Check 35,000+ stocks against 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors

MOL PLC (MGYOY) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of MOL PLC $7.39, price $8.34, upside -11.4%, quality 45 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

Fair value above price? No
Good quality? No
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Energy · US · ADR · ISIN US6084642023

Some data Sep 24, 2026

MOL PLC

MGYOY · US

Weak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.

!Fair value $7.39 · Overvalued (−11%)

!Quality 45/100

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +16.7 %/yr)

!Thin margins · 2.2% net margin (TTM)

✓Low debt · generates free cash flow

!Trails peers (5/13)

!Narrow moat 32/100

!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain

!Weak on valuation: 18 out of 100

!Weak on past: 19 out of 100

26 models, one by oneBear $5.54 to bull $9.23 Growth analysisrevenue history, year by year Quality 45/100 in detail37 factors, each one shown Compared with its peersrank on every measure, side by side

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $1.41 – $8.91 · fair‑value band $5.54 – $9.23 · the $8.34 price screens above the $7.39 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

MOL Magyar Olaj- és Gázipari Nyilvánosan Muködo Részvénytársaság, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated oil and gas company in Hungary and internationally. The company offers MOL EVO fuel products; operates convenience store under the Fresh Corner brand; and provides e-charging solutions. It also provides lubricants and autochemicals; gasoline, diesel, heating oil, and bunker diesel; JET A-1 aviation fuel; liquefied petroleum gas, including butanes, propane-butane mix, autogas, propane; petrochemicals; black products, such as bitumen, HFO, petrolcoke, and liquid sulphur, as well as other crude processing/petchem residues, including fcc residue, c9+, and pyrooil; and base oil, waxes, and finished lubricants. In addition, the company is involved in the provision of retail services, which operates service stations under the MOL, Slovnaft, INA, Tifon, and Energopetrol brands; mobility solutions comprising e-mobility, car sharing, bike sharing, fleet management services; oilfield chemicals and technologies business; and oilfield services, such as drilling, workover, pressure pumping, cementing and stimulation, coiled tubing and nitrogen, tubular handling, well test, slickline, wireline mud logging, and seismic data processing service lines. Further, it engages in the provision of digital factory services, including data science, master data management, loyalty, customer relationship management, campaign management, API integration, omnichannel and payment; and natural gas transmission business. Additionally, the company produces, supplies, and treats water; fire and ambulance services; investment management; engineering activity and consultancy; hydrocarbon exploration; trading of oil products; financial services; exploration financing; private security; accounting; bookkeeping and auditing; tax consultancy; and computer facilities management activities. The company was incorporated in 1991 and is headquartered in Budapest, Hungary.

Stock analysis

MOL PLC ADR (MGYOY) currently trades at $8.34, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.39, implying the stock looks roughly 12.9% overvalued today.

Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $11.02 per share, and 15 of the 24 models we run sit above the $8.34 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $2.88, and 9 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $5.54 (bear) to $9.23 (bull), the price of $8.34 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

MOL PLC ADR reported revenue of 8.7T HUF in FY2025 versus 6.0T HUF in FY2021, a compound +9.9%/yr. Reported net income was 277B HUF in FY2025, compounding −14.9%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $13.7B · P/E ratio 19.4 · P/S ratio 0.62 · EPS (TTM) $0.4300 · Net margin 3.2% · Return on equity 4.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.2% · Revenue (TTM) 8.9T HUF.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 112% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −61% fair-value upside, at −11%, MGYOY screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $5.54 Fair Value $7.39 Bull $9.23

Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.3145 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.

