Mobico Group Plc (MCG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Mobico Group Plc £0.18, price £0.24, upside -21.7%, quality 42 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £0.1732 – £2.67 · fair‑value band £0.0883 – £0.1845 · the £0.2356 price screens above the £0.1845 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Mobico Group Plc designs, mobilizes, and operates transport services worldwide. The company operates through UK, German Rail, ALSA, and North America segments. It owns and leases vehicles.
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Mobico Group Plc designs, mobilizes, and operates transport services worldwide. The company operates through UK, German Rail, ALSA, and North America segments. It owns and leases vehicles. The company also provides student transportation, urban bus, regional/long haul coach, and rail; corporate shuttle; transit and shuttle; and charter, private hire, and leisure. In addition, it operates alternative fuel technologies, such as electric and hydrogen. The company has a fleet of approximately 27,300 vehicles, including sedans, minivans, cars and minibuses, double-decker buses, and long-haul coaches. It provides its services to cities, businesses, healthcare, and education providers, as well as direct to customers. The company was formerly known as National Express Group PLC and changed its name to Mobico Group Plc in June 2023. Mobico Group Plc was incorporated in 1991 and is based in Birmingham, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Mobico Group Plc (MCG) currently trades at £0.2356, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £0.1845, implying the stock looks roughly 27.7% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of £0.3500 per share, and 5 of the 7 models we run sit above the £0.2356 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at £0.0600, and 2 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: £0.0883 (bear) to £0.1845 (bull), the price of £0.2356 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Mobico Group Plc reported revenue of 2.7B GBX in FY2025 versus 2.2B GBX in FY2021, a compound +6.0%/yr. Reported net income was −294M GBX in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 156M GBX · P/S ratio 0.06 · EPS (TTM) £−0.1900 · Dividend yield 13.7% · Net margin −10.7% · Return on equity −1,616% · Return on assets (EBIT) −2.2% · Operating margin 7.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 36% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 0% fair-value upside, at −22%, MCG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear £0.0883Fair Value £0.1845Bull £0.1845
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.22/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−19.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.6% a year
Revenue growth 36 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.4%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−19.5% (2020) → 4.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Railroads · 115 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score42 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−22% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−11% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−20% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)13.7% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Railroads median · lower = cheaper
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (TTM)0.08× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA2.7× · Cheapest 25%
PEG1.95× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)4· sector 20
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 21
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 31
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 88
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 44
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Mobico Group Plc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MCG
Frequently asked questions
Is Mobico Group Plc (MCG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £0.1845 versus a price of £0.2356, about −22% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MCG?
Our model-based fair value for Mobico Group Plc is £0.1845 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £0.2356.
What is the quality score of MCG?
Mobico Group Plc has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mobico Group Plc (MCG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £0.1845 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario £0.0883, optimistic scenario £0.1845. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mobico Group Plc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £0.1845, about −22% upside versus a price of £0.2356 (overvalued). Cautious scenario £0.0883, optimistic scenario £0.1845. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mobico Group Plc (MCG)?
Mobico Group Plc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £2.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Mobico Group Plc pay a dividend?
Mobico Group Plc currently shows a dividend yield of about 13.68% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Mobico Group Plc (MCG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mobico Group Plc it is £0.1845 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of £0.2356. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Mobico Group Plc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, MCG trades above its calculated fair value: price £0.2356, fair value £0.1845, a gap of about −22% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MCG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£0.2356); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£0.1845). For Mobico Group Plc the two are £0.0511 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mobico Group Plc worth?
The market values Mobico Group Plc at about 156M GBX (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is £0.2356; our models calculate a fair value of £0.1845 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MCG?
Our models span a range for Mobico Group Plc: cautious scenario £0.0883, base £0.1845, optimistic £0.1845 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price £0.2356). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of MCG?
The PEG ratio of Mobico Group Plc is 1.95 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mobico Group Plc (MCG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mobico Group Plc (as of Sep 23, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 42/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MCG from its 52-week high?
Mobico Group Plc trades at £0.2356, about 25% below its 52-week high of £0.3144 and 36% above the low of £0.1732 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £0.1845 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mobico Group Plc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Union Pacific Corporation, CSX Corporation, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited, Norfolk Southern Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mobico Group Plc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price £0.2356, calculated fair value £0.1845 (−22%), Quality Score 42/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MCG calculated?
We run Mobico Group Plc through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of £0.1845, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Mobico Group Plc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mobico Group Plc (MCG)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was £0.2356. Our model-based fair value is £0.1845, about −22% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mobico Group Plc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (£0.1845). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range (£0.0883 to £0.1845) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Mobico Group Plc
How large is the market capitalisation of Mobico Group Plc (MCG)?
The market capitalisation of Mobico Group Plc is 156M GBX. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Mobico Group Plc (MCG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mobico Group Plc is 0.06 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Mobico Group Plc (MCG)?
Earnings per share at Mobico Group Plc are £−0.1900. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Mobico Group Plc (MCG)?
The dividend yield of Mobico Group Plc is 13.7%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Mobico Group Plc (MCG)?
The net margin of Mobico Group Plc is −10.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mobico Group Plc (MCG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mobico Group Plc is −1,616% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mobico Group Plc (MCG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mobico Group Plc is −2.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mobico Group Plc (MCG)?
The operating margin of Mobico Group Plc is 7.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mobico Group Plc (MCG)?
Revenue at Mobico Group Plc is growing −19.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Mobico Group Plc (MCG) generate?
The free cash flow of Mobico Group Plc is −59.7M GBX (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Mobico Group Plc (MCG) carry?
The net debt of Mobico Group Plc is 1.1B GBX (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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