MGE Energy Inc (MGEE) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of MGE Energy Inc stock $34.48, price $80.26, that is 57.0% below the price, quality 51 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 15 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $56.80 – $103.48 · fair‑value band $30.98 – $43.00 · the $80.26 price screens above the $34.48 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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MGE Energy, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a public utility holding company in the United States. It operates through Regulated Electric Utility Operations; Regulated Gas Utility Operations; Nonregulated Energy Operations; Transmission Investments; and All Other segments.
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The company generates, purchases, and distributes electricity; purchases and distributes natural gas; owns and leases electric generating capacity; and plans, constructs, operates, maintains, and expands transmission facilities to provide transmission power services.
It also generates electricity from coal-fired, gas-fired, and renewable energy sources and provides solar and wind generation, and battery storage services.
As of December 31, 2025, the company owned and operated 811 miles of overhead electric distribution lines; 1,386 miles of underground electric distribution cables; 47 substations with an installed capacity of 1.2 million kVA; and gas facilities, including 3,117 miles of distribution mains, as well as supplied electric service to approximately 170,000 customers.
MGE Energy, Inc. was incorporated in 2001 and is headquartered in Madison, Wisconsin.
Stock analysis
MGE Energy Inc (MGEE) currently trades at $80.26, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $34.48, 57% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $51.49 per share, and 0 of the 15 models we run sit above the $80.26 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $22.95, and 15 of the 15 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $30.98 (bear) to $43.00 (bull), the price of $80.26 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
MGE Energy Inc reported revenue of $744M in FY2025 versus $607M in FY2021, a compound +5.2%/yr. Reported net income was $136M in FY2025, compounding +6.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $3.0B Mid · P/E ratio 18.8 · P/S ratio 4.00 · EPS (TTM) $4.27 · Dividend yield 2.4% · Net margin 19.9% · Return on equity 11.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.3% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 63 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −57%, MGEE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$30.98Fair Value $34.48Bull$43.00
Price $80.26 · Downside -57.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.03 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $42,500, on Sep 9, 2026.
BuyJames G BerbeeDirector4× since Dec 5, 2025: 1,179 shares, avg. $78.63$92,719Sep 9, 2026
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.8% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+9.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.7.4% vs 5.5%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.20% → 23%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (89 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Regulated status supplies a limited moat through allowed returns on grid investments, yet negative free cash flow and elevated debt constrain financial flexibility.
Main risk: Elevated debt together with negative free cash flow risks higher interest costs without matching rate relief, directly pressuring earnings in the regulated utility model.
MGE Energy just amended its revolving credit agreements to extend maturities to 2031 with two possible one-year extensions and raised one facility's commitment from 90 to 210 million dollars. A regulated electric and gas utility needs steady access to capital for grid and generation projects that earn allowed returns, yet the new 65 percent debt-to-capitalization limit keeps leverage in view. Does the added flexibility mainly support earnings-accretive investments or mainly raise the risk of higher interest costs without matching rate relief?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Electric · 156 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score51 · Above median
Fair Value upside−57.0% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)11.0% · Above median
Return on assets4.3% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)19.9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)22.7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)1.1% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.4% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.61× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Electric median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)18.8× · Pricier than median
P/B2.31× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)4.00× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA13.2× · Priciest 25%
PEG4.12× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 13
FUTURE (revenue growth)6· sector 24
PAST (return on equity)44· sector 39
HEALTH (low debt)70· sector 52
DIVIDEND (yield)47· sector 63
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "MGE Energy Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MGEE
Frequently asked questions
Is MGE Energy Inc (MGEE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $34.48 versus a price of $80.26, about 57% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MGEE?
Our model-based fair value for MGE Energy Inc is $34.48 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $80.26.
What is the quality score of MGEE?
MGE Energy Inc has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for MGE Energy Inc (MGEE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $34.48 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario $30.98, optimistic scenario $43.00. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the MGE Energy Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $34.48, about 57% lower versus a price of $80.26 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $30.98, optimistic scenario $43.00. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of MGE Energy Inc (MGEE)?
MGE Energy Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $752M (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does MGE Energy Inc pay a dividend?
MGE Energy Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 2.37% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of MGE Energy Inc (MGEE) and when is the ex-dividend date?
MGE Energy Inc pays a dividend of $1.90 per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.4%. The next ex-dividend date is Dec 1, 2026, with payment on Dec 15, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 1987. The payout ratio is 44.5% of earnings. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What is the intrinsic value of MGE Energy Inc (MGEE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For MGE Energy Inc it is $34.48 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $80.26. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models in 6 families (Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is MGE Energy Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, MGEE trades above its calculated fair value: price $80.26, fair value $34.48, a gap of about −57% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MGEE?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($80.26); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($34.48). For MGE Energy Inc the two are $45.78 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is MGE Energy Inc worth?
The market values MGE Energy Inc at about $3.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $80.26; our models calculate a fair value of $34.48 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MGEE?
Our models span a range for MGE Energy Inc: cautious scenario $30.98, base $34.48, optimistic $43.00 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $80.26). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MGEE?
MGE Energy Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.8 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $34.48 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 25.4. Other multiples: PEG 4.1, P/B 2.3, P/S 4.0, EV/EBITDA 13.2.
What is the PEG ratio of MGEE?
The PEG ratio of MGE Energy Inc is 4.12 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of MGE Energy Inc (MGEE)?
Balance-sheet figures for MGE Energy Inc (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 11.0%, debt of 0.61 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MGEE from its 52-week high?
MGE Energy Inc trades at $80.26, about 4% below its 52-week high of $83.68 and 17% above the low of $68.49 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $34.48 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to MGE Energy Inc?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value NextEra Energy, Inc, The Southern Company, Duke Energy Corporation, American Electric Power Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is MGE Energy Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $80.26, calculated fair value $34.48 (−57%), Quality Score 51/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MGEE calculated?
We run MGE Energy Inc through 15 models from 6 families: Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $34.48 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. MGE Energy Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of MGE Energy Inc (MGEE)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $80.26. Our model-based fair value is $34.48, about 57% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with MGE Energy Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($43.00). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of MGE Energy Inc (MGEE) come from?
Earnings per share at MGE Energy Inc grew +5.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.7 %, EBIT margin −0.3 %, tax rate +3.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of MGE Energy Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of MGE Energy Inc (MGEE)?
The market capitalisation of MGE Energy Inc is $3.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of MGE Energy Inc (MGEE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of MGE Energy Inc is 4.00 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of MGE Energy Inc (MGEE)?
Earnings per share at MGE Energy Inc are $4.27 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of MGE Energy Inc (MGEE)?
The dividend yield of MGE Energy Inc is 2.4% (payout 44.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of MGE Energy Inc (MGEE)?
The net margin of MGE Energy Inc is 19.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of MGE Energy Inc (MGEE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of MGE Energy Inc is 11.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of MGE Energy Inc (MGEE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of MGE Energy Inc is 5.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of MGE Energy Inc (MGEE)?
The operating margin of MGE Energy Inc is 22.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at MGE Energy Inc (MGEE)?
Revenue at MGE Energy Inc is growing +1.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at MGE Energy Inc (MGEE)?
Earnings per share at MGE Energy Inc are growing +23.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does MGE Energy Inc (MGEE) generate?
The free cash flow of MGE Energy Inc is −$80.0M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does MGE Energy Inc (MGEE) carry?
The net debt of MGE Energy Inc is $929M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 8, 2026