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MS Industrie AG (MSAG) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of MS Industrie AG €2.04, price €1.24, upside +64.5%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Consumer Cyclical · DE · ISIN DE0005855183

MI Some data Sep 23, 2026

MS Industrie AG

MSAG · XETRA

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value €2.04 · Strongly undervalued (+65%)
!Quality 46/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −2.5 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -3.7% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (5/12)
!Narrow moat 15/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

€2.10 €1.14 Fair Value €2.04 Jul 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €1.14 – €2.10 · fair‑value band €1.20 – €3.01 · the €1.24 price screens below the €2.04 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

MS Industrie AG primarily operates in the powertrain and ultrasonic technology businesses in Germany and internationally. It designs, develops, and manufactures automotive components and systems for engines.

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MS Industrie AG primarily operates in the powertrain and ultrasonic technology businesses in Germany and internationally. It designs, develops, and manufactures automotive components and systems for engines. The company also offers services in the field of ultrasonic technologies for the automotive, textile, medical technology, consumer goods, and other industries, such as customer-specific and turnkey special ultrasonic machines; servo presses for welding, sealing, cutting, separating welding, and punching; and systems and components comprising generators and converters, amplitude transformers and sonotrodes, feed units, and manual ultrasonic welding units. In addition, it provides corporate finance, controlling and reporting, risk management, corporate governance, and transaction advisory services. Further, the company produces electric motors and associated components, centrifugal fans and blowers, and e-mobility drives for refrigeration logistics, textile machinery, pumps, lifting equipment, and various special mechanical engineering applications. Additionally, it operates a solar power plant. The company was formerly known as GCI Industrie AG and changed its name to MS Industrie AG in July 2012. The company was founded in 1991 and is headquartered in Munich, Germany.

Stock analysis

MS Industrie AG (MSAG) currently trades at €1.24, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €2.04, implying the stock looks roughly 39.2% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €1.87 per share, and 6 of the 10 models we run sit above the €1.24 price.

Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at €0.6300, and 4 of the 10 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: €1.20 (bear) to €3.01 (bull), the price of €1.24 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

MS Industrie AG reported revenue of €145M in FY2025 versus €165M in FY2021, a compound −3.2%/yr. Reported net income was −€5.3M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap €36.5M · P/S ratio 0.26 · EPS (TTM) €−0.1800 · Net margin −3.7% · Return on equity −9.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.7% · Operating margin −0.5% · Revenue (TTM) €145M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at 65%, MSAG screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear €1.20 Fair Value €2.04 Bull €3.01
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF €1.29 €2.11 €3.29 79
Growth DCF €1.32 €2.04 €3.02 78
5Y EBITDA Exit €1.13 €1.93 €2.85 74
All 10 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €1.29 €2.11 €3.29 79
5Y Revenue Exit €0.6700 €1.08 €1.57 72
5Y EBITDA Exit €1.13 €1.93 €2.85 74
10Y Revenue Exit €0.8700 €1.29 €1.81 67
10Y EBITDA Exit €1.18 €1.87 €2.76 68
Multiples
EV/EBITDA €1.21 €1.71 €2.22 67
EV/Revenue €0.3500 €0.6300 €0.9100 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €0.9200 €1.23 €1.84 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €1.32 €2.04 €3.02 78
Rev-Margin DCF €0.6700 €1.10 €1.59 72

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 46/100

Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 47

Profitability 31
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 16
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 20
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 40
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 85
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 36
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 23
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 93
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 18/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−15.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−11.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −6.2% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.7%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−8.4% (2020) → −1.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+10.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +8.3% a year for the price and +3.1% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+6.3%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+5.9%
Projected 2028 (sales)+5.4%
Projected 2029 (sales)+4.9%
Projected 2030 (sales)+4.4%

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Compare MS Industrie AG with another stock

