Marqeta Inc (MQ) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Marqeta Inc $41.52, price $16.55, upside +150.9%, quality 67 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $13.68 – $133.00 · fair‑value band $27.99 – $62.07 · the $16.55 price screens below the $41.52 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.
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Marqeta, Inc. operates a cloud-based open API platform for card issuing and transaction processing services in the United States.
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Marqeta, Inc. operates a cloud-based open API platform for card issuing and transaction processing services in the United States. The company's platform also provides processor services, bank and network management, program management, and value added services; card issuing, such as debit, prepaid, credit, virtual, and physical cards; UI/UX; access to a suite of bank account and money movement features, including savings accounts, demand deposit accounts, direct deposit with early pay, ACH, cash loads, and fee-free ATMs, bill pay, and instant funding capabilities; Marqeta Dashboard, a self-service portal to access and manage all aspects of card program; TransactPay; Marqeta Hub for consumers, buy now, pay later (BNPL) providers, and card issuers; and credit capabilities, as well as Portfolio Migration which simplifies upgrading existing card programs into its platform. It offers its solutions in various verticals, including financial services, on-demand services, lending, expense management, and e-commerce enablement, as well as BNPL providers. Marqeta, Inc. was incorporated in 2010 and is headquartered in Oakland, California.
Stock analysis
Marqeta Inc (MQ) currently trades at $16.55, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $41.52, implying the stock looks roughly 60.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $42.70 per share, and 7 of the 8 models we run sit above the $16.55 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $5.32, and 1 of the 8 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $27.99 (bear) to $62.07 (bull), the price of $16.55 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Marqeta Inc reported revenue of $625M in FY2025 versus $517M in FY2021, a compound +4.8%/yr. Reported net income was −$13.9M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $1.7B · P/E ratio 177.3 · P/S ratio 2.45 · EPS (TTM) $0.0900 · Net margin −2.2% · Return on equity 1.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −8.4% · Operating margin 2.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at 151%, MQ screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $27.99Fair Value $41.52Bull $62.07
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0681 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+23.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.8%
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
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’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−16.2% (2020) → −4.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+29.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+12.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +26.4% a year for the price and +9.8% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Infrastructure · 358 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+144.2% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)1.3% · Below median
Return on assets−0.5% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)1.5% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)2.5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth17.0% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Marqeta Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MQ
Frequently asked questions
Is Marqeta Inc (MQ) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $41.52 versus a price of $16.55, about +151% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MQ?
Our model-based fair value for Marqeta Inc is $41.52 (as of Oct 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $16.55.
What is the quality score of MQ?
Marqeta Inc has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Marqeta Inc (MQ)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $41.52 (as of Oct 1, 2026) from 8 valuation models. Cautious scenario $27.99, optimistic scenario $62.07. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Marqeta Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $41.52, about +151% upside versus a price of $16.55 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $27.99, optimistic scenario $62.07. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Marqeta Inc (MQ)?
Marqeta Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $677M (latest available figure, as of Oct 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into Marqeta Inc (MQ)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Marqeta Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +29.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +16.6 % per year. As of Oct 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MQ use?
Our models discount Marqeta Inc at 12.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.29, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Marqeta Inc that is +29.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Marqeta Inc (MQ) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Marqeta Inc grew +16.6 % a year. The price currently implies +29.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Marqeta Inc (MQ) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +10.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Marqeta Inc (+29.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Marqeta Inc (MQ)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.10 %: that much free cash flow Marqeta Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Marqeta Inc (MQ)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Marqeta Inc it is $41.52 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026), against a price of $16.55. It is the blended result of 8 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Marqeta Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 1, 2026, MQ trades below its calculated fair value: price $16.55, fair value $41.52, a gap of about +151% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MQ?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($16.55); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($41.52). For Marqeta Inc the two are $24.97 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Marqeta Inc worth?
The market values Marqeta Inc at about $1.7B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 1, 2026). Per share that is $16.55; our models calculate a fair value of $41.52 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MQ?
Our models span a range for Marqeta Inc: cautious scenario $27.99, base $41.52, optimistic $62.07 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026, price $16.55). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MQ?
Marqeta Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 177.3 (as of Oct 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $41.52 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.5.
What is the PEG ratio of MQ?
The PEG ratio of Marqeta Inc is 1.50 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 1, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Marqeta Inc (MQ)?
Balance-sheet figures for Marqeta Inc (as of Oct 1, 2026): return on equity 1.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MQ from its 52-week high?
Marqeta Inc trades at $16.55, about 19% below its 52-week high of $20.44 and 10% above the low of $15.04 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $41.52 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Marqeta Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Microsoft Corporation, Palantir Technologies Inc, Oracle Corporation, CrowdStrike Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Marqeta Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 1, 2026: price $16.55, calculated fair value $41.52 (+151%), Quality Score 67/100, from 8 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MQ calculated?
We run Marqeta Inc through 8 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $41.52, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Marqeta Inc currently trades 60 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Marqeta Inc (MQ)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $16.55. Our model-based fair value is $41.52, about +151% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Marqeta Inc right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($27.99). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (67/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($27.99 to $62.07) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Marqeta Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Marqeta Inc (MQ)?
The market capitalisation of Marqeta Inc is $1.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Marqeta Inc (MQ)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Marqeta Inc is 2.45 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Marqeta Inc (MQ)?
Earnings per share at Marqeta Inc are $0.0900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 177.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Marqeta Inc (MQ)?
The net margin of Marqeta Inc is −2.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Marqeta Inc (MQ)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Marqeta Inc is 1.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Marqeta Inc (MQ)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Marqeta Inc is −8.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Marqeta Inc (MQ)?
The operating margin of Marqeta Inc is 2.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Marqeta Inc (MQ)?
Revenue at Marqeta Inc is growing +17.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −5.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net cash does Marqeta Inc (MQ) hold?
Marqeta Inc holds more cash than debt, $960M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Oct 1, 2026