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McDonald's Corporation (MCDC34) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of McDonald's Corporation BRL 28.46, price BRL 60.93, upside -53.3%, quality 68 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 28, 2026
McDonald's Corporation
MCDC34 · SAStretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value R$28.46 · Strongly overvalued (−53.3%)
✓Quality 68/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +7.0 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 31.6% net margin (TTM)
✓Negative equity (buybacks among others) · generates free cash flow
✓11.9% dividend yield · Well covered
✓Wide moat 88/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$51.45 – R$91.25 · fair‑value band R$17.73 – R$44.28 · the R$60.93 price screens above the R$28.46 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
Company profile
McDonald's Corporation owns, operates, and franchises restaurants under the McDonald's brand in the United States and internationally.
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McDonald's Corporation owns, operates, and franchises restaurants under the McDonald's brand in the United States and internationally. It offers food and beverages, including hamburgers and cheeseburgers, various chicken sandwiches, fries, shakes, frozen desserts, sundaes, soft serve cones, cookies, pies, soft drinks, coffee, and other beverages; and full or limited breakfast, as well as sells various other products during limited-time promotions. The company owns and operates franchised restaurants under various structures, including conventional franchise, developmental license, or affiliate. McDonald's Corporation was founded in 1940 and is based in Chicago, Illinois.
Stock analysis
McDonald's Corporation (MCDC34) currently trades at R$60.93, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$28.46, 53.3% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of R$53.25 per share, and 2 of the 20 models we run sit above the R$60.93 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at R$5.58, and 18 of the 20 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: R$17.73 (bear) to R$44.28 (bull), the price of R$60.93 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
McDonald's Corporation reported revenue of $26.9B in FY2025 versus $23.2B in FY2021, a compound +3.7%/yr. Reported net income was $8.6B in FY2025, compounding +3.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap R$964B (≈ $185B) · P/E ratio 19.4 · P/S ratio 6.18 · EPS (TTM) R$3.14 · Dividend yield 11.9% · Net margin 31.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 19.7% · Operating margin 44.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at −53%, MCDC34 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R$17.73
Fair Value R$28.46
Bull R$44.28
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
R$13.44
R$24.24
R$41.24
78
Growth DCF
R$14.43
R$24.77
R$40.19
76
Owner Earnings
R$14.24
R$25.35
R$42.84
74
All 21 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
R$13.44
R$24.24
R$41.24
78
Owner Earnings
R$14.24
R$25.35
R$42.84
74
5Y Revenue Exit
R$0.7800
R$5.04
R$10.43
65
5Y EBITDA Exit
R$22.28
R$42.25
R$65.88
73
5Y P/E Exit
R$24.28
R$45.71
R$68.35
69
10Y Revenue Exit
R$5.13
R$9.67
R$14.65
65
10Y EBITDA Exit
R$18.66
R$34.47
R$53.12
67
10Y P/E Exit
R$19.90
R$36.77
R$54.84
63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
R$21.40
R$41.54
R$51.92
66
EPV
R$23.20
R$29.47
R$34.95
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
R$17.26
R$24.08
R$31.05
69
DDM Multi-Stage
R$17.26
R$24.08
R$32.08
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
R$51.92
R$69.23
R$86.54
63
P/S Multiple
R$8.89
R$11.86
R$14.82
58
EV/EBIT
R$47.08
R$67.58
R$88.07
65
EV/EBITDA
R$33.86
R$49.95
R$66.03
66
EV/Revenue
n/a
n/a
R$1.01
50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
R$14.43
R$24.77
R$40.19
76
Rev-Margin DCF
R$0.7800
R$5.58
R$11.20
66
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder
R$24.16
R$31.83
R$39.46
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
R$37.27
R$53.25
R$69.22
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
68/100
Of which business quality 66 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 36
Profitability
64
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
34
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
76
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
68
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
57
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
88
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
19
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
6
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
88
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
79/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.6% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.6%
’15
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’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
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’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+20.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)11.9%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.38% → 46%
MCDC34 screens overvalued: fair value 53% below the price. Compare with Starbucks Corporation →
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Context: sector, industry, market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Starbucks Corporation SBUX | $93.96 | $35.83 | −62% |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG | $32.32 | $35.55 | +10% |
| Yum! Brands, Inc YUM | $138.28 | $76.78 | −44% |
| Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR | $71.48 | $73.34 | +3% |
| Darden Restaurants, Inc DRI | $199.75 | $175.20 | −12% |
| Yum China Holdings YUMC | $40.80 | $50.76 | +24% |
| Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH | $158.45 | $128.55 | −19% |
| Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ | $301.81 | $233.22 | −23% |
| Dutch Bros Inc BROS | $37.89 | $10.27 | −73% |
| Guming Holdings 1364 | HK$21.64 | HK$31.58 | +46% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is McDonald's Corporation (MCDC34) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$28.46 versus a price of R$60.93, about −53% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MCDC34?
