MINISO Group (MNSO) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $3.7B
MINISO Group
MNSO · US
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 17, 2026, revised from $13.68 to $13.72 (+0.3%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +6.3% over the past month.
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- A fairly wide model range ($7.28 to $17.84) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.06 – $27.14 · fair‑value band $7.28 – $17.84 · the $12.55 price screens below the $13.72 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
MINISO Group (MNSO) currently trades at $12.55, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $13.72, implying the stock looks roughly 9.3% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, MINISO Group generated revenue of $22.7B at a net margin of 9.0%. Revenue grew 28.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 18.8%. Net debt stands at $4.3B. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $7.28 (bear case) to $17.84 (bull case); at $12.55, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 51% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -24% fair-value upside, at 9%, MNSO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($143.67) versus Asset-Based ($23.50). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 27
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
MINISO Group Holding Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the retail and wholesale of design-led lifestyle and pop toy products in Mainland China, the rest of Asia, North and Latin America, Europe, and internationally.
Full company description
MINISO Group Holding Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the retail and wholesale of design-led lifestyle and pop toy products in Mainland China, the rest of Asia, North and Latin America, Europe, and internationally. The company offers products in various categories, including home decor products, small electronics, textiles, accessories, beauty tools, toys, cosmetics, personal care products, snacks, fragrances and perfumes, and stationeries and gifts under the MINISO brand; and blind boxes, toy bricks, model figures, model kits, collectible dolls, Ichiban Kuji, and other popular toys under the TOP TOY brand. It also engages in brand licensing activity; and online sale of lifestyle products. MINISO Group Holding Limited was founded in 2013 and is based in Guangzhou, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
MINISO Group reported revenue of $20.9B in FY2025 versus $9.1B in FY2021, a compound +23.1%/yr. Reported net income was $1.2B in FY2025.
Watch MNSO: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- MINISO (MNSO) Stock May Sit Below Fair Value As Shares Fell 34%
- MINISO Group Holding Limited Unsponsored ADR (MNSO) Stock Sinks As Market Gains: Here's Why
- Is It Worth Investing in MINISO Group Holding Limited (MNSO) Based on Wall Street's Bullish Views?
- MINISO Group Holding Limited Unsponsored ADR (MNSO) Stock Declines While Market Improves: Some Information for Investors
Peer Group
Specialty Retail · 221 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Casey's General Stores, Inc CASY | $827.04 | $405.44 | -51% |
| Williams-Sonoma, Inc WSM | $222.84 | $164.16 | -26% |
| Ulta Beauty, Inc ULTA | $479.57 | $488.39 | +2% |
| DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc DKS | $208.89 | $181.10 | -13% |
| Best Buy Co BBY | $83.98 | $109.12 | +30% |
| China Tourism Group 601888 | ¥52.90 | ¥40.40 | -24% |
| Tractor Supply Company TSCO | $31.01 | $35.52 | +15% |
| Murphy USA Inc MUSA | $618.57 | $423.35 | -32% |
| Five Below, Inc FIVE | $197.71 | $117.29 | -41% |
| Taiwan Mobile Co 3045 | 110.50 TWD | 80.98 TWD | -27% |
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Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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