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Mobico Group Plc (MCG) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Mobico Group Plc stock £0.15, price £0.44, that is 65.9% below the price, quality 41 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 5 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Industrials GB · ISIN GB0006215205

MG Mobico Group Plc logo Thin data Nov 4, 2026

Mobico Group Plc

MCG · LSE
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 66% below what the stock costs today.

Quality 41/100
Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +7.0 %/yr in GBP)
Negative equity (buybacks among others)
Revenue last quarter 20% below a year ago.
Fair value £0.1500 · Strongly overvalued
Loss-making · -10.0% net margin (TTM)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (3/10)
Narrow moat 17/100 · thin data
Thin data
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

£2.67 £0.1732 Fair Value £0.1500 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range £0.1732 – £2.67 · fair‑value band £0.1500 – £0.3500 · the £0.4400 price screens above the £0.1500 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.

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Company profile

Mobico Group Plc designs, mobilizes, and operates transport services worldwide. The company operates through UK, German Rail, ALSA, and North America segments. It owns and leases vehicles.

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The company also provides student transportation, urban bus, regional/long haul coach, and rail; corporate shuttle; transit and shuttle; and charter, private hire, and leisure. In addition, it operates alternative fuel technologies, such as electric and hydrogen.

The company has a fleet of approximately 27,300 vehicles, including sedans, minivans, cars and minibuses, double-decker buses, and long-haul coaches. It provides its services to cities, businesses, healthcare, and education providers, as well as direct to customers.

The company was formerly known as National Express Group PLC and changed its name to Mobico Group Plc in June 2023. Mobico Group Plc was incorporated in 1991 and is based in Birmingham, the United Kingdom.

Stock analysis

Mobico Group Plc (MCG) currently trades at £0.4400, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £0.1500, 66% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of £0.1500 per share, and 3 of the 5 models we run sit above the £0.4400 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at £0.0500, and 2 of the 5 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: £0.1500 (bear) to £0.3500 (bull), the price of £0.4400 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Mobico Group Plc reported revenue of £2.7B in FY2025 versus £2.2B in FY2021, a compound +6.0%/yr. Reported net income was −£294M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap £268M Small · P/S ratio 0.09 · EPS (TTM) £−0.1900 · Dividend yield 8.9% · Net margin −10.7% · Return on equity −1,616% · Return on assets (EBIT) −2.2% (5-year average) · Operating margin 7.3%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 17 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades at its 52-week high and 154% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at −66%, MCG screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear £0.1500 Fair Value £0.1500 Bull £0.3500
Price £0.4400 · Downside -65.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
EPV n/a £0.0500 £0.1600 68
ROIC Compounder n/a £0.1500 £0.3500 68
EV/EBITDA £3.26 £4.95 £6.64 66
All 5 models by family
Earnings-Based
EPV n/a £0.0500 £0.1600 68
Multiples
EV/EBIT £0.7900 £1.65 £2.52 62
EV/EBITDA £3.26 £4.95 £6.64 66
EV/Revenue £0.0500 £0.8400 £1.63 46
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder n/a £0.1500 £0.3500 68

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 41/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 21
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 45
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 12
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 15
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 92
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 20
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 73
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 100
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 85
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 22/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−19.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.6% a year
Revenue growth 36 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.4%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−19.5% (2020) → 4.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

MCG screens overvalued: fair value 66% below the price. Compare with Union Pacific Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Railroads · 108 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 41 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −65.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets −10.8% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −10.0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 7.3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −19.6% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months) 8.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.

