Marqeta, Inc (MQ) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $1.6B
Marqeta, Inc
MQ · US
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 10 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 18, 2026, revised from $5.84 to $6.45 (+10.4%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +3.4% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 60% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($7.64). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (69/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.42 – $33.25 · fair‑value band $5.25 – $7.64 · the $15.96 price screens above the $6.45 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Marqeta, Inc (MQ) currently trades at $15.96, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.45, implying the stock looks roughly 59.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Marqeta, Inc generated revenue of $652M at a net margin of 0.3%. Revenue grew 19.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 0.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $960M. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $5.25 (bear case) to $7.64 (bull case); at $15.96, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -50% fair-value upside, at -60%, MQ screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 10 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($8.80) versus Asset-Based ($1.30). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (72).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 67 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 76
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Marqeta, Inc. operates a cloud-based open API platform for card issuing and transaction processing services in the United States.
Full company description
Marqeta, Inc. operates a cloud-based open API platform for card issuing and transaction processing services in the United States. The company's platform also provides processor services, bank and network management, program management, and value added services; card issuing, such as debit, prepaid, credit, virtual, and physical cards; UI/UX; access to a suite of bank account and money movement features, including savings accounts, demand deposit accounts, direct deposit with early pay, ACH, cash loads, and fee-free ATMs, bill pay, and instant funding capabilities; Marqeta Dashboard, a self-service portal to access and manage all aspects of card program; TransactPay; Marqeta Hub for consumers, buy now, pay later (BNPL) providers, and card issuers; and credit capabilities, as well as Portfolio Migration which simplifies upgrading existing card programs into its platform. It offers its solutions in various verticals, including financial services, on-demand services, lending, expense management, and e-commerce enablement, as well as BNPL providers. Marqeta, Inc. was incorporated in 2010 and is headquartered in Oakland, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Marqeta, Inc reported revenue of $625M in FY2025 versus $517M in FY2021, a compound +4.8%/yr. Reported net income was −$13.9M in FY2025.
MQ screens 60% overvalued. Compare with Microsoft Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Marqeta (MQ) Expands Google Wallet Payments, Is The Stock Fully Valued?
- Marqeta (MQ) Stock Looks Reasonable Despite Its 85% Five Year Fall
- Marqeta Expands Collaboration with Google to Launch New Offering in Wallet for Kids
- Marqeta (MQ) Partners With Riskified To Tackle Fraud Before Card Authorization
Peer Group
Software - Infrastructure · 368 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 66/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Infrastructure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Microsoft Corporation MSFT | $384.00 | $274.17 | -29% |
| Oracle Corporation ORAC | C$9.08 | C$2.94 | -68% |
| Fortinet, Inc FTNT | $160.78 | $44.96 | -72% |
| Synopsys, Inc 1SNPS | €354.50 | €93.61 | -74% |
| Block, Inc XYZ | A$114.53 | A$70.69 | -38% |
| CoreWeave, Inc CRWV | $79.94 | $44.89 | -44% |
| Range Intelligent Computing Technology Group 300442 | ¥71.60 | ¥34.00 | -53% |
| Oracle Financial Services Software Limited OFSS | ₹11,651 | ₹5,821 | -50% |
| 360 Security Technology Inc 601360 | ¥9.64 | ¥5.05 | -48% |
| One97 Communications Limited PAYTM | ₹1,342 | ₹181.50 | -86% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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