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MGE Energy Inc (MGEE) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of MGE Energy Inc $34.40, price $70.86, upside -51.5%, quality 55 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Utilities · US · ISIN US55277P1049

ME MGE Energy Inc logo Broad data Sep 23, 2026

MGE Energy Inc

MGEE · US

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value $34.40 · Strongly overvalued (−51%)
!Quality 55/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +6.7 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 19.0% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
·2.65% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (7/14)
!Moderate moat 63/100
✓Insider activity 66/100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$104.17 $57.18 Fair Value $34.40 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $57.18 – $104.17 · fair‑value band $30.78 – $53.67 · the $70.86 price screens above the $34.40 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

MGE Energy, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a public utility holding company in the United States. It operates through Regulated Electric Utility Operations; Regulated Gas Utility Operations; Nonregulated Energy Operations; Transmission Investments; and All Other segments.

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MGE Energy, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a public utility holding company in the United States. It operates through Regulated Electric Utility Operations; Regulated Gas Utility Operations; Nonregulated Energy Operations; Transmission Investments; and All Other segments. The company generates, purchases, and distributes electricity; purchases and distributes natural gas; owns and leases electric generating capacity; and plans, constructs, operates, maintains, and expands transmission facilities to provide transmission power services. It also generates electricity from coal-fired, gas-fired, and renewable energy sources and provides solar and wind generation, and battery storage services. As of December 31, 2025, the company owned and operated 811 miles of overhead electric distribution lines; 1,386 miles of underground electric distribution cables; 47 substations with an installed capacity of 1.2 million kVA; and gas facilities, including 3,117 miles of distribution mains, as well as supplied electric service to approximately 170,000 customers. MGE Energy, Inc. was incorporated in 2001 and is headquartered in Madison, Wisconsin.

Stock analysis

MGE Energy Inc (MGEE) currently trades at $70.86, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $34.40, implying the stock looks roughly 106.0% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $51.54 per share, and 0 of the 15 models we run sit above the $70.86 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $20.99, and 15 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $30.78 (bear) to $53.67 (bull), the price of $70.86 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

MGE Energy Inc reported revenue of $744M in FY2025 versus $607M in FY2021, a compound +5.2%/yr. Reported net income was $136M in FY2025, compounding +6.5%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $3.1B · P/E ratio 18.2 · P/S ratio 3.32 · EPS (TTM) $3.90 · Dividend yield 2.6% · Net margin 18.3% · Return on equity 11.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.3%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at −51%, MGEE screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $30.78 Fair Value $34.40 Bull $53.67
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.48 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income $30.34 $33.72 $49.51 76
EPV $15.29 $20.99 $25.90 73
ROIC Compounder $15.29 $20.99 $25.90 72
All 15 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $24.48 $51.81 $65.68 66
PEG = 1.0 $7.84 $11.20 $14.55 57
EPV $15.29 $20.99 $25.90 73
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $15.73 $23.40 $31.27 69
DDM Multi-Stage $15.73 $22.15 $29.18 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $48.60 $64.80 $81.00 63
P/S Multiple $36.94 $49.25 $61.57 58
P/B Multiple $45.90 $61.20 $76.50 55
EV/EBIT $30.05 $47.00 $63.96 65
EV/EBITDA $35.81 $54.69 $73.56 66
EV/Revenue $13.67 $28.44 $43.22 51
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $17.27 $23.14 $34.54 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $30.34 $33.72 $49.51 76
ROIC Compounder $15.29 $20.99 $25.90 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $36.08 $51.54 $67.00 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 55/100

Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 42

Profitability 42
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 61
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 49
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 38
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 43
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 86
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 32
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 9
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 75
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.8% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.0%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+10.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.7% vs 6%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.20% → 23%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

MGEE screens 106% overvalued. Compare with NextEra Energy, Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Electric · 157 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 55 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −52% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 11% · Above median
Return on assets 4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 19% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 24% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 11% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.6% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.61× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Electric median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 18.2× · Pricier than median
P/B 2.37× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 4.11× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 13.4× · Priciest 25%
PEG 4.12× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 9
FUTURE (revenue growth)54 · sector 32
PAST (return on equity)44 · sector 39
HEALTH (low debt)70 · sector 52
DIVIDEND (yield)53 · sector 69

