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PT Matahari Putra Prima Tbk, (MPPA) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · ID · Market cap 623B IDR

PM PT Matahari Putra Prima Tbk, MPPA · JK
Price48.00 IDR
Fair Value130.33 IDR
Upside+171.5%
Quality35/100
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Weak Growth
Loss-making · -1.7% net margin
Negative equity (buybacks among others) · generates free cash flow
Mixed vs. peers (5/10)
Narrow moat 18/100
Evidence: Medium Range 61.29 IDR – 199.36 IDR Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026

From 9 valuation models · updated 29 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 12, 2026, revised from 130.52 IDR to 130.33 IDR (−0.1%) since Jun 25, 2026.

Below-average quality, screening 172% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (35/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (61.29 IDR). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • The model range is unusually wide (61.29 IDR to 199.36 IDR). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

1,235 IDR 40.00 IDR Fair Value 130.33 IDR Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 40.00 IDR – 1,235 IDR · fair‑value band 61.29 IDR – 199.36 IDR · the 48.00 IDR price screens below the 130.33 IDR fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.

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Analysis

PT Matahari Putra Prima Tbk, (MPPA) currently trades at 48.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 130.33 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 171.5% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, PT Matahari Putra Prima Tbk, generated revenue of 7.3T IDR at a net margin of -1.7%. Revenue grew 4.5% year over year. Net debt stands at 1.9T IDR. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 61.29 IDR (bear case) to 199.36 IDR (bull case); at 48.00 IDR, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 50% fair-value upside, at 172%, MPPA screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF 39.86 IDR 55.46 IDR 83.23 IDR 80
EV/EBITDA 207.41 IDR 276.44 IDR 345.47 IDR 54
EV/Revenue 33.79 IDR 48.14 IDR 62.49 IDR 43
All 9 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 37.92 IDR 53.86 IDR 84.53 IDR 38
Owner Earnings 106.03 IDR 150.81 IDR 237.00 IDR 31
5Y Revenue Exit 33.56 IDR 48.66 IDR 70.60 IDR 39
5Y EBITDA Exit 125.70 IDR 208.23 IDR 317.54 IDR 41
10Y Revenue Exit 33.98 IDR 45.61 IDR 58.06 IDR 36
10Y EBITDA Exit 92.12 IDR 146.58 IDR 206.43 IDR 37
Multiples
EV/EBITDA 207.41 IDR 276.44 IDR 345.47 IDR 54
EV/Revenue 33.79 IDR 48.14 IDR 62.49 IDR 43
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 39.86 IDR 55.46 IDR 83.23 IDR 80

Widest divergence: Growth DCF (55.46 IDR) versus Multiples (48.14 IDR). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 7.3T IDR
Revenue growth (YoY) +4.5%
Net margin -1.7%
Return on equity -199%
Free cash flow 47.8B IDR FY2025
Operating margin 1.8%
More key figures
EPS (TTM) -10.00 IDR
Net debt 1.9T IDR FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 35/100

Of which business quality 34 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 23

Profitability 39
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 22
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 22
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 8
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 35
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 22
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 9
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 46
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

PT Matahari Putra Prima Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a retailer in Indonesia. The company operates through Retail and Wholesale segments.

Full company description

PT Matahari Putra Prima Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a retailer in Indonesia. The company operates through Retail and Wholesale segments. The company offers food, beverages, and tobacco in minimarkets, supermarkets, and hypermarkets; and non-food items, such as clothing, home furnishing, toys, cosmetics, pharmaceuticals, and health products. It also operates Hypermart, Foodmart, Hyfresh, and Boston Health & Beauty stores. The company was founded in 1986 and is headquartered in Tangerang, Indonesia. PT Matahari Putra Prima Tbk is a subsidiary of PT Multipolar Tbk.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

PT Matahari Putra Prima Tbk, reported revenue of 7.3T IDR in FY2025 versus 6.7T IDR in FY2021, a compound +2.2%/yr. Reported net income was −152B IDR in FY2025.

Growth Quality 23/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
7.3T IDR
Latest YoY
−2.6%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−0.7%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+0.2%
Avg. growth/yr (25Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+2.1%
Revenue +2.2%/yr
FY21 6.7T IDR
FY22 7.4T IDR
FY23 6.9T IDR
FY24 7.4T IDR
FY25 7.3T IDR
Net income
FY21 −338B IDR
FY22 −430B IDR
FY23 −255B IDR
FY24 −118B IDR
FY25 −152B IDR

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "PT Matahari Putra Prima Tbk, Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MPPA

Peer Group

Department Stores · 127 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 35 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +172% · Top 25%
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) -2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 2% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth 5% · Above median

Valuation Multiples vs Department Stores median · lower = cheaper

P/FCF 0.0× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
PEG 0.65× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 26
FUTURE 23 · sector 2
PAST 0 · sector 16
HEALTH 100 · sector 96
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 37

PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Department Stores stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Falabella S.A FALABELLA 5,875 CLP 8,880 CLP +51%
El Puerto de Liverpool, S.A. LIVEPOLC1 99.62 MXN 263.70 MXN +165%
99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings 5326 3.70 MYR 1.45 MYR -61%
Cencosud S.A CENCOSUD 2,040 CLP 2,516 CLP +23%
Vishal Mega Mart Limited VMM ₹113.94 ₹37.39 -67%
SHINSEGAE Inc 004170 610,000 KRW 200,259 KRW -67%
Organización Soriana, S. A. B. de C. V., SORIANAB 30.04 MXN 59.59 MXN +98%
Lotte Shopping Co 023530 155,300 KRW 81,725 KRW -47%
Lojas Renner S.A LREN3 R$14.10 R$33.36 +137%
La Comer, S.A. LACOMERUBC 34.37 MXN 51.49 MXN +50%

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Frequently asked questions

Is PT Matahari Putra Prima Tbk, (MPPA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 12, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 130.33 IDR versus a price of 48.00 IDR, about +172% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MPPA?
Our model-based fair value for PT Matahari Putra Prima Tbk, is 130.33 IDR (as of Jul 12, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is 48.00 IDR.
What is the quality score of MPPA?
PT Matahari Putra Prima Tbk, has a Quality Score of 35/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of PT Matahari Putra Prima Tbk, (MPPA)?
PT Matahari Putra Prima Tbk, reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 7.3T IDR (latest available figure, as of Jul 12, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of MPPA?
The net profit margin of PT Matahari Putra Prima Tbk, is about -1.7%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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