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Parts · 692 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 46 · Below median
Fair Value upside +67% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets 0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 12% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.17× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.75× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.28× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF 19.2× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 7.9× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 27
FUTURE (revenue growth)60 · sector 21
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)92 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 38

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Ningbo Tuopu Group 601689 ¥45.71 ¥28.28 −38%
Bosch Limited BOSCHLTD ₹47,955 ₹25,325 −47%
Bharat Forge Limited BHARATFORG ₹2,004 ₹407.35 −80%
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MS Industrie AG · Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "MS Industrie AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MSAG

Frequently asked questions

Is MS Industrie AG (MSAG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €2.04 versus a price of €1.24, about +65% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MSAG?
Our model-based fair value for MS Industrie AG is €2.04 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €1.24.
What is the quality score of MSAG?
MS Industrie AG has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for MS Industrie AG (MSAG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €2.04 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario €1.20, optimistic scenario €3.01. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the MS Industrie AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €2.04, about +65% upside versus a price of €1.24 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €1.20, optimistic scenario €3.01. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of MS Industrie AG (MSAG)?
MS Industrie AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €145M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into MS Industrie AG (MSAG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, MS Industrie AG would have to grow free cash flow by +10.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -2.5 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MSAG use?
Our models discount MS Industrie AG at 8.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.19, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For MS Industrie AG that is +10.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has MS Industrie AG (MSAG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at MS Industrie AG grew -2.5 % a year. The price currently implies +10.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of MS Industrie AG (MSAG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into MS Industrie AG (+10.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of MS Industrie AG (MSAG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.83 %: that much free cash flow MS Industrie AG produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of MS Industrie AG (MSAG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For MS Industrie AG it is €2.04 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of €1.24. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is MS Industrie AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, MSAG trades below its calculated fair value: price €1.24, fair value €2.04, a gap of about +65% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MSAG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€1.24); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€2.04). For MS Industrie AG the two are €0.8000 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is MS Industrie AG worth?
The market values MS Industrie AG at about €36.5M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is €1.24; our models calculate a fair value of €2.04 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MSAG?
Our models span a range for MS Industrie AG: cautious scenario €1.20, base €2.04, optimistic €3.01 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price €1.24). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of MS Industrie AG (MSAG)?
Balance-sheet figures for MS Industrie AG (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −9.2%, debt of 0.17 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MSAG from its 52-week high?
MS Industrie AG trades at €1.24, about 16% below its 52-week high of €1.47 and 9% above the low of €1.14 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €2.04 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to MS Industrie AG?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value O'Reilly Automotive, Inc, AutoZone, Inc, Hyundai Mobis Co, Fuyao Glass Industry Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is MS Industrie AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price €1.24, calculated fair value €2.04 (+65%), Quality Score 46/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MSAG calculated?
We run MS Industrie AG through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €2.04, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. MS Industrie AG currently trades 65 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of MS Industrie AG (MSAG)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was €1.24. Our model-based fair value is €2.04, about +65% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with MS Industrie AG right now?
Solid quality (46/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (€1.20 to €3.01) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of MS Industrie AG

How large is the market capitalisation of MS Industrie AG (MSAG)?
The market capitalisation of MS Industrie AG is €36.5M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of MS Industrie AG (MSAG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of MS Industrie AG is 0.26 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of MS Industrie AG (MSAG)?
Earnings per share at MS Industrie AG are €−0.1800. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of MS Industrie AG (MSAG)?
The net margin of MS Industrie AG is −3.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of MS Industrie AG (MSAG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of MS Industrie AG is −9.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of MS Industrie AG (MSAG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of MS Industrie AG is 1.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of MS Industrie AG (MSAG)?
The operating margin of MS Industrie AG is −0.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at MS Industrie AG (MSAG)?
Revenue at MS Industrie AG is growing +11.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −11.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at MS Industrie AG (MSAG)?
Earnings per share at MS Industrie AG are growing −59.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does MS Industrie AG (MSAG) carry?
The net debt of MS Industrie AG is €19.7M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 9.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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