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MDU Resources Group (MDU) Fair Value & Analysis

Utilities · US · Market cap $4.4B

Price$21.59
Fair Value$12.72
Upside-41.1%
Quality95/100
Evidence: Medium Range $11.01 – $16.53

Analysis

MDU Resources Group (MDU) currently trades at $21.59, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $12.72 — implying the stock looks roughly 41.1% overvalued today. We read business quality at 95/100 (high quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium — the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

About the company

MDU Resources Group, Inc. engages in the regulated energy delivery businesses in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Electric, Natural Gas Distribution, and Pipeline. It generates, transmits, and distributes electricity in Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming through approximately 3,400 miles of transmission and 4,900 miles of distribution lines, as well as 86 transmission and 299 distribution substations. The company also distributes natural gas in Idaho, Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, Oregon, South Dakota, Washington, and Wyoming through approximately 22,000 miles of distribution and 540 miles transmission systems; and supplies related value-added services. In addition, it provides natural gas transportation and underground storage services through a regulated pipeline system primarily in the Rocky Mountain and northern Great Plains regions; and cathodic protection non-regulated energy-related services. Further, the company offers transpo…

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How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data — nothing guessed.

Educational research only · not financial advice · no buy/sell recommendation. Model-based estimates are not certainties; their reliability depends on data quality and assumptions.