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Mips AB (MPZAF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Mips AB $16.16, price $37.63, upside -57.1%, quality 67 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Mips AB
MPZAF · USStretched ValuationQuality growthStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value $16.16 · Strongly overvalued (−57.1%)
✓Quality 67/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +7.9 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 22.9% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
✓Wide moat 78/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $10.32 – $54.32 · fair‑value band $11.00 – $26.72 · the $37.63 price screens above the $16.16 fair value. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Mips AB (publ) develops, manufactures, and sells helmet-based safety systems in North America, Europe, Sweden, Asia, and Australia.
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Mips AB (publ) develops, manufactures, and sells helmet-based safety systems in North America, Europe, Sweden, Asia, and Australia. The company provides sport helmets, which include bike, snow, equestrian, and team sports helmets, as well as other helmets, such as climbing, snowmobiling, and white-water rafting helmets; moto helmets comprising on-road and off-road helmets, including scooter, snowmobiling, car driving, and other helmets for travel and high speed activities; and safety helmets for construction, manufacturing, mining, and oil industries, as well as military, police force, and rescue services. Mips AB (publ) company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Täby, Sweden.
Stock analysis
Mips AB (MPZAF) currently trades at $37.63, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $16.16, 57.1% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $15.49 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $37.63 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $2.99, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $11.00 (bear) to $26.72 (bull), the price of $37.63 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Mips AB reported revenue of 533M SEK in FY2025 versus 608M SEK in FY2021, a compound −3.2%/yr. Reported net income was 120M SEK in FY2025, compounding −17.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $997M · P/E ratio 72.4 · P/S ratio 16.3 · EPS (TTM) $0.5200 · Net margin 22.5% · Return on equity 20.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 23.6% · Revenue (TTM) 530M SEK.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 39% fair-value upside, at −57%, MPZAF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($1.42 to $21.39). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear $11.00
Fair Value $16.16
Bull $26.72
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.3932 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$6.42
$9.52
$18.81
77
Growth DCF
$5.99
$10.17
$17.84
76
Residual Income
$2.46
$2.99
$4.17
76
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$6.42
$9.52
$18.81
77
Owner Earnings
$5.56
$11.88
$23.60
72
5Y Revenue Exit
$3.08
$4.73
$8.11
71
5Y EBITDA Exit
$5.90
$10.42
$19.28
72
5Y P/E Exit
$6.97
$15.81
$27.81
67
10Y Revenue Exit
$4.16
$7.57
$9.15
67
10Y EBITDA Exit
$6.11
$13.10
$25.03
64
10Y P/E Exit
$6.82
$15.21
$28.90
60
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$3.07
$21.39
$30.02
63
Lynch FV
$8.44
$12.05
$15.67
61
PEG = 1.0
$8.44
$12.05
$15.67
57
EPV
$3.18
$3.66
$4.06
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$5.02
$9.05
$12.46
68
DDM Multi-Stage
$5.02
$8.27
$9.67
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$7.44
$9.92
$12.40
63
P/S Multiple
$1.80
$2.40
$3.01
58
P/B Multiple
$5.75
$7.67
$9.59
55
EV/EBIT
$7.53
$10.15
$12.77
66
EV/EBITDA
$5.55
$7.51
$9.48
67
EV/Revenue
$1.35
$2.07
$2.79
53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$1.06
$1.42
$2.11
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$5.99
$10.17
$17.84
76
Rev-Margin DCF
$3.14
$5.47
$9.89
70
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$2.46
$2.99
$4.17
76
ROIC Compounder
$3.96
$5.71
$6.76
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$10.84
$15.49
$20.14
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
67/100
Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 56
Profitability
61
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
22
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
83
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
65
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
66
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
17
Calm price path (market factor)
52W Momentum
100
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
86/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +26.8% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+38.5%
’14
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’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
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’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−1.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−1.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−1.7% vs 21.4%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.46% → 29%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+44.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+28.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in SEK, Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +42.0% a year for the price and +26.0% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+48.5%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+29.0%
Projected 2028 (sales)+25.7%
Projected 2029 (sales)+22.3%
Projected 2030 (sales)+18.9%
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
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Frequently asked questions
Is Mips AB (MPZAF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $16.16 versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $37.63, about −57% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MPZAF?
Our model-based fair value for Mips AB is $16.16 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 25, 2026): $37.63.
What is the quality score of MPZAF?
Mips AB has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mips AB (MPZAF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $16.16 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $11.00, optimistic scenario $26.72. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mips AB stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $16.16, about −57% upside versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $37.63 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $11.00, optimistic scenario $26.72. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mips AB (MPZAF)?
Mips AB reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 530M SEK (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Mips AB (MPZAF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Mips AB would have to grow free cash flow by +44.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.9 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MPZAF use?
Our models discount Mips AB at 12.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.57, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Mips AB that is +44.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Mips AB (MPZAF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Mips AB grew +7.9 % a year. The price currently implies +44.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Mips AB (MPZAF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Mips AB (+44.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Mips AB (MPZAF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.32 %: that much free cash flow Mips AB produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Mips AB (MPZAF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mips AB it is $16.16 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $37.63. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Mips AB stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, MPZAF trades above its calculated fair value: price $37.63, fair value $16.16, a gap of about −57% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MPZAF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($37.63); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($16.16). For Mips AB the two are $21.47 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mips AB worth?
The market values Mips AB at about $997M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $37.63; our models calculate a fair value of $16.16 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MPZAF?
Our models span a range for Mips AB: cautious scenario $11.00, base $16.16, optimistic $26.72 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $37.63). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
Which stocks are comparable to Mips AB?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Pop Mart International Group, ANTA Sports Products Limited, Amer Sports, Inc, Hasbro, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mips AB stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $37.63, calculated fair value $16.16 (−57%), Quality Score 67/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MPZAF calculated?
We run Mips AB through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $16.16, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Mips AB itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mips AB (MPZAF)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 25, 2026 and stands at $37.63. Our model-based fair value is $16.16, about −57% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mips AB right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($26.72). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (67/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($11.00 to $26.72) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Mips AB
How large is the market capitalisation of Mips AB (MPZAF)?
The market capitalisation of Mips AB is $997M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Mips AB (MPZAF)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Mips AB is 72.4. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Mips AB (MPZAF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mips AB is 16.3 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Mips AB (MPZAF)?
Earnings per share at Mips AB are $0.5200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 72.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Mips AB (MPZAF)?
The net margin of Mips AB is 22.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mips AB (MPZAF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mips AB is 20.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mips AB (MPZAF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mips AB is 23.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast is revenue growing at Mips AB (MPZAF)?
Revenue at Mips AB is growing +30.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Mips AB (MPZAF)?
Earnings per share at Mips AB are growing +53.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Mips AB (MPZAF) carry?
The net debt of Mips AB is 113M SEK (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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