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Utilities - Regulated Electric stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
NextEra Energy, Inc NEE $79.26 $29.88 −62%
The Southern Company SO $85.15 $58.74 −31%
Duke Energy Corporation DUK $116.31 $74.89 −36%
American Electric Power Company AEP $120.27 $100.09 −17%
Dominion Energy, Inc D $62.43 $37.67 −40%
Entergy Corporation ETR $101.16 $38.37 −62%
Xcel Energy Inc XEL $72.06 $54.92 −24%
Exelon Corporation EXC $41.80 $36.26 −13%
Consolidated Edison, Inc ED $103.84 $47.92 −54%
Public Service Enterprise Group PEG $69.12 $33.43 −52%

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MGE Energy Inc · Fair Value
$34.40 −106%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "MGE Energy Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MGEE

Frequently asked questions

Is MGE Energy Inc (MGEE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $34.40 versus a price of $70.86, about −51% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MGEE?
Our model-based fair value for MGE Energy Inc is $34.40 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $70.86.
What is the quality score of MGEE?
MGE Energy Inc has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for MGE Energy Inc (MGEE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $34.40 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario $30.78, optimistic scenario $53.67. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the MGE Energy Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $34.40, about −51% upside versus a price of $70.86 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $30.78, optimistic scenario $53.67. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of MGE Energy Inc (MGEE)?
MGE Energy Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $750M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does MGE Energy Inc pay a dividend?
MGE Energy Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.65% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of MGE Energy Inc (MGEE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For MGE Energy Inc it is $34.40 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $70.86. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is MGE Energy Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, MGEE trades above its calculated fair value: price $70.86, fair value $34.40, a gap of about −51% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MGEE?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($70.86); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($34.40). For MGE Energy Inc the two are $36.46 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is MGE Energy Inc worth?
The market values MGE Energy Inc at about $3.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $70.86; our models calculate a fair value of $34.40 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MGEE?
Our models span a range for MGE Energy Inc: cautious scenario $30.78, base $34.40, optimistic $53.67 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $70.86). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MGEE?
MGE Energy Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.2 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $34.40 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 4.1, P/B 2.4, P/S 4.1, EV/EBITDA 13.4.
What is the PEG ratio of MGEE?
The PEG ratio of MGE Energy Inc is 4.12 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of MGE Energy Inc (MGEE)?
Balance-sheet figures for MGE Energy Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 11.0%, debt of 0.61 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MGEE from its 52-week high?
MGE Energy Inc trades at $70.86, about 17% below its 52-week high of $85.51 and at the low of $70.86 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $34.40 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to MGE Energy Inc?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value NextEra Energy, Inc, The Southern Company, Duke Energy Corporation, American Electric Power Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is MGE Energy Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $70.86, calculated fair value $34.40 (−51%), Quality Score 55/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MGEE calculated?
We run MGE Energy Inc through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $34.40, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. MGE Energy Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of MGE Energy Inc (MGEE)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $70.86. Our model-based fair value is $34.40, about −51% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with MGE Energy Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($53.67). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of MGE Energy Inc (MGEE) come from?
Earnings per share at MGE Energy Inc grew +5.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.7 %, EBIT margin −0.3 %, tax rate +3.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of MGE Energy Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of MGE Energy Inc (MGEE)?
The market capitalisation of MGE Energy Inc is $3.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of MGE Energy Inc (MGEE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of MGE Energy Inc is 3.32 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of MGE Energy Inc (MGEE)?
Earnings per share at MGE Energy Inc are $3.90 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of MGE Energy Inc (MGEE)?
The dividend yield of MGE Energy Inc is 2.6% (payout 48.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of MGE Energy Inc (MGEE)?
The net margin of MGE Energy Inc is 18.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of MGE Energy Inc (MGEE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of MGE Energy Inc is 11.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of MGE Energy Inc (MGEE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of MGE Energy Inc is 5.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of MGE Energy Inc (MGEE)?
The operating margin of MGE Energy Inc is 23.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at MGE Energy Inc (MGEE)?
Revenue at MGE Energy Inc is growing +10.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at MGE Energy Inc (MGEE)?
Earnings per share at MGE Energy Inc are growing +15.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does MGE Energy Inc (MGEE) generate?
The free cash flow of MGE Energy Inc is −$80.0M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does MGE Energy Inc (MGEE) carry?
The net debt of MGE Energy Inc is $929M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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