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Ceconomy AG (MTAGF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Ceconomy AG $9.96, price $5.04, upside +97.6%, quality 44 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? No
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Ceconomy AG
MTAGF · USCheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.
✓Fair value $9.96 · Strongly undervalued (+97.6%)
!Quality 44/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +2.1 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -0.3% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
!Narrow moat 18/100
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.86 – $33.34 · fair‑value band $6.68 – $13.24 · the $5.04 price screens below the $9.96 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Ceconomy AG, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the consumer electronics retail business. It operates stores under the MediaMarkt and Saturn brands. The company offers professional assistance for the installation, connection, and troubleshooting of electronic devices at home under the Deutsche Technikberatung brand.
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Ceconomy AG, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the consumer electronics retail business. It operates stores under the MediaMarkt and Saturn brands. The company offers professional assistance for the installation, connection, and troubleshooting of electronic devices at home under the Deutsche Technikberatung brand. It operates in Germany, Austria, Switzerland, and Hungary; Belgium, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, and Spain; and Western, Southern, and Eastern Europe. The company was formerly known as METRO AG. Ceconomy AG was incorporated in 2001 and is based in Düsseldorf, Germany.
Stock analysis
Ceconomy AG (MTAGF) currently trades at $5.04, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $9.96, implying the stock looks roughly 49.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $17.88 per share, and 13 of the 16 models we run sit above the $5.04 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $7.15, and 3 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $6.68 (bear) to $13.24 (bull), the price of $5.04 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Ceconomy AG reported revenue of €23.1B in FY2025 versus €21.4B in FY2021, a compound +2.0%/yr. Reported net income was −€35.0M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $2.4B · P/E ratio 504.0 · P/S ratio 0.10 · EPS (TTM) $0.0100 · Dividend yield 0.1% · Net margin −0.2% · Return on equity −9.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 5% fair-value upside, at 98%, MTAGF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $6.68
Fair Value $9.96
Bull $13.24
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0100 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$18.66
$25.07
$36.58
81
Growth DCF
$19.40
$25.58
$35.81
79
Owner Earnings
$13.39
$17.88
$25.93
77
All 16 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$18.66
$25.07
$36.58
81
Owner Earnings
$13.39
$17.88
$25.93
77
5Y Revenue Exit
$11.72
$14.82
$19.29
74
5Y EBITDA Exit
$18.64
$26.80
$37.61
75
10Y Revenue Exit
$14.24
$16.77
$19.31
68
10Y EBITDA Exit
$18.52
$24.01
$29.82
70
Earnings-Based
EPV
$6.33
$7.15
$7.86
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$0.0400
$0.0400
$0.0500
69
DDM Multi-Stage
$0.0400
$0.0500
$0.0600
67
Multiples
EV/EBIT
$10.79
$14.02
$17.24
66
EV/EBITDA
$21.57
$28.38
$35.19
67
EV/Revenue
$7.64
$10.44
$13.23
54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$0.5600
$0.7600
$1.13
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$19.40
$25.58
$35.81
79
Rev-Margin DCF
$11.72
$15.24
$19.75
74
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder
$6.33
$7.15
$7.86
72
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
44/100
Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 33
Profitability
38
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
29
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
41
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
23
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
96
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
55
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
32
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
11
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
61
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
34/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −9.0% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.4%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−0.2% (2020) → 1.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−24.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −26.1% a year for the price and −0.3% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+1.9%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+1.9%
Projected 2028 (sales)+1.9%
Projected 2029 (sales)+1.9%
Projected 2030 (sales)+1.9%
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Retail · 210 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Consumer Discretionary sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
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|---|---|---|---|
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| Ulta Beauty, Inc ULTA | $547.89 | $650.56 | +19% |
| Casey's General Stores, Inc CASY | $606.24 | $405.93 | −33% |
| Best Buy Co BBY | $89.91 | $94.70 | +5% |
| Tractor Supply Company TSCO | $31.73 | $36.59 | +15% |
| China Tourism Group 601888 | ¥51.46 | ¥40.40 | −21% |
| DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc DKS | $134.70 | $201.62 | +50% |
| Five Below, Inc FIVE | $222.60 | $184.99 | −17% |
| GameStop Corp GME | $23.39 | $13.85 | −41% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Ceconomy AG (MTAGF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $9.96 versus a price of $5.04, about +98% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MTAGF?
