MC Mining Limited (MCZ) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 30, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of MC Mining Limited stock ZAR 1.35, price ZAR 3.30, upside -59.0%, quality 18 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 31, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R0.7086 – R5.38 · fair‑value band R1.00 – R2.01 · the R3.30 price screens above the R1.35 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 31, 2026.
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MC Mining Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and operation of steelmaking and thermal coal projects in South Africa.
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Its flagship project is the 67% owned Makhado steelmaking hard coking coal project located in the Soutpansberg coalfield in the Limpopo province. The company was formerly known as Coal of Africa Limited and changed its name to MC Mining Limited in November 2017.
MC Mining Limited was incorporated in 1979 and is based in Melbourne, Australia.
Stock analysis
MC Mining Limited (MCZ) currently trades at R3.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R1.35, 59.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the data coverage at low.
Scenario range: R1.00 (bear) to R2.01 (bull), the price of R3.30 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 18/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
MC Mining Limited reported revenue of $7.4M in FY2026 versus $20.7M in FY2021, a compound −18.5%/yr. Reported net income was −$17.3M in FY2026.
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 5 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 74% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −59%, MCZ screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearR1.00Fair Value R1.35BullR2.01
Price R3.30 · Upside -59.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham)R1.19R1.59R2.3854
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)R1.19R1.59R2.3854
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−45.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−18.5%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−16.9%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−22.3% (2021) → −239.9% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Thermal Coal · 81 stocks
Beats the industry median on 0/6 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score18 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−59.0% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−8.6% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−90.5% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Thermal Coal median · lower = cheaper
P/B1.38× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)22.42× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 13
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 64
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 27
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 62
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is MC Mining Limited (MCZ) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 31, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R1.35 versus a price of R3.30, about −59% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MCZ?
Our model-based fair value for MC Mining Limited is R1.35 (as of Oct 31, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R3.30.
What is the quality score of MCZ?
MC Mining Limited has a Quality Score of 18/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for MC Mining Limited (MCZ)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R1.35 (as of Oct 31, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario R1.00, optimistic scenario R2.01. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the MC Mining Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R1.35, about −59% upside versus a price of R3.30 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R1.00, optimistic scenario R2.01. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of MC Mining Limited (MCZ)?
MC Mining Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $7.4M (latest available figure, as of Oct 31, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of MC Mining Limited (MCZ)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For MC Mining Limited it is R1.35 per share (as of Oct 31, 2026), against a price of R3.30. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is MC Mining Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 31, 2026, MCZ trades above its calculated fair value: price R3.30, fair value R1.35, a gap of about −59% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MCZ?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R3.30); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R1.35). For MC Mining Limited the two are R1.95 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is MC Mining Limited worth?
The market values MC Mining Limited at about 2.8B ZAR (market capitalisation, as of Oct 31, 2026). Per share that is R3.30; our models calculate a fair value of R1.35 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MCZ?
Our models span a range for MC Mining Limited: cautious scenario R1.00, base R1.35, optimistic R2.01 per share (as of Oct 31, 2026, price R3.30). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of MC Mining Limited (MCZ)?
Balance-sheet figures for MC Mining Limited (as of Oct 31, 2026): return on equity −17.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 18/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MCZ from its 52-week high?
MC Mining Limited trades at R3.30, about 18% below its 52-week high of R4.00 and 74% above the low of R1.90 (as of Oct 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R1.35 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to MC Mining Limited?
From the same area (Energy) we also value China Shenhua Energy Company, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company, Adani Enterprises Limited, China Coal Energy Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is MC Mining Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 31, 2026: price R3.30, calculated fair value R1.35 (−59%), Quality Score 18/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MCZ calculated?
We run MC Mining Limited through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R1.35, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. MC Mining Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of MC Mining Limited (MCZ)?
The closing price on Oct 30, 2026 was R3.30. Our model-based fair value is R1.35, about −59% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with MC Mining Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (R2.01). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (18/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (R1.00 to R2.01) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of MC Mining Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of MC Mining Limited (MCZ)?
The market capitalisation of MC Mining Limited is 2.8B ZAR. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of MC Mining Limited (MCZ)?
Earnings per share at MC Mining Limited are R−0.4000. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of MC Mining Limited (MCZ)?
The return on equity (ROE) of MC Mining Limited is −17.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of MC Mining Limited (MCZ)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of MC Mining Limited is −6.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of MC Mining Limited (MCZ)?
The operating margin of MC Mining Limited is −1,074% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at MC Mining Limited (MCZ)?
Revenue at MC Mining Limited is growing −90.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −31.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does MC Mining Limited (MCZ) generate?
The free cash flow of MC Mining Limited is −$53.1M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does MC Mining Limited (MCZ) carry?
The net debt of MC Mining Limited is $36.6M (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Oct 31, 2026