Metrogas SA (METR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Metrogas SA ARS 1,298, price ARS 2,287, upside -43.2%, quality 49 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 16.70 ARS – 3,050 ARS · fair‑value band 593.85 ARS – 1,808 ARS · the 2,287 ARS price screens above the 1,298 ARS fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
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MetroGAS S.A. engages in the distribution of natural gas primarily in Argentina. The company was formerly known as Distribuidora de Gas Metropolitano SA. MetroGAS S.A. was incorporated in 1992 and is based in Buenos Aires, Argentina. MetroGAS S.A. operates as a subsidiary of YPF Sociedad Anónima.
Stock analysis
Metrogas SA (METR) currently trades at 2,287 ARS, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 1,298 ARS, 43.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 10,044 ARS per share, and 22 of the 26 models we run sit above the 2,287 ARS price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 1,129 ARS, and 4 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 593.85 ARS (bear) to 1,808 ARS (bull), the price of 2,287 ARS sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Metrogas SA reported revenue of 1.2T ARS in FY2025 versus 55.7B ARS in FY2021, a compound +116.2%/yr. Reported net income was 131B ARS in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 1.3T ARS (≈ $854M) · P/E ratio 10.5 · P/S ratio 1.12 · EPS (TTM) 217.74 ARS · Dividend yield 7.7% · Net margin 10.7% · Return on equity 13.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 77% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at −43%, METR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 593.85 ARSFair Value 1,298 ARSBull 1,808 ARS
Price 2,287 ARS · Upside -43.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (31.91 ARS per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+124.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+89.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +74.6% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+74.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years), in ARS ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in ARS: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+14.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)7.7%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1% → 19%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+42.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Argentina: IMF forecast 13.8% a year to 2030) that is about +24.7% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Gas · 103 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score49 · Below median
Fair Value upside−43.2% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)13.4% · Top 25%
Return on assets9.8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)10.2% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)21.9% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth10.7% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)7.7% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.05× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Gas median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)10.5× · Cheapest 25%
P/B1.36× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)1.02× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF35.9× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA4.6× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 40
FUTURE (revenue growth)54· sector 18
PAST (return on equity)53· sector 35
HEALTH (low debt)97· sector 83
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 73
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Metrogas SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/METR
Frequently asked questions
Is Metrogas SA (METR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 1,298 ARS versus a price of 2,287 ARS, about −43% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of METR?
Our model-based fair value for Metrogas SA is 1,298 ARS (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 2,287 ARS.
What is the quality score of METR?
Metrogas SA has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Metrogas SA (METR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 1,298 ARS (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 593.85 ARS, optimistic scenario 1,808 ARS. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Metrogas SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 1,298 ARS, about −43% upside versus a price of 2,287 ARS (overvalued). Cautious scenario 593.85 ARS, optimistic scenario 1,808 ARS. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Metrogas SA (METR)?
Metrogas SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.3T ARS (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
Does Metrogas SA pay a dividend?
Metrogas SA currently shows a dividend yield of about 7.68% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into Metrogas SA (METR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Metrogas SA would have to grow free cash flow by +42.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 19.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +89.6 % per year. As of Oct 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of METR use?
Our models discount Metrogas SA at 19.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.17, country premium for Argentina. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Metrogas SA that is +42.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (19.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Metrogas SA (METR) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Metrogas SA grew +89.6 % a year. The price currently implies +42.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Metrogas SA (METR) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Metrogas SA (+42.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Metrogas SA (METR)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.79 %: that much free cash flow Metrogas SA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (19.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Metrogas SA (METR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Metrogas SA it is 1,298 ARS per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of 2,287 ARS. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Metrogas SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, METR trades above its calculated fair value: price 2,287 ARS, fair value 1,298 ARS, a gap of about −43% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of METR?
No. The price is what the market pays today (2,287 ARS); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (1,298 ARS). For Metrogas SA the two are 988.90 ARS per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Metrogas SA worth?
The market values Metrogas SA at about 1.3T ARS (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is 2,287 ARS; our models calculate a fair value of 1,298 ARS per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about METR?
Our models span a range for Metrogas SA: cautious scenario 593.85 ARS, base 1,298 ARS, optimistic 1,808 ARS per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price 2,287 ARS). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of METR?
Metrogas SA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.5 (as of Oct 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 1,298 ARS is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.4, P/S 1.0, EV/EBITDA 4.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Metrogas SA (METR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Metrogas SA (as of Oct 2, 2026): return on equity 13.4%, debt of 0.05 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is METR from its 52-week high?
Metrogas SA trades at 2,287 ARS, about 18% below its 52-week high of 2,788 ARS and 77% above the low of 1,295 ARS (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 1,298 ARS is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Metrogas SA?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value Naturgy Energy Group, Atmos Energy Corporation, Uniper SE, NiSource Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Metrogas SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price 2,287 ARS, calculated fair value 1,298 ARS (−43%), Quality Score 49/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of METR calculated?
We run Metrogas SA through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 1,298 ARS, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Metrogas SA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Metrogas SA (METR)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was 2,287 ARS. Our model-based fair value is 1,298 ARS, about −43% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Metrogas SA right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (1,808 ARS). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide (593.85 ARS to 1,808 ARS). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Metrogas SA
How large is the market capitalisation of Metrogas SA (METR)?
The market capitalisation of Metrogas SA is 1.3T ARS (≈ $854M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Metrogas SA (METR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Metrogas SA is 1.12 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Metrogas SA (METR)?
Earnings per share at Metrogas SA are 217.74 ARS (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Metrogas SA (METR)?
The dividend yield of Metrogas SA is 7.7% (payout 80.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Metrogas SA (METR)?
The net margin of Metrogas SA is 10.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Metrogas SA (METR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Metrogas SA is 13.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Metrogas SA (METR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Metrogas SA is 7.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Metrogas SA (METR)?
The operating margin of Metrogas SA is 21.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Metrogas SA (METR)?
Revenue at Metrogas SA is growing +10.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +125%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Metrogas SA (METR)?
Earnings per share at Metrogas SA are growing +18.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Metrogas SA (METR) carry?
The net debt of Metrogas SA is 5.0B ARS (fiscal year 2022, ≈ 0.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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