MNR Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · US · Market cap $2.1B
MNR
MNR · US
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Share price +0.4% over the past month.
Below-average quality, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- A fairly wide model range ($9.85 to $21.40) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (3 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
33‑month range $9.93 – $15.20 · fair‑value band $9.85 – $21.40 · the $12.96 price screens below the $13.49 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
MNR (MNR) currently trades at $12.96, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $13.49, implying the stock looks roughly 4.1% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, MNR generated revenue of $1.2B at a net margin of 8.0%. Revenue grew 43.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.7%. Net debt stands at $1.1B. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $9.85 (bear case) to $21.40 (bull case); at $12.96, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 35% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -26% fair-value upside, at 4%, MNR screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($46.10) versus Economic Profit ($3.98). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 39 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 59
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Mach Natural Resources LP, an independent upstream oil and gas company, focuses on the acquisition, development, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGL) reserves. The company owns a portfolio of midstream assets, as well as owns gathering systems, processing plants. and water infrastructure.
Full company description
Mach Natural Resources LP, an independent upstream oil and gas company, focuses on the acquisition, development, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGL) reserves. The company owns a portfolio of midstream assets, as well as owns gathering systems, processing plants. and water infrastructure. It also operates proved developed producing (PDP) wells. The company has operations in Anadarko Basin region of Western Oklahoma, Southern Kansas and the panhandle of Texas; the San Juan Basin region of New Mexico and Colorado; and the Permian Basin region of West Texas. The company was incorporated in 2023 and is headquartered in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
MNR reported revenue of $1.2B in FY2025 versus $392M in FY2021, a compound +31.5%/yr. Reported net income was $286M in FY2025, compounding +19.9%/yr from FY2021.
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Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Falling Oil Prices Prompt Raymond James to Lower Mach Natural Resources (MNR) Target
- A Look At Mach Natural Resources (MNR) Valuation As Market Pricing Diverges From Narrative Fair Value Estimate
Peer Group
Oil & Gas E&P · 315 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 86/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CNOOC Limited 600938 | ¥28.97 | ¥32.55 | +12% |
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $109.04 | $91.79 | -16% |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ | $42.86 | $31.54 | -26% |
| EOG Resources, Inc EOG | $139.89 | $130.19 | -7% |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY | $54.86 | $30.68 | -44% |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG | $183.39 | $106.12 | -42% |
| Devon Energy Corporation DVN | $43.83 | $27.06 | -38% |
| Woodside Energy Group WDS | A$30.46 | A$20.71 | -32% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $48.85 | $42.85 | -12% |
| Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL | $415.70 | $79.20 | -81% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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