mPay S.A (MPY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 23, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of mPay S.A stock PLN 0.42, price PLN 0.30, upside +37.0%, quality 27 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Fair value above price?Yes
Good quality?No
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 25, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 0.1310 PLN – 4.06 PLN · fair‑value band 0.2125 PLN – 0.7565 PLN · the 0.3040 PLN price screens below the 0.4165 PLN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 25, 2026.
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mPay S.A. operates as a provider of m-payment solutions in Poland. The company offers mPay application, which allows user to buy transport tickets, pay for paid parking, and top up prepaid telephone accounts using a smartphone or tablet.
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It also provides open banking and payment solutions; and artificial intelligence tools, as well as engages in development of the B2C and B2B segment, and financial services ecosystem.
In addition, the company offers public transport, planner, parking, PKP intercity, trains and buses, insurance, pay your bills, and entrance ticket services. mPay S.A. was incorporated in 2003 and is based in Warsaw, Poland.
Stock analysis
mPay S.A (MPY) currently trades at 0.3040 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 0.4165 PLN, implying the stock looks roughly 27.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 0.4900 PLN per share, and 8 of the 13 models we run sit above the 0.3040 PLN price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 0.1100 PLN, and 5 of the 13 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 0.2125 PLN (bear) to 0.7565 PLN (bull), the price of 0.3040 PLN sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 27/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
mPay S.A reported revenue of 20.2M PLN in FY2025 versus 16.8M PLN in FY2021, a compound +4.6%/yr. Reported net income was −1.0M PLN in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 24.4M PLN (≈ $6.2M) Micro · P/S ratio 1.55 · EPS (TTM) −0.0400 PLN · Net margin −21.9% · Return on equity −22.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.4% · Operating margin −21.3% · Revenue (TTM) 15.5M PLN.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 11 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 132% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at 37%, MPY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear0.2125 PLNFair Value 0.4165 PLNBull0.7565 PLN
Price 0.3040 PLN · Upside +37.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
EPV0.1200 PLN0.1400 PLN0.1600 PLN74
FCF DCF0.2600 PLN0.4900 PLN1.00 PLN73
Growth DCF0.2500 PLN0.5000 PLN0.8900 PLN73
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF0.2600 PLN0.4900 PLN1.00 PLN73
5Y Revenue Exit0.1700 PLN0.3100 PLN0.5100 PLN68
5Y EBITDA Exit0.2800 PLN0.5400 PLN0.8900 PLN70
10Y Revenue Exit0.1900 PLN0.3400 PLN0.5700 PLN63
10Y EBITDA Exit0.2700 PLN0.5100 PLN0.9100 PLN63
Earnings-Based
EPV0.1200 PLN0.1400 PLN0.1600 PLN74
Multiples
EV/EBIT0.1700 PLN0.2700 PLN0.3700 PLN64
EV/EBITDA0.2000 PLN0.3100 PLN0.4100 PLN66
EV/Revenue0.0300 PLN0.1000 PLN0.1600 PLN50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)0.0700 PLN0.1100 PLN0.1400 PLN54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF0.2500 PLN0.5000 PLN0.8900 PLN73
Rev-Margin DCF0.1700 PLN0.3100 PLN0.5000 PLN68
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder0.1200 PLN0.1400 PLN0.1600 PLN70
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
2.1% (2020) → 5.0% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+29.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Poland: IMF forecast 3.1% a year to 2030, 4.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +25.3% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Infrastructure · 343 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score27 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+37.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−2.2% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)−21.9% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)−21.3% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−42.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.22× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "mPay S.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MPY
Frequently asked questions
Is mPay S.A (MPY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 25, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 0.4165 PLN versus a price of 0.3040 PLN, about +37% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MPY?
Our model-based fair value for mPay S.A is 0.4165 PLN (as of Oct 25, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 0.3040 PLN.
What is the quality score of MPY?
mPay S.A has a Quality Score of 27/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for mPay S.A (MPY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 0.4165 PLN (as of Oct 25, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario 0.2125 PLN, optimistic scenario 0.7565 PLN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the mPay S.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 0.4165 PLN, about +37% upside versus a price of 0.3040 PLN (undervalued). Cautious scenario 0.2125 PLN, optimistic scenario 0.7565 PLN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of mPay S.A (MPY)?
mPay S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 15.5M PLN (latest available figure, as of Oct 25, 2026).
What growth is priced into mPay S.A (MPY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, mPay S.A would have to grow free cash flow by +29.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.6 % per year. As of Oct 25, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MPY use?
Our models discount mPay S.A at 9.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.37, country premium for Poland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For mPay S.A that is +29.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has mPay S.A (MPY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at mPay S.A grew +12.6 % a year. The price currently implies +29.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of mPay S.A (MPY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +16.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into mPay S.A (+29.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of mPay S.A (MPY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.29 %: that much free cash flow mPay S.A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of mPay S.A (MPY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For mPay S.A it is 0.4165 PLN per share (as of Oct 25, 2026), against a price of 0.3040 PLN. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is mPay S.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 25, 2026, MPY trades below its calculated fair value: price 0.3040 PLN, fair value 0.4165 PLN, a gap of about +37% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MPY?
No. The price is what the market pays today (0.3040 PLN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (0.4165 PLN). For mPay S.A the two are 0.1125 PLN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is mPay S.A worth?
The market values mPay S.A at about 24.4M PLN (market capitalisation, as of Oct 25, 2026). Per share that is 0.3040 PLN; our models calculate a fair value of 0.4165 PLN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MPY?
Our models span a range for mPay S.A: cautious scenario 0.2125 PLN, base 0.4165 PLN, optimistic 0.7565 PLN per share (as of Oct 25, 2026, price 0.3040 PLN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of mPay S.A (MPY)?
Balance-sheet figures for mPay S.A (as of Oct 25, 2026): return on equity −22.2%, debt of 0.22 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 27/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MPY from its 52-week high?
mPay S.A trades at 0.3040 PLN, about 20% below its 52-week high of 0.3780 PLN and 132% above the low of 0.1310 PLN (as of Oct 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 0.4165 PLN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to mPay S.A?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Microsoft Corporation, Palantir Technologies Inc, Oracle Corporation, Palo Alto Networks, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is mPay S.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 25, 2026: price 0.3040 PLN, calculated fair value 0.4165 PLN (+37%), Quality Score 27/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MPY calculated?
We run mPay S.A through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 0.4165 PLN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.3 % above its aggregate fair value. mPay S.A currently trades 27 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of mPay S.A (MPY)?
The closing price on Oct 23, 2026 was 0.3040 PLN. Our model-based fair value is 0.4165 PLN, about +37% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with mPay S.A right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (27/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The model range is unusually wide (0.2125 PLN to 0.7565 PLN). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of mPay S.A
How large is the market capitalisation of mPay S.A (MPY)?
The market capitalisation of mPay S.A is 24.4M PLN (≈ $6.2M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of mPay S.A (MPY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of mPay S.A is 1.55 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of mPay S.A (MPY)?
Earnings per share at mPay S.A are −0.0400 PLN. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of mPay S.A (MPY)?
The net margin of mPay S.A is −21.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of mPay S.A (MPY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of mPay S.A is −22.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of mPay S.A (MPY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of mPay S.A is 2.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of mPay S.A (MPY)?
The operating margin of mPay S.A is −21.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at mPay S.A (MPY)?
Revenue at mPay S.A is growing −42.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −9.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does mPay S.A (MPY) carry?
The net debt of mPay S.A is 9.0M PLN (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 16.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Oct 25, 2026