Highest evidence

FCF DCF $8.84 $13.21 $19.45 80

Growth DCF $9.01 $12.91 $18.18 79

Owner Earnings $7.97 $11.91 $17.54 76

All 24 models by family

DCF Models

FCF DCF $8.84 $13.21 $19.45 80

Owner Earnings $7.97 $11.91 $17.54 76

5Y Revenue Exit $7.19 $10.93 $15.60 72

5Y EBITDA Exit $7.77 $12.01 $16.82 75

5Y P/E Exit $6.14 $9.01 $11.91 71

10Y Revenue Exit $7.54 $11.02 $15.46 67

10Y EBITDA Exit $8.09 $11.74 $16.37 68

10Y P/E Exit $7.08 $9.72 $12.76 65

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd $3.48 $9.88 $13.01 65

Lynch FV $2.01 $2.88 $3.74 61

PEG = 1.0 $2.01 $2.88 $3.74 57

EPV $4.35 $5.07 $5.69 74

Multiples

P/E Multiple $5.37 $7.16 $8.95 63

P/S Multiple $6.52 $8.69 $10.86 58

P/B Multiple $6.52 $8.69 $10.86 55

EV/EBIT $5.40 $7.26 $9.11 66

EV/EBITDA $8.12 $10.88 $13.65 67

EV/Revenue $6.59 $9.49 $12.38 53

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) $3.84 $5.14 $7.68 54

Growth DCF

Growth DCF $9.01 $12.91 $18.18 79

Rev-Margin DCF $7.19 $11.01 $15.33 73

Economic Profit

Residual Income $6.07 $6.30 $6.50 71

ROIC Compounder $4.35 $5.07 $5.69 72

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E $4.51 $6.44 $8.37 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 45/100

Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 90

Profitability 40

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 35

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 48

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 52

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 83

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 78

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 96

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 94

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 24

Share count: buybacks or dilution?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100

Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Revenue growth 1 year

−5.3%

Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

−4.1%

Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+16.7%

Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.8% a year

Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+6.5%

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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in HUF ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in HUF: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.

−8.3%

Earnings growth per share plus dividend.

Earnings per share, growth per year−8.3%

Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%

Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−8% vs 6%, slowing

Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−1% → 5%

Start year 2020 (pandemic)

Growth Forecast

Price in line with expectations

The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.

What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).

−3.1%

Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.

What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.

−2.2%

Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.

After inflation (figures in HUF, Hungary: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 5.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −6.1% a year for the price and −5.3% for the forecasts.

Forecast 2026 (sales)+0.7%

Forecast 2027 (sales)−4.0%

Projected 2028 (sales)−3.3%

Projected 2029 (sales)−2.5%

Projected 2030 (sales)−1.8%

MGYOY screens 13% overvalued. Compare with Reliance Industries Limited →

Compare MOL PLC ADR with another stock

Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · 108 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures

Overall it trails its industry peers.

Valuation

Quality Score 45 · Bottom 25%

Fair Value upside −10% · Above median

Profitability

Return on equity (TTM) 5% · Below median

Return on assets 3% · Below median

Net margin (TTM) 2% · Below median

Operating margin (TTM) 0% · Bottom 25%

Growth and dividend

Revenue growth −7% · Bottom 25%

Balance sheet

Debt / equity 0.11× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 19.4× · Pricier than median

P/B 1.01× · Cheaper than median

P/S (TTM) 0.47× · Pricier than median

P/FCF 0.0× · Cheapest 25%

EV/EBITDA 4.6× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE (fair-value potential)18 · sector 15

FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 14

PAST (return on equity)19 · sector 34

HEALTH (low debt)95 · sector 81

DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 51

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

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Phillips 66 PSX	$256.78	$87.35	−66%
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MOL PLC ADR · Fair Value
$7.39 −13%Fair Value
Calculator →

<a href="https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MGYOY" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener" style="display:inline-flex;align-items:center;gap:12px;box-sizing:border-box;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,Segoe UI,Roboto,sans-serif;text-decoration:none;background:#0f1814;color:#eaf2ed;border:1px solid #2a3a30;border-radius:12px;padding:12px 16px;max-width:360px"><span style="line-height:1.35"><span style="font-size:12px;color:#9fb0a8">MOL PLC ADR · Fair Value</span><br><b style="font-size:20px">$7.39</b> <span style="color:#e0816f;font-weight:700;font-size:14px">−13%</span></span><span style="font-size:11px;color:var(--fvc-g-mitte);font-weight:700;margin-left:auto;text-align:right;line-height:1.3">Fair&nbsp;Value<br>Calculator&nbsp;→</span></a>

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "MOL PLC ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MGYOY

Frequently asked questions

Is MOL PLC (MGYOY) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $7.39 versus a price of $8.34, about −11% upside (overvalued).

What is the fair value of MGYOY?

Our model-based fair value for MOL PLC ADR is $7.39 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $8.34.

What is the quality score of MGYOY?

