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Mongolia Energy Corp Ltd (MOAEY) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Mongolia Energy Corp Ltd $0.33, price $0.44, upside -26.3%, quality 40 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Basic Materials · US · ADR · ISIN US60936Y2072

ME Mongolia Energy Corp Ltd logo Thin data Sep 27, 2026

Mongolia Energy Corp Ltd

MOAEY · US

Weak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.

!Fair value $0.3272 · Overvalued (−26.3%)
!Quality 40/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +20.5 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -82.4% net margin (TTM)
✓Negative equity (buybacks among others) · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (3/8)
!Narrow moat 0/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!The models disagree: range $0.1928 to $0.5903
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$0.7970 $0.3090 Fair Value $0.3272 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.3090 – $0.7970 · fair‑value band $0.1928 – $0.5903 · the $0.4440 price screens above the $0.3272 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

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Company profile

Mongolia Energy Corporation Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the coal mining, exploration, processing, and other resources related operations in the People's Republic of China and Mongolia. It sells coking and thermal coal. The company's principal project is the Khushuut coking coal project in Western Mongolia.

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Mongolia Energy Corporation Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the coal mining, exploration, processing, and other resources related operations in the People's Republic of China and Mongolia. It sells coking and thermal coal. The company's principal project is the Khushuut coking coal project in Western Mongolia. It holds approximately 12,807 hectares of exploration and mining concession areas located in Khushuut, Gobi Altay, and Olon Bulag, Western Mongolia. It also offers management, secretarial and nominee, and coal transportation services, as well as mining and exploration advisory services. In addition, the company explores and mines minerals; trades in coal; and operates coal washing plants. Mongolia Energy Corporation Limited was incorporated in 1990 and is headquartered in Hong Kong.

Stock analysis

Mongolia Energy Corp Ltd ADR (MOAEY) currently trades at $0.4440, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.3272, implying the stock looks roughly 35.7% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $0.3272 per share, and 1 of the 12 models we run sit above the $0.4440 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $0.1629, and 11 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $0.1928 (bear) to $0.5903 (bull), the price of $0.4440 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Mongolia Energy Corp Ltd ADR reported revenue of HK$2.9B in FY2025 versus HK$858M in FY2021, a compound +35.1%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$1.4B in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $12.8M · P/E ratio 0.1 · EPS (TTM) $6.11 · Net margin −48.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 17.4% · Operating margin −5.2% · Revenue (TTM) HK$2.0B · Revenue growth (YoY) −48.8%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 44% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −51% fair-value upside, at −26%, MOAEY screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $0.1928 Fair Value $0.3272 Bull $0.5903
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($6.11 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EPV $0.1409 $0.1629 $0.1818 74
FCF DCF $0.2577 $0.3956 $0.8258 73
Growth DCF $0.2421 $0.4590 $0.8085 73
All 12 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $0.2577 $0.3956 $0.8258 73
5Y Revenue Exit $0.1284 $0.1959 $0.3350 68
5Y EBITDA Exit $0.1934 $0.3272 $0.5891 70
10Y Revenue Exit $0.1664 $0.3048 $0.3748 65
10Y EBITDA Exit $0.2156 $0.4414 $0.8236 63
Earnings-Based
EPV $0.1409 $0.1629 $0.1818 74
Multiples
EV/EBIT $0.2053 $0.2731 $0.3409 66
EV/EBITDA $0.1622 $0.2156 $0.2690 67
EV/Revenue $0.0694 $0.0983 $0.1272 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $0.2421 $0.4590 $0.8085 73
Rev-Margin DCF $0.1401 $0.2242 $0.4021 68
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder $0.1409 $0.1629 $0.1818 70

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 40/100

Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 84

Profitability 30
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 20
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 44
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 4
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 94
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 88
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 77
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 90
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 48/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−9.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +72.5% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.6%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
27.1% (2019) → 27.2% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

MOAEY screens 36% overvalued. Compare with Warrior Met Coal, Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Coking Coal · 27 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 40 · Below median
Fair Value upside −26.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets −17.1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −82.4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −5.2% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −48.8% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.

