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Metrogas SA (METR) Fair Value & Analysis

Utilities · AR · Market cap 1.1T ARS

MS Metrogas SA METR · BA
Price2,253 ARS
Fair Value1,344 ARS
Upside-40.4%
Quality51/100
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Expensive Growth
Thin margins · 9.9% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers (12/13)
Moderate moat 56/100
Evidence: High Range 543.47 ARS – 1,808 ARS Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 6 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from 3,840 ARS to 1,344 ARS (−65.0%) since Aug 12, 2026.

A solid business, but screening 40% overvalued on our models.

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What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (1,808 ARS). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • The model range is unusually wide (543.47 ARS to 1,808 ARS). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

3,050 ARS 16.70 ARS Fair Value 1,344 ARS Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 16.70 ARS – 3,050 ARS · fair‑value band 543.47 ARS – 1,808 ARS · the 2,253 ARS price screens above the 1,344 ARS fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Metrogas SA (METR) currently trades at 2,253 ARS, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 1,344 ARS, implying the stock looks roughly 40.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Metrogas SA generated revenue of 1.2T ARS at a net margin of 9.9%. Revenue grew 4.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 14.0%. Net debt stands at 5.0B ARS. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 543.47 ARS (bear case) to 1,808 ARS (bull case); at 2,253 ARS, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 125% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at -40%, METR screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF 1,185 ARS 2,347 ARS 4,300 ARS 80
Residual Income 1,651 ARS 2,245 ARS 7,997 ARS 76
Rev-Margin DCF 3,798 ARS 7,445 ARS 15,023 ARS 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 1,250 ARS 1,947 ARS 4,225 ARS 38
Owner Earnings 4,155 ARS 9,585 ARS 21,494 ARS 31
5Y Revenue Exit 3,411 ARS 6,534 ARS 13,130 ARS 39
5Y EBITDA Exit 3,333 ARS 6,377 ARS 12,367 ARS 41
5Y P/E Exit 2,805 ARS 6,676 ARS 12,047 ARS 38
10Y Revenue Exit 2,717 ARS 7,523 ARS 11,110 ARS 36
10Y EBITDA Exit 2,831 ARS 7,351 ARS 15,614 ARS 37
10Y P/E Exit 2,437 ARS 6,186 ARS 12,576 ARS 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 1,561 ARS 10,889 ARS 15,281 ARS 54
Lynch FV 5,626 ARS 8,037 ARS 10,448 ARS 50
PEG = 1.0 5,626 ARS 8,037 ARS 10,448 ARS 46
EPV 3,698 ARS 4,331 ARS 4,894 ARS 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 1.21 ARS 2.65 ARS 4.45 ARS 70
DDM Multi-Stage 1.21 ARS 2.17 ARS 2.76 ARS 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple 3,100 ARS 4,133 ARS 5,167 ARS 63
P/S Multiple 2,928 ARS 3,904 ARS 4,880 ARS 58
P/B Multiple 2,274 ARS 3,032 ARS 3,790 ARS 55
EV/EBIT 4,595 ARS 6,089 ARS 7,583 ARS 53
EV/EBITDA 3,897 ARS 5,158 ARS 6,419 ARS 54
EV/Revenue 3,738 ARS 5,292 ARS 6,846 ARS 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 842.24 ARS 1,129 ARS 1,684 ARS 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 1,185 ARS 2,347 ARS 4,300 ARS 80
Rev-Margin DCF 3,798 ARS 7,445 ARS 15,023 ARS 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income 1,651 ARS 2,245 ARS 7,997 ARS 76
ROIC Compounder 5,170 ARS 8,714 ARS 11,083 ARS 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 7,031 ARS 10,044 ARS 13,057 ARS 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (10,044 ARS) versus Dividend Discount (2.17 ARS). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 1.2T ARS
Revenue growth (YoY) +4.5%
Net margin 9.9%
Return on equity 14.0%
Free cash flow 36.3B ARS FY2025
P/E ratio 9.1 as of Jun 18, 2026
More key figures
Operating margin 15.2%
EPS (TTM) 214.70 ARS
EPS growth (YoY) -28.2%
Net debt 5.0B ARS FY2022

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 51/100

Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 47

Profitability 57
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 45
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 21
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 68
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 29
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 38
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 57
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

MetroGAS S.A. engages in the distribution of natural gas primarily in Argentina. The company was formerly known as Distribuidora de Gas Metropolitano SA. MetroGAS S.A. was incorporated in 1992 and is based in Buenos Aires, Argentina. MetroGAS S.A. operates as a subsidiary of YPF Sociedad Anónima.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Metrogas SA reported revenue of 1.2T ARS in FY2025 versus 55.7B ARS in FY2021, a compound +116.2%/yr. Reported net income was 131B ARS in FY2025.

Growth Quality 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
1.2T ARS
Latest YoY
+0.0%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+124.8%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+89.6%
Avg. growth/yr (10Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+74.6%
Revenue +116.2%/yr
FY21 55.7B ARS
FY22 107B ARS
FY23 706B ARS
FY24 1.2T ARS
FY25 1.2T ARS
Net income
FY21 −4.4B ARS
FY22 5.7B ARS
FY23 208B ARS
FY24 203B ARS
FY25 131B ARS

METR screens 40% overvalued. Compare with Naturgy Energy Group →

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Metrogas SA · Fair Value
1,344 ARS −40%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Metrogas SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/METR

Peer Group

Utilities - Regulated Gas · 103 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 51 · Above median
Fair Value upside −40% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 14% · Top 25%
Return on assets 9% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 10% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 15% · Above median
Revenue growth 5% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.05× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Gas median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 9.1× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 1.16× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.90× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 0.0× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 4.6× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 27
FUTURE23 · sector 0
PAST56 · sector 34
HEALTH97 · sector 87
DIVIDEND0 · sector 71

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Utilities - Regulated Gas stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Naturgy Energy Group NTGY €28.94 €31.58 +9%
Atmos Energy Corporation ATO $169.59 $85.67 -49%
NiSource Inc NI $42.50 $28.59 -33%
Uniper SE UN0 €47.45 €48.32 +2%
The Hong Kong and China Gas Company 0003 HK$6.76 HK$4.79 -29%
GAIL (India) Limited GAIL ₹177.95 ₹130.21 -27%
Adani Total Gas Limited ATGL ₹654.05 ₹101.36 -85%
ENN Natural Gas Co 600803 ¥17.32 ¥25.71 +48%
ENN Energy Holdings 2688 HK$47.16 HK$107.98 +129%
China Suntien Green Energy Corporation 600956 ¥7.26 ¥7.37 +2%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Metrogas SA (METR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 1,344 ARS versus a price of 2,253 ARS, about −40% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of METR?
Our model-based fair value for Metrogas SA is 1,344 ARS (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 2,253 ARS.
What is the quality score of METR?
Metrogas SA has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Metrogas SA (METR)?
Metrogas SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.2T ARS (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of METR?
The net profit margin of Metrogas SA is about 9.9%, meaning it keeps roughly 9.9% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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