MOL PLC ADR has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for MOL PLC (MGYOY)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of $7.39 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.54, optimistic scenario $9.23. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the MOL PLC ADR stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at $7.39, about −11% upside versus a price of $8.34 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $5.54, optimistic scenario $9.23. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of MOL PLC (MGYOY)?

MOL PLC ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 8.9T HUF (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).

What growth is priced into MOL PLC (MGYOY)?

For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, MOL PLC ADR would have to grow free cash flow by -3.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +16.7 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.

What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MGYOY use?

Our models discount MOL PLC ADR at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.11, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.

What is a reverse DCF?

A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For MOL PLC ADR that is -3.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.

How much growth has MOL PLC (MGYOY) delivered so far?

Over the past 5 years revenue at MOL PLC ADR grew +16.7 % a year. The price currently implies -3.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.

How fast is the sector of MOL PLC (MGYOY) growing?

The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into MOL PLC ADR (-3.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.

What is the free cash flow yield of MOL PLC (MGYOY)?

The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.05 %: that much free cash flow MOL PLC ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.

What is the intrinsic value of MOL PLC (MGYOY)?

Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For MOL PLC ADR it is $7.39 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $8.34. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).

Is MOL PLC ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?

As of Sep 24, 2026, MGYOY trades above its calculated fair value: price $8.34, fair value $7.39, a gap of about −11% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.

Is fair value the same as the market price of MGYOY?

No. The price is what the market pays today ($8.34); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($7.39). For MOL PLC ADR the two are $0.9530 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.

How much is MOL PLC ADR worth?

The market values MOL PLC ADR at about $13.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $8.34; our models calculate a fair value of $7.39 per share.

What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MGYOY?

Our models span a range for MOL PLC ADR: cautious scenario $5.54, base $7.39, optimistic $9.23 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $8.34). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.

What is the P/E ratio of MGYOY?

MOL PLC ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.4 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $7.39 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.0, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 4.6.

How solid is the balance sheet of MOL PLC (MGYOY)?

Balance-sheet figures for MOL PLC ADR (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 4.7%, debt of 0.11 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.

How far is MGYOY from its 52-week high?

MOL PLC ADR trades at $8.34, about 6% below its 52-week high of $8.91 and 112% above the low of $3.94 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $7.39 is for.

Which stocks are comparable to MOL PLC ADR?

From the same area (Energy) we also value Reliance Industries Limited, Valero Energy Corporation, Marathon Petroleum Corporation, Phillips 66, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.

Is MOL PLC ADR stock attractive at the current price?

The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $8.34, calculated fair value $7.39 (−11%), Quality Score 45/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.

How is the fair value of MGYOY calculated?

We run MOL PLC ADR through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $7.39, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.

Is it still worth investing in stocks now?

The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. MOL PLC ADR itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.

What is the share price of MOL PLC (MGYOY)?

The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $8.34. Our model-based fair value is $7.39, about −11% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.

What should I pay attention to with MOL PLC ADR right now?

The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.

Where does the earnings growth of MOL PLC (MGYOY) come from?

Earnings per share at MOL PLC ADR grew +11.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.1 %, EBIT margin +4.8 %, tax rate −2.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of MOL PLC ADR

How large is the market capitalisation of MOL PLC (MGYOY)?

The market capitalisation of MOL PLC ADR is $13.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.

What is the P/S ratio of MOL PLC (MGYOY)?

The price-to-sales ratio of MOL PLC ADR is 0.62 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.

What are the earnings per share of MOL PLC (MGYOY)?

Earnings per share at MOL PLC ADR are $0.4300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 19.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.

What is the net margin of MOL PLC (MGYOY)?

The net margin of MOL PLC ADR is 3.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.

What is the return on equity of MOL PLC (MGYOY)?

The return on equity (ROE) of MOL PLC ADR is 4.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.

What is the EBIT return on assets of MOL PLC (MGYOY)?

On an EBIT basis the return on assets of MOL PLC ADR is 9.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.

How fast is revenue growing at MOL PLC (MGYOY)?

Revenue at MOL PLC ADR is growing −7.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.

How fast are earnings growing at MOL PLC (MGYOY)?

Earnings per share at MOL PLC ADR are growing −18.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.

How much net debt does MOL PLC (MGYOY) carry?

The net debt of MOL PLC ADR is 676B HUF (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.

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