Valuation Multiplesvs Railroads median · lower = cheaper

P/B Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (12 months) 0.10× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 5.3× · Cheapest 25%
PEG 1.95× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 18
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 20
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 91
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 42

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Railroads stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
CRRC Corporation 601766 ¥6.55 ¥9.21 +41% vs MCG
Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co 601816 ¥5.36 ¥5.84 +9% vs MCG
Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation WAB $283.59 $290.92 +3% vs MCG
Daqin Railway Co 601006 ¥4.88 ¥4.66 −5% vs MCG
Canadian National Railway Company CNI $124.06 $100.13 −19% vs MCG
Union Pacific Corporation UNP $290.16 $153.89 −47% vs MCG
Getlink SE GET €20.22 €10.47 −48% vs MCG
Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC $319.94 $132.55 −59% vs MCG
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited CP $92.17 $38.04 −59% vs MCG
CSX Corporation CSX $49.12 $12.92 −74% vs MCG

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Mobico Group Plc: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Mobico Group Plc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MCG

Frequently asked questions

Is Mobico Group Plc (MCG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £0.1500 versus a price of £0.4400, about 66% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MCG?
Our model-based fair value for Mobico Group Plc is £0.1500 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £0.4400.
What is the quality score of MCG?
Mobico Group Plc has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mobico Group Plc (MCG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £0.1500 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 5 valuation models. Cautious scenario £0.1500, optimistic scenario £0.3500. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mobico Group Plc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £0.1500, about 66% lower versus a price of £0.4400 (overvalued). Cautious scenario £0.1500, optimistic scenario £0.3500. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mobico Group Plc (MCG)?
Mobico Group Plc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £2.7B (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
Does Mobico Group Plc pay a dividend?
Mobico Group Plc currently shows a dividend yield of 8.88% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Mobico Group Plc (MCG)?
Mobico Group Plc has a dividend yield of 8.9%.
What is the intrinsic value of Mobico Group Plc (MCG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mobico Group Plc it is £0.1500 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of £0.4400. It is the blended result of 5 valuation models in 3 families (Earnings-Based, Multiples, Economic Profit).
Is Mobico Group Plc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, MCG trades above its calculated fair value: price £0.4400, fair value £0.1500, a gap of about −66% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MCG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£0.4400); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£0.1500). For Mobico Group Plc the two are £0.2900 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mobico Group Plc worth?
The market values Mobico Group Plc at about £268M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is £0.4400; our models calculate a fair value of £0.1500 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MCG?
Our models span a range for Mobico Group Plc: cautious scenario £0.1500, base £0.1500, optimistic £0.3500 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price £0.4400). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of MCG?
The PEG ratio of Mobico Group Plc is 1.95 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 4, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mobico Group Plc (MCG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mobico Group Plc (as of Nov 4, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MCG from its 52-week high?
Mobico Group Plc trades at £0.4400, at its 52-week high of £0.4400 and 154% above the low of £0.1732 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £0.1500 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mobico Group Plc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Union Pacific Corporation, CSX Corporation, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited, Norfolk Southern Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mobico Group Plc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price £0.4400, calculated fair value £0.1500 (−66%), Quality Score 41/100, from 5 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MCG calculated?
We run Mobico Group Plc through 5 models from 3 families: Earnings-Based, Multiples, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of £0.1500 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Mobico Group Plc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mobico Group Plc (MCG)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was £0.4400. Our model-based fair value is £0.1500, about 66% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mobico Group Plc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (£0.3500). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (£0.1500 to £0.3500) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Mobico Group Plc

How large is the market capitalisation of Mobico Group Plc (MCG)?
The market capitalisation of Mobico Group Plc is £268M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Mobico Group Plc (MCG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mobico Group Plc is 0.09 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Mobico Group Plc (MCG)?
Earnings per share at Mobico Group Plc are £−0.1900. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Mobico Group Plc (MCG)?
The dividend yield of Mobico Group Plc is 8.9%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Mobico Group Plc (MCG)?
The net margin of Mobico Group Plc is −10.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mobico Group Plc (MCG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mobico Group Plc is −1,616% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mobico Group Plc (MCG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mobico Group Plc is −2.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mobico Group Plc (MCG)?
The operating margin of Mobico Group Plc is 7.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mobico Group Plc (MCG)?
Revenue at Mobico Group Plc is growing −19.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Mobico Group Plc (MCG) generate?
The free cash flow of Mobico Group Plc is −£59.7M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Mobico Group Plc (MCG) carry?
The net debt of Mobico Group Plc is £1.1B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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