Mongolian Mining Corporation (MOGLF) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · US · Market cap $941M
Mongolian Mining Corporation
MOGLF · US
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 22 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 19, 2026, revised from $0.8300 to $0.2600 (−68.7%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +11.3% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 71% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.3400). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (37/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- A fairly wide model range ($0.1800 to $0.3400) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.2000 – $1.85 · fair‑value band $0.1800 – $0.3400 · the $0.8900 price screens above the $0.2600 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
Mongolian Mining Corporation (MOGLF) currently trades at $0.8900, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.2600, implying the stock looks roughly 70.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Mongolian Mining Corporation generated revenue of $823M at a net margin of 0.7%. Revenue declined 4.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 0.9%. Net debt stands at $170M. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $0.1800 (bear case) to $0.3400 (bull case); at $0.8900, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 52% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -56% fair-value upside, at -71%, MOGLF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 22 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based ($0.8000) versus Earnings-Based ($0.1000). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 16
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Mongolian Mining Corporation engages in mining, processing, transporting, and selling coking coal products in China. The company owns and operates the Ukhaa Khudag and the Baruun Naran open-pit coking coal mines located in South Gobi province of Mongolia.
Full company description
Mongolian Mining Corporation engages in mining, processing, transporting, and selling coking coal products in China. The company owns and operates the Ukhaa Khudag and the Baruun Naran open-pit coking coal mines located in South Gobi province of Mongolia. It is also involved in airport operation and management, water exploration and supply management, and power supply project management activities; exploration and development of coal mine; and trading of coal and machinery equipment. The company was incorporated in 2010 and is based in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Mongolian Mining Corporation reported revenue of $823M in FY2025 versus $184M in FY2021, a compound +45.4%/yr. Reported net income was $6.1M in FY2025.
MOGLF screens 71% overvalued. Compare with PT Alamtri Minerals Indonesia Tbk, →
Peer Group
Coking Coal · 28 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Coking Coal median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 25/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Coking Coal stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| PT Alamtri Minerals Indonesia Tbk, ADMR | 1,515 IDR | 1,267 IDR | -16% |
| Warrior Met Coal, Inc HCC | $78.91 | $18.35 | -77% |
| Shanxi Meijin Energy Co 000723 | ¥3.34 | ¥1.24 | -63% |
| Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc AMR | $143.80 | $45.29 | -69% |
| Shougang Fushan Resources Group 0639 | HK$2.39 | HK$2.34 | -2% |
| Shanxi Coking Co 600740 | ¥3.54 | ¥1.75 | -51% |
| Kailuan Energy Chemical Co 600997 | ¥5.41 | ¥1.72 | -68% |
| Ramaco Resources, Inc METC | $12.80 | $1.74 | -86% |
| Baotailong New Materials Co 601011 | ¥2.63 | ¥1.91 | -27% |
| SunCoke Energy, Inc SXC | $8.37 | $3.67 | -56% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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