Our model-based fair value for Ceconomy AG is $9.96 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $5.04.
What is the quality score of MTAGF?
Ceconomy AG has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ceconomy AG (MTAGF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $9.96 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $6.68, optimistic scenario $13.24. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ceconomy AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $9.96, about +98% upside versus a price of $5.04 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $6.68, optimistic scenario $13.24. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ceconomy AG (MTAGF)?
Ceconomy AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €23.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Ceconomy AG pay a dividend?
Ceconomy AG currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.09% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Ceconomy AG (MTAGF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Ceconomy AG would have to grow free cash flow by -24.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.1 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MTAGF use?
Our models discount Ceconomy AG at 11.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.68, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Ceconomy AG that is -24.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Ceconomy AG (MTAGF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Ceconomy AG grew +2.1 % a year. The price currently implies -24.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Ceconomy AG (MTAGF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Ceconomy AG (-24.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Ceconomy AG (MTAGF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 31.78 %: that much free cash flow Ceconomy AG produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Ceconomy AG (MTAGF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ceconomy AG it is $9.96 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $5.04. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ceconomy AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, MTAGF trades below its calculated fair value: price $5.04, fair value $9.96, a gap of about +98% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MTAGF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($5.04); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($9.96). For Ceconomy AG the two are $4.92 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ceconomy AG worth?
The market values Ceconomy AG at about $2.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $5.04; our models calculate a fair value of $9.96 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MTAGF?
Our models span a range for Ceconomy AG: cautious scenario $6.68, base $9.96, optimistic $13.24 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $5.04). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of MTAGF?
The PEG ratio of Ceconomy AG is 0.34 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ceconomy AG (MTAGF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ceconomy AG (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −9.2%, debt of 1.48 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MTAGF from its 52-week high?
Ceconomy AG trades at $5.04, about 10% below its 52-week high of $5.57 and at the low of $5.04 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $9.96 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ceconomy AG?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc, Williams-Sonoma, Inc, Ulta Beauty, Inc, Casey's General Stores, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ceconomy AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $5.04, calculated fair value $9.96 (+98%), Quality Score 44/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MTAGF calculated?
We run Ceconomy AG through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $9.96, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Ceconomy AG currently trades 49 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ceconomy AG (MTAGF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $5.04. Our model-based fair value is $9.96, about +98% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ceconomy AG right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (44/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($6.68). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. A fairly wide model range ($6.68 to $13.24) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Ceconomy AG
How large is the market capitalisation of Ceconomy AG (MTAGF)?
The market capitalisation of Ceconomy AG is $2.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Ceconomy AG (MTAGF)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Ceconomy AG is 504.0. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Ceconomy AG (MTAGF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ceconomy AG is 0.10 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ceconomy AG (MTAGF)?
Earnings per share at Ceconomy AG are $0.0100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 504.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Ceconomy AG (MTAGF)?
The dividend yield of Ceconomy AG is 0.1% (payout 44.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Ceconomy AG (MTAGF)?
The net margin of Ceconomy AG is −0.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ceconomy AG (MTAGF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ceconomy AG is −9.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ceconomy AG (MTAGF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ceconomy AG is 2.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ceconomy AG (MTAGF)?
The operating margin of Ceconomy AG is −0.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ceconomy AG (MTAGF)?
Revenue at Ceconomy AG is growing +4.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ceconomy AG (MTAGF)?
Earnings per share at Ceconomy AG are growing +24.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Ceconomy AG (MTAGF) carry?
The net debt of Ceconomy AG is €1.3B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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