marie Brizard Wine & Spirits SA are growing +124% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Marie Brizard Wine & Spirits SA (MBW) generate?
The free cash flow of Marie Brizard Wine & Spirits SA is −€2.6M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Marie Brizard Wine & Spirits SA (MBW) hold?
Marie Brizard Wine & Spirits SA holds more cash than debt, €45.3M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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