Mobico Group (MCG) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · GB · Market cap 156M GBX
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 7 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from £1.65 to £0.1800 (−89.1%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price −5.0% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 31% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The model range is unusually wide (£0.0862 to £0.2749). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £0.1792 – £3.05 · fair‑value band £0.0862 – £0.2749 · the £0.2616 price screens above the £0.1800 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Mobico Group (MCG) currently trades at £0.2616, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £0.1800, implying the stock looks roughly 31.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Mobico Group generated revenue of £2.7B at a net margin of -10.8%. Revenue declined 19.6% year over year. Net debt stands at £1.1B. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from £0.0862 (bear case) to £0.2749 (bull case); at £0.2616, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -28% fair-value upside, at -31%, MCG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 7 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (£2.29) versus Earnings-Based (£0.0600). Highest evidence: ROIC Compounder (72).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 38 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 25
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Mobico Group Plc designs, mobilizes, and operates transport services worldwide. The company operates through UK, German Rail, ALSA, and North America segments. It owns and leases vehicles.
Full company description
Mobico Group Plc designs, mobilizes, and operates transport services worldwide. The company operates through UK, German Rail, ALSA, and North America segments. It owns and leases vehicles. The company also provides student transportation, urban bus, regional/long haul coach, and rail; corporate shuttle; transit and shuttle; and charter, private hire, and leisure. In addition, it operates alternative fuel technologies, such as electric and hydrogen. The company has a fleet of approximately 27,300 vehicles, including sedans, minivans, cars and minibuses, double-decker buses, and long-haul coaches. It provides its services to cities, businesses, healthcare, and education providers, as well as direct to customers. The company was formerly known as National Express Group PLC and changed its name to Mobico Group Plc in June 2023. Mobico Group Plc was incorporated in 1991 and is based in Birmingham, the United Kingdom.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Mobico Group reported revenue of £2.7B in FY2025 versus £2.2B in FY2021, a compound +6.0%/yr. Reported net income was −£294M in FY2025.
MCG screens 31% overvalued. Compare with Union Pacific Corporation →
Peer Group
Railroads · 111 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Railroads median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Railroads stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union Pacific Corporation UNP | $301.75 | $144.60 | -52% |
| CSX Corporation CSX | $49.41 | $12.85 | -74% |
| Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited CP | $92.91 | $35.00 | -62% |
| Canadian National Railway Company CNI | $128.22 | $92.63 | -28% |
| Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC | $327.47 | $117.90 | -64% |
| Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation WAB | $259.71 | $144.80 | -44% |
| Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co 601816 | ¥4.82 | ¥5.65 | +17% |
| CRRC Corporation 601766 | ¥5.65 | ¥9.53 | +69% |
| Daqin Railway Co 601006 | ¥4.85 | ¥6.24 | +29% |
| Hyundai Rotem Company 064350 | 167,700 KRW | 125,182 KRW | -25% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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