MGE Energy, Inc (MGEE) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · US · Market cap $3.1B
MGE Energy, Inc
MGEE · US
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated 29 days ago
Share price −0.8% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 38% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($67.00). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($36.08 to $67.00) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $57.18 – $104.17 · fair‑value band $36.08 – $67.00 · the $81.54 price screens above the $50.88 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
MGE Energy, Inc (MGEE) currently trades at $81.54, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $50.88, implying the stock looks roughly 37.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, MGE Energy, Inc generated revenue of $750M at a net margin of 19.0%. Revenue grew 10.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.0%. Net debt stands at $929M. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $36.08 (bear case) to $67.00 (bull case); at $81.54, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -27% fair-value upside, at -38%, MGEE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($51.54) versus Earnings-Based ($20.99). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 56
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
MGE Energy, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a public utility holding company in the United States. It operates through Regulated Electric Utility Operations; Regulated Gas Utility Operations; Nonregulated Energy Operations; Transmission Investments; and All Other segments.
Full company description
MGE Energy, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a public utility holding company in the United States. It operates through Regulated Electric Utility Operations; Regulated Gas Utility Operations; Nonregulated Energy Operations; Transmission Investments; and All Other segments. The company generates, purchases, and distributes electricity; purchases and distributes natural gas; owns and leases electric generating capacity; and plans, constructs, operates, maintains, and expands transmission facilities to provide transmission power services. It also generates electricity from coal-fired, gas-fired, and renewable energy sources and provides solar and wind generation, and battery storage services. As of December 31, 2025, the company owned and operated 811 miles of overhead electric distribution lines; 1,386 miles of underground electric distribution cables; 47 substations with an installed capacity of 1.2 million kVA; and gas facilities, including 3,117 miles of distribution mains, as well as supplied electric service to approximately 170,000 customers. MGE Energy, Inc. was incorporated in 2001 and is headquartered in Madison, Wisconsin.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
MGE Energy, Inc reported revenue of $744M in FY2025 versus $607M in FY2021, a compound +5.2%/yr. Reported net income was $136M in FY2025, compounding +6.5%/yr from FY2021.
MGEE screens 38% overvalued. Compare with NextEra Energy, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Sector Update: Energy Stocks Decline Wednesday Afternoon
- MGE (MGEE) Q2 Earnings Top Estimates
- MGE Energy Reports Second-Quarter 2026 Earnings
- NRG Energy (NRG) Misses Q2 Earnings Estimates
Peer Group
Utilities - Regulated Electric · 154 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Electric median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 66/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Regulated Electric stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| NextEra Energy, Inc NEE | $88.80 | $32.94 | -63% |
| The Southern Company SO | $95.61 | $61.06 | -36% |
| Duke Energy Corporation DUK | $126.11 | $97.11 | -23% |
| National Grid plc NGG | 61,175 ARS | 44,377 ARS | -27% |
| American Electric Power Company AEP | $132.50 | $79.33 | -40% |
| Dominion Energy, Inc D | $70.08 | $46.92 | -33% |
| NTPC Limited NTPC | ₹341.85 | ₹377.16 | +10% |
| CEZ, a. s. CEZ | 232.40 PLN | 159.33 PLN | -31% |
| Power Grid Corporation POWERGRID | ₹283.55 | ₹252.77 | -11% |
| China National Nuclear Power Co 601985 | ¥8.91 | ¥7.69 | -14% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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