MDU Resources Group (MDU) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · US · Market cap $4.4B
MDU Resources Group
MDU · US
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 14 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 17, 2026, revised from $12.72 to $15.69 (+23.3%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −1.3% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 24% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- Our model range runs from $13.58 (bear) to $20.39 (bull), base $15.69. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 47/100 (below-average quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $8.46 – $22.65 · fair‑value band $13.58 – $20.39 · the $20.55 price screens above the $15.69 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
MDU Resources Group (MDU) currently trades at $20.55, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $15.69, implying the stock looks roughly 23.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, MDU Resources Group generated revenue of $1.8B at a net margin of 10.5%. Revenue declined 10.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.7%. Net debt stands at $2.7B. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $13.58 (bear case) to $20.39 (bull case); at $20.55, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -19% fair-value upside, at -24%, MDU screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 14 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($12.72) versus Earnings-Based ($1.18). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 64
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
MDU Resources Group, Inc. engages in the regulated energy delivery businesses in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Electric, Natural Gas Distribution, and Pipeline.
Full company description
MDU Resources Group, Inc. engages in the regulated energy delivery businesses in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Electric, Natural Gas Distribution, and Pipeline. It generates, transmits, and distributes electricity in Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming through approximately 3,400 miles of transmission and 4,900 miles of distribution lines, as well as 86 transmission and 299 distribution substations. The company also distributes natural gas in Idaho, Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, Oregon, South Dakota, Washington, and Wyoming through approximately 22,000 miles of distribution and 540 miles transmission systems; and supplies related value-added services. In addition, it provides natural gas transportation and underground storage services through a regulated pipeline system primarily in the Rocky Mountain and northern Great Plains regions; and cathodic protection non-regulated energy-related services. Further, the company offers transportation and storage services. MDU Resources Group, Inc. was incorporated in 1924 and is headquartered in Bismarck, North Dakota.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
MDU Resources Group reported revenue of $1.9B in FY2025 versus $3.5B in FY2021, a compound −14.2%/yr. Reported net income was $190M in FY2025, compounding −15.8%/yr from FY2021.
MDU screens 24% overvalued. Compare with Naturgy Energy Group →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- MDU Resources Group Q2 Earnings Call Highlights
- MDU Resources Group Inc (MDU) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Q2 Results and ...
- MDU Resources Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates, Revenues Increase Y/Y
- MDU Resources (MDU) Tops Q2 Earnings Estimates
Peer Group
Utilities - Regulated Gas · 104 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Gas median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 66/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Regulated Gas stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Naturgy Energy Group NTGY | €28.84 | €35.80 | +24% |
| Atmos Energy Corporation ATO | $177.68 | $85.67 | -52% |
| NiSource Inc NI | $47.07 | $28.59 | -39% |
| Uniper SE UN0 | €42.80 | €49.13 | +15% |
| The Hong Kong and China Gas Company 0003 | HK$7.03 | HK$5.08 | -28% |
| Italgas S.p.A IG | €9.98 | €8.11 | -19% |
| GAIL (India) Limited GAIL | ₹171.71 | ₹147.74 | -14% |
| Adani Total Gas Limited ATGL | ₹723.90 | ₹101.36 | -86% |
| ENN Natural Gas Co 600803 | ¥17.30 | ¥25.71 | +49% |
| UGI Corporation UGI | $35.84 | $27.13 | -24% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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