Melia Hotels (MEL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Melia Hotels is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.
Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
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Consumer Cyclical · ES · Market cap €2.4B · ISIN ES0176252718
At a glance
MHMelia HotelsMEL · MC
Price€9.89
Fair Value€15.84
Upside+60.2%
Quality50/100
A solid business, trading 38% below our fair value of €15.84.
As of Sep 6, 2026, the fair value of Melia Hotels is €15.84 per share against a price of €9.89, so the fair value sits 60% above the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +31.5 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 7.8% net margin
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (8/15)
!Moderate moat 47/100
!Weak on future: 19 out of 100
Evidence: HighRange €9.39 to €21.23
Fair value as of: Sep 6, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 4 days ago
Share price −1.1% over the past month.
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69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
Solid quality (50/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
A fairly wide model range (€9.39 to €21.23) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €3.97 – €12.29 · fair‑value band €9.39 – €21.23 · the €9.89 price screens below the €15.84 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 6, 2026.
Melia Hotels (MEL) currently trades at €9.89, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €15.84, implying the stock looks roughly 37.6% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €16.90 per share, and 18 of the 26 models we run sit above the €9.89 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €2.57, and 8 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Melia Hotels generated revenue of €2.1B at a net margin of 7.8%. Revenue grew 3.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 17.8%. Net debt stands at €2.2B. Fundamentals as of Sep 6, 2026
Scenario range: €9.39 (bear) to €21.23 (bull), the price of €9.89 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 51% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −60% fair-value upside, at 60%, MEL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.5129 per share) are deliberately not added.
Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →
ModelBear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence
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Key figures & financial health
P/E ratio13.4
P/S ratio1.09P/E × margin
EPS (TTM)€0.7400price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.4
Dividend yield2.4%payout 32.5%
Net margin8.2%FY2025
Return on equity17.8%TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT)3.6%avg 5y
Operating margin5.0%TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM)€2.1BTTM
Revenue growth (YoY)+3.8%3y avg +7.3%
EPS growth (YoY)−13.4%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow€338MFY2025
Net debt€2.2BFY2025 · ≈ 6.5 yrs of FCF
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 6, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality50/100
Of which business quality 50
· Market factors (momentum, volatility) 62
Profitability41
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth35
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow78
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength18
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment55
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility80
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum51
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum59
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance82
Buybacks instead of dilution
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Meliá Hotels International, S.A. owns, operates, manages, leases, and franchises hotels in Spain, Latin America, the rest of Europe, and Asia. It operates through Hotel Management, Hotel Business, Other Business Linked to Hotel Management, and Real Estate segments.
Full company description
Meliá Hotels International, S.A. owns, operates, manages, leases, and franchises hotels in Spain, Latin America, the rest of Europe, and Asia. It operates through Hotel Management, Hotel Business, Other Business Linked to Hotel Management, and Real Estate segments. The company operates hotels under the Gran Meliá Hotels & Resorts, the Meliá Collection, ME by Meliá, Paradisus by Meliá, Meliá Hotels & Resorts, INNSIDE by Meliá, ZEL, Sol by Meliá, Affiliated by Meliá brands, as well as Circle by Meliá and Club Meliá brands. It also engages in the operation of vacation club; casino or tour operation activities; and real estate business. In addition, the company offers Meliá Rewards; and Meliá PRO, a platform for professionals. The company was formerly known as Sol Meliá, S.A. and changed its name to Meliá Hotels International, S.A. in June 2011. The company was founded in 1956 and is headquartered in Palma de Mallorca, Spain.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Melia Hotels reported revenue of €2.1B in FY2025 versus €827M in FY2021, a compound +25.9%/yr. Reported net income was €170M in FY2025.
