Mongolian Mining Corporation (MOGLF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Mongolian Mining Corporation $0.44, price $1.23, upside -64.2%, quality 37 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value $0.4400 · Strongly overvalued (−64%)
!Quality 37/100
!Expensive Growth(revenue 5y +14.6 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 0.7% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers(5/13)
!Narrow moat24/100
!Insider activity25/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.2000 – $1.85 · fair‑value band $0.3200 – $0.5000 · the $1.23 price screens above the $0.4400 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Mongolian Mining Corporation engages in mining, processing, transporting, and selling coking coal products in China. The company owns and operates the Ukhaa Khudag and the Baruun Naran open-pit coking coal mines located in South Gobi province of Mongolia.
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Mongolian Mining Corporation engages in mining, processing, transporting, and selling coking coal products in China. The company owns and operates the Ukhaa Khudag and the Baruun Naran open-pit coking coal mines located in South Gobi province of Mongolia. It is also involved in airport operation and management, water exploration and supply management, and power supply project management activities; exploration and development of coal mine; and trading of coal and machinery equipment. The company was incorporated in 2010 and is based in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia.
Stock analysis
Mongolian Mining Corporation (MOGLF) currently trades at $1.23, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.4400, implying the stock looks roughly 179.6% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $0.8100 per share, and 3 of the 22 models we run sit above the $1.23 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $0.1000, and 19 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $0.3200 (bear) to $0.5000 (bull), the price of $1.23 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Mongolian Mining Corporation reported revenue of $823M in FY2025 versus $184M in FY2021, a compound +45.4%/yr. Reported net income was $6.1M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $1.3B · P/E ratio 123.0 · P/S ratio 0.91 · EPS (TTM) $0.0100 · Net margin 0.7% · Return on equity 0.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.6% · Operating margin 9.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 68% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −42% fair-value upside, at −64%, MOGLF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($0.1000 to $1.98). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear $0.3200Fair Value $0.4400Bull $0.5000
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0073 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−20.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +23.5% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−37.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−37.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.20% → 10%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+67.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +63.7% a year for the price.
Compare Mongolian Mining Corporation with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Coking Coal · 27 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score37 · Below median
Fair Value upside−64% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)1% · Above median
Return on assets2% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)1% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)10% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−4% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.28× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Coking Coal median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)123.0× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.03× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)1.55× · Pricier than median
P/FCF211.8× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA6.8× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 15
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)4· sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)86· sector 93
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 21
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Mongolian Mining Corporation (MOGLF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.4400 versus a price of $1.23, about −64% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MOGLF?
Our model-based fair value for Mongolian Mining Corporation is $0.4400 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1.23.
What is the quality score of MOGLF?
Mongolian Mining Corporation has a Quality Score of 37/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mongolian Mining Corporation (MOGLF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.4400 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.3200, optimistic scenario $0.5000. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mongolian Mining Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.4400, about −64% upside versus a price of $1.23 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.3200, optimistic scenario $0.5000. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mongolian Mining Corporation (MOGLF)?
Mongolian Mining Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $823M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Mongolian Mining Corporation (MOGLF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Mongolian Mining Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +67.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +14.6 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MOGLF use?
Our models discount Mongolian Mining Corporation at 11.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.09, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Mongolian Mining Corporation that is +67.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Mongolian Mining Corporation (MOGLF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Mongolian Mining Corporation grew +14.6 % a year. The price currently implies +67.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Mongolian Mining Corporation (MOGLF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Mongolian Mining Corporation (+67.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Mongolian Mining Corporation (MOGLF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.47 %: that much free cash flow Mongolian Mining Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Mongolian Mining Corporation (MOGLF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mongolian Mining Corporation it is $0.4400 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $1.23. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Mongolian Mining Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, MOGLF trades above its calculated fair value: price $1.23, fair value $0.4400, a gap of about −64% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MOGLF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.23); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.4400). For Mongolian Mining Corporation the two are $0.7900 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mongolian Mining Corporation worth?
The market values Mongolian Mining Corporation at about $1.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $1.23; our models calculate a fair value of $0.4400 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MOGLF?
Our models span a range for Mongolian Mining Corporation: cautious scenario $0.3200, base $0.4400, optimistic $0.5000 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $1.23). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MOGLF?
Mongolian Mining Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 123.0 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $0.4400 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.0, P/S 1.5, EV/EBITDA 6.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mongolian Mining Corporation (MOGLF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mongolian Mining Corporation (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 0.9%, debt of 0.28 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 37/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MOGLF from its 52-week high?
Mongolian Mining Corporation trades at $1.23, about 34% below its 52-week high of $1.85 and 68% above the low of $0.7300 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.4400 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mongolian Mining Corporation?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value PT Alamtri Minerals Indonesia Tbk,, Warrior Met Coal, Inc, Shanxi Meijin Energy Co, Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mongolian Mining Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $1.23, calculated fair value $0.4400 (−64%), Quality Score 37/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MOGLF calculated?
We run Mongolian Mining Corporation through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.4400, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Mongolian Mining Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mongolian Mining Corporation (MOGLF)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $1.23. Our model-based fair value is $0.4400, about −64% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mongolian Mining Corporation right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.5000). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (37/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Mongolian Mining Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Mongolian Mining Corporation (MOGLF)?
The market capitalisation of Mongolian Mining Corporation is $1.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Mongolian Mining Corporation (MOGLF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mongolian Mining Corporation is 0.91 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Mongolian Mining Corporation (MOGLF)?
Earnings per share at Mongolian Mining Corporation are $0.0100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 123.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Mongolian Mining Corporation (MOGLF)?
The net margin of Mongolian Mining Corporation is 0.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mongolian Mining Corporation (MOGLF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mongolian Mining Corporation is 0.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mongolian Mining Corporation (MOGLF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mongolian Mining Corporation is 8.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mongolian Mining Corporation (MOGLF)?
The operating margin of Mongolian Mining Corporation is 9.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mongolian Mining Corporation (MOGLF)?
Revenue at Mongolian Mining Corporation is growing −4.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +14.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Mongolian Mining Corporation (MOGLF)?
Earnings per share at Mongolian Mining Corporation are growing −72.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Mongolian Mining Corporation (MOGLF) carry?
The net debt of Mongolian Mining Corporation is $170M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 28.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 23, 2026