Our model-based fair value for McDonald's Corporation is R$28.46 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$60.93.
What is the quality score of MCDC34?
McDonald's Corporation has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for McDonald's Corporation (MCDC34)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$28.46 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 21 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$17.73, optimistic scenario R$44.28. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the McDonald's Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$28.46, about −53% upside versus a price of R$60.93 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R$17.73, optimistic scenario R$44.28. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of McDonald's Corporation (MCDC34)?
McDonald's Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $27.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
Does McDonald's Corporation pay a dividend?
McDonald's Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 11.92% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 28, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of McDonald's Corporation (MCDC34)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For McDonald's Corporation it is R$28.46 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of R$60.93. It is the blended result of 21 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is McDonald's Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, MCDC34 trades above its calculated fair value: price R$60.93, fair value R$28.46, a gap of about −53% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MCDC34?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$60.93); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$28.46). For McDonald's Corporation the two are R$32.47 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is McDonald's Corporation worth?
The market values McDonald's Corporation at about R$964B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is R$60.93; our models calculate a fair value of R$28.46 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MCDC34?
Our models span a range for McDonald's Corporation: cautious scenario R$17.73, base R$28.46, optimistic R$44.28 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price R$60.93). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is MCDC34 from its 52-week high?
McDonald's Corporation trades at R$60.93, about 31% below its 52-week high of R$88.26 and 2% above the low of R$59.65 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$28.46 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to McDonald's Corporation?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Starbucks Corporation, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc, Yum! Brands, Inc, Restaurant Brands International Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is McDonald's Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price R$60.93, calculated fair value R$28.46 (−53%), Quality Score 68/100, from 21 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MCDC34 calculated?
We run McDonald's Corporation through 21 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$28.46, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. McDonald's Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of McDonald's Corporation (MCDC34)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was R$60.93. Our model-based fair value is R$28.46, about −53% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with McDonald's Corporation right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (R$44.28). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (68/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (R$17.73 to R$44.28) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of McDonald's Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of McDonald's Corporation (MCDC34)?
The market capitalisation of McDonald's Corporation is R$964B (≈ $185B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of McDonald's Corporation (MCDC34)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of McDonald's Corporation is 19.4. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of McDonald's Corporation (MCDC34)?
The price-to-sales ratio of McDonald's Corporation is 6.18 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of McDonald's Corporation (MCDC34)?
Earnings per share at McDonald's Corporation are R$3.14 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 19.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of McDonald's Corporation (MCDC34)?
The dividend yield of McDonald's Corporation is 11.9%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of McDonald's Corporation (MCDC34)?
The net margin of McDonald's Corporation is 31.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of McDonald's Corporation (MCDC34)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of McDonald's Corporation is 19.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of McDonald's Corporation (MCDC34)?
The operating margin of McDonald's Corporation is 44.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at McDonald's Corporation (MCDC34)?
Revenue at McDonald's Corporation is growing +9.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at McDonald's Corporation (MCDC34)?
Earnings per share at McDonald's Corporation are growing +6.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does McDonald's Corporation (MCDC34) generate?
The free cash flow of McDonald's Corporation is $7.2B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does McDonald's Corporation (MCDC34) carry?
The net debt of McDonald's Corporation is $39.2B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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