Valuation Multiplesvs Coking Coal median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 0.1× · Cheapest 25%
P/B Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/FCF 0.1× · Cheapest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Coal

Similar stocks

10 more Coking Coal stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Warrior Met Coal, Inc HCC $89.51 $14.38 −84%
PT Alamtri Minerals Indonesia Tbk, ADMR 1,525 IDR 1,221 IDR −20%
Shanxi Meijin Energy Co 000723 ¥3.52 ¥1.24 −65%
Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc AMR $174.43 $46.26 −73%
Shougang Fushan Resources Group 0639 HK$2.72 HK$3.81 +40%
Shanxi Coking Co 600740 ¥3.77 ¥1.83 −51%
Kailuan Energy Chemical Co 600997 ¥5.14 ¥3.06 −40%
Baotailong New Materials Co 601011 ¥2.91 ¥1.32 −55%
SunCoke Energy, Inc SXC $9.57 $2.86 −70%
Shandong Jinling Mining Co 000655 ¥7.10 ¥7.81 +10%

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Mongolia Energy Corp Ltd ADR · Fair Value
$0.3272 −36%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Mongolia Energy Corp Ltd ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MOAEY

Frequently asked questions

Is Mongolia Energy Corp Ltd (MOAEY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.3272 versus a price of $0.4440, about −26% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MOAEY?
Our model-based fair value for Mongolia Energy Corp Ltd ADR is $0.3272 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.4440.
What is the quality score of MOAEY?
Mongolia Energy Corp Ltd ADR has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mongolia Energy Corp Ltd (MOAEY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.3272 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.1928, optimistic scenario $0.5903. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mongolia Energy Corp Ltd ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.3272, about −26% upside versus a price of $0.4440 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.1928, optimistic scenario $0.5903. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mongolia Energy Corp Ltd (MOAEY)?
Mongolia Energy Corp Ltd ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$2.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Mongolia Energy Corp Ltd (MOAEY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mongolia Energy Corp Ltd ADR it is $0.3272 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of $0.4440. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Mongolia Energy Corp Ltd ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, MOAEY trades above its calculated fair value: price $0.4440, fair value $0.3272, a gap of about −26% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MOAEY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.4440); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.3272). For Mongolia Energy Corp Ltd ADR the two are $0.1168 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mongolia Energy Corp Ltd ADR worth?
The market values Mongolia Energy Corp Ltd ADR at about $12.8M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is $0.4440; our models calculate a fair value of $0.3272 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MOAEY?
Our models span a range for Mongolia Energy Corp Ltd ADR: cautious scenario $0.1928, base $0.3272, optimistic $0.5903 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price $0.4440). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MOAEY?
Mongolia Energy Corp Ltd ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 0.1 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $0.3272 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mongolia Energy Corp Ltd (MOAEY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mongolia Energy Corp Ltd ADR (as of Sep 27, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MOAEY from its 52-week high?
Mongolia Energy Corp Ltd ADR trades at $0.4440, about 1% below its 52-week high of $0.4470 and 44% above the low of $0.3090 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.3272 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mongolia Energy Corp Ltd ADR?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Warrior Met Coal, Inc, PT Alamtri Minerals Indonesia Tbk,, Shanxi Meijin Energy Co, Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mongolia Energy Corp Ltd ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price $0.4440, calculated fair value $0.3272 (−26%), Quality Score 40/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MOAEY calculated?
We run Mongolia Energy Corp Ltd ADR through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.3272, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Mongolia Energy Corp Ltd ADR itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mongolia Energy Corp Ltd (MOAEY)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was $0.4440. Our model-based fair value is $0.3272, about −26% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mongolia Energy Corp Ltd ADR right now?
Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide ($0.1928 to $0.5903). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of Mongolia Energy Corp Ltd ADR

How large is the market capitalisation of Mongolia Energy Corp Ltd (MOAEY)?
The market capitalisation of Mongolia Energy Corp Ltd ADR is $12.8M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Mongolia Energy Corp Ltd (MOAEY)?
Earnings per share at Mongolia Energy Corp Ltd ADR are $6.11 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 0.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Mongolia Energy Corp Ltd (MOAEY)?
The net margin of Mongolia Energy Corp Ltd ADR is −48.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mongolia Energy Corp Ltd (MOAEY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mongolia Energy Corp Ltd ADR is 17.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mongolia Energy Corp Ltd (MOAEY)?
The operating margin of Mongolia Energy Corp Ltd ADR is −5.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mongolia Energy Corp Ltd (MOAEY)?
Revenue at Mongolia Energy Corp Ltd ADR is growing −48.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +22.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Mongolia Energy Corp Ltd (MOAEY)?
Earnings per share at Mongolia Energy Corp Ltd ADR are growing +27.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Mongolia Energy Corp Ltd (MOAEY) generate?
The free cash flow of Mongolia Energy Corp Ltd ADR is HK$200M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Mongolia Energy Corp Ltd (MOAEY) carry?
The net debt of Mongolia Energy Corp Ltd ADR is HK$5.3B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 26.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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