Metsä Board Oyj (METSA) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · FI · Market cap €1.4B
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 12 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Share price +2.8% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 85% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€0.7500). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The models converge in a tight band (€0.6600 to €0.7500), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €4.05 – €11.98 · fair‑value band €0.6600 – €0.7500 · the €4.36 price screens above the €0.6600 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Metsä Board Oyj (METSA) currently trades at €4.36, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €0.6600, implying the stock looks roughly 84.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Metsä Board Oyj generated revenue of €1.7B at a net margin of -9.7%. Revenue declined 18.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -9.7%. Net debt stands at €255M. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €0.6600 (bear case) to €0.7500 (bull case); at €4.36, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -22% fair-value upside, at -85%, METSA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 12 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (€3.00) versus Multiples (€0.4400). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 39
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Metsä Board Oyj engages in the folding boxboard, fresh fibre linerboard, and market pulp businesses in Finland and internationally. It also provides food service boards, white kraft liners and lightweight fresh fibre paperboards.
Full company description
Metsä Board Oyj engages in the folding boxboard, fresh fibre linerboard, and market pulp businesses in Finland and internationally. It also provides food service boards, white kraft liners and lightweight fresh fibre paperboards. It offers its products to brand owners, packaging converters, manufacturers of corrugated products and merchants, and consumer and retail packaging industries. The company was formerly known as M-real Corporation and changed its name to Metsä Board Oyj in March 2012. Metsä Board Oyj was incorporated in 1986 and is headquartered in Espoo, Finland. Metsä Board Oyj is a subsidiary of Metsäliitto Cooperative.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Metsä Board Oyj reported revenue of €1.8B in FY2025 versus €2.1B in FY2021, a compound −3.9%/yr. Reported net income was −€157M in FY2025.
METSA screens 85% overvalued. Compare with Stora Enso Oyj →
Peer Group
Packaging & Containers · 273 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Packaging & Containers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stora Enso Oyj STER | kr 101.90 | kr 126.39 | +24% |
| ShenZhen YUTO Packaging Technology Co 002831 | ¥29.10 | ¥20.88 | -28% |
| SCG Packaging Public Company SCGP | 29.00 THB | 16.12 THB | -44% |
| AblePrint Technology Co 7734 | 2,850 TWD | 661.69 TWD | -77% |
| PT Fajar Surya Wisesa Tbk, FASW | 5,312 IDR | 1,194 IDR | -78% |
| Taiwan Hon Chuan Enterprise Co 9939 | 132.50 TWD | 127.06 TWD | -4% |
| Time Technoplast Limited TIMETECHNO | ₹206.82 | ₹161.42 | -22% |
| EPL Limited 500135 | ₹222.25 | ₹111.65 | -50% |
| Ton Yi Industrial Corp 9907 | 15.15 TWD | 23.17 TWD | +53% |
| Dongwon Systems Corporation 014820 | 19,330 KRW | 31,473 KRW | +63% |
Compare Metsä Board Oyj with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Consumer Cyclical stocks →
Frequently asked questions
Is Metsä Board Oyj (METSA) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of METSA?
What is the quality score of METSA?
What is the revenue of Metsä Board Oyj (METSA)?
What is the net profit margin of METSA?
How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
Track Metsä Board Oyj and try Pro for 14 days
One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.
Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.