Growth Quality 95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
€2.1B
Latest YoY
+3.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+7.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+31.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (25Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−15.5%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+11.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+9.3%
Dividend yield2.4%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 9.3% vs 10Y 15.6%, flattening
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−82.4% (2020) → 15.2% (2025) · rising
Worst earnings drop553% (2020) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in EUR
Revenue+25.9%/yr
FY21€827M
FY22€1.7B
FY23€1.9B
FY24€2.0B
FY25€2.1B
Net income
FY21−€193M
FY22€111M
FY23€118M
FY24€141M
FY25€170M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025)+10.4 % p.a.
Revenue per share+1.4 %
of which total revenue +2.1 % · buybacks/dilution −0.6 %
EBIT margin+3.6 %
Tax rate+3.2 %
Residual (interest, one-offs)+1.7 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Melia Hotels Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MEL
Peer Group
Lodging · 164 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation
Quality Score50 · Below median
Fair Value upside+57% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)18% · Top 25%
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)8% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth4% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.4% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.00× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiples vs Lodging median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)13.4× · Cheapest 25%
P/B3.25× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)1.31× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF8.1× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA7.6× · Cheaper than median
PEG14.53× · Priciest 25%
What the price implies (reverse DCF)
The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Melia Hotels deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.
Implied FCF growth, 10 years-2.9 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+31.5 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+2.7 %
FCF yield on price15.52 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models10.3 %
The price demands less growth than the company recently delivered: even a weaker business would justify the price. Ranking of the largest stocks →
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
This stockSector peers
VALUE100· sector 0
FUTURE19· sector 23
PAST71· sector 12
HEALTH50· sector 91
DIVIDEND49· sector 26
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
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As of Sep 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €15.84 versus a price of €9.89, about +60% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MEL?
Our model-based fair value for Melia Hotels is €15.84 (as of Sep 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €9.89.
What is the quality score of MEL?
Melia Hotels has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Melia Hotels (MEL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €15.84 (as of Sep 6, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario €9.39, optimistic scenario €21.23. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Melia Hotels stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €15.84, about +60% upside versus a price of €9.89 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €9.39, optimistic scenario €21.23. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Melia Hotels (MEL)?
Melia Hotels reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €2.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 6, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of MEL?
The net profit margin of Melia Hotels is about 7.8%, meaning it keeps roughly 7.8% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Melia Hotels pay a dividend?
Melia Hotels currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.43% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Melia Hotels (MEL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Melia Hotels would have to grow free cash flow by -2.9 % per year for ten years (discount rate 10.3 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +31.5 % per year. As of Sep 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MEL use?
Our models discount Melia Hotels at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.74, country premium for Spain. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is the intrinsic value of Melia Hotels (MEL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Melia Hotels it is €15.84 per share (as of Sep 6, 2026), against a price of €9.89. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Melia Hotels stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 6, 2026, MEL trades below its calculated fair value: price €9.89, fair value €15.84, a gap of about +60% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MEL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€9.89); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€15.84). For Melia Hotels the two are €5.95 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Melia Hotels worth?
The market values Melia Hotels at about €2.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 6, 2026). Per share that is €9.89; our models calculate a fair value of €15.84 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MEL?
Our models span a range for Melia Hotels: cautious scenario €9.39, base €15.84, optimistic €21.23 per share (as of Sep 6, 2026, price €9.89). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MEL?
Melia Hotels trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.4 (as of Sep 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €15.84 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 14.5, P/B 3.3, P/S 1.3, EV/EBITDA 7.6.
What is the PEG ratio of MEL?
The PEG ratio of Melia Hotels is 14.53 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Melia Hotels (MEL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Melia Hotels (as of Sep 6, 2026): return on equity 17.8%, debt of 1.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MEL from its 52-week high?
Melia Hotels trades at €9.89, about 18% below its 52-week high of €12.10 and 51% above the low of €6.53 (as of Sep 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €15.84 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Melia Hotels?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Marriott International, Inc, Hilton Worldwide Holdings, InterContinental Hotels Group, Hyatt Hotels Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Melia Hotels stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 6, 2026: price €9.89, calculated fair value €15.84 (+60%), Quality Score 50/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MEL calculated?
We run Melia Hotels through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €15.84, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
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