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MTR Corp Ltd (MTCPY) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of MTR Corp Ltd $10.60, price $12.42, upside -14.6%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Industrials · US · ADR · Home Hong Kong · ISIN US5537684095

MC MTR Corp Ltd logo Broad data Sep 29, 2026

MTR Corp Ltd

MTCPY · US

Weak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.

!Fair value $10.60 · Overvalued (−14.6%)
!Quality 46/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +5.4 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 27.6% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!10.6% dividend yield · Watch coverage
✓Ranks above peers (9/14)
✓Wide moat 66/100
!Weak on valuation: 8 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$17.02 $8.17 Fair Value $10.60 Apr 2017 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $8.17 – $17.02 · fair‑value band $5.11 – $11.76 · the $12.42 price screens above the $10.60 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.

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Company profile

MTR Corporation Limited engages in railway design, construction, operation, maintenance, and investment in Hong Kong, Australia, Mainland China, Macao, Sweden, and the United Kingdom.

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MTR Corporation Limited engages in railway design, construction, operation, maintenance, and investment in Hong Kong, Australia, Mainland China, Macao, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. It operates through Hong Kong Transport Operations; Hong Kong Station Commercial Businesses; Hong Kong Property Rental and Management Businesses; Hong Kong Property Development; Mainland China and International Railway, Property Rental and Management Businesses; Mainland China Property Development; and Other Businesses segments. The company offers passenger operation and related services on the domestic mass transit railway system, the Airport Express, cross-boundary railway connections, light rail and bus feeder with railway system, and intercity railway transport. It is also involved in railway project management and property development businesses; station commercial business, including leasing of station retail space, leasing of advertising space inside trains and stations, and enabling of telecommunication services on the railway system; property business comprising property development, investment, management, and leasing management of shopping malls and offices; and investment in related new technologies. In addition, the company provides railway management, engineering, and technology training services. MTR Corporation Limited was founded in 1975 and is headquartered in Kowloon Bay, Hong Kong.

Stock analysis

MTR Corp Ltd ADR (MTCPY) currently trades at $12.42, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $10.60, 14.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $16.00 per share, and 4 of the 16 models we run sit above the $12.42 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $5.59, and 12 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $5.11 (bear) to $11.76 (bull), the price of $12.42 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

MTR Corp Ltd ADR reported revenue of HK$55.4B in FY2025 versus HK$47.2B in FY2021, a compound +4.1%/yr. Reported net income was HK$14.0B in FY2025, compounding +10.1%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $25.8B · P/E ratio 13.8 · P/S ratio 3.49 · EPS (TTM) $0.9000 · Dividend yield 10.6% · Net margin 25.3% · Return on equity 7.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.8%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at −15%, MTCPY screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $5.11 Fair Value $10.60 Bull $11.76
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income $9.72 $10.32 $11.39 76
EPV $0.2900 $0.7900 $1.22 68
ROIC Compounder $0.2900 $0.7900 $1.22 68
All 16 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $5.86 $18.10 $24.05 65
Lynch FV $3.91 $5.59 $7.27 61
PEG = 1.0 $3.91 $5.59 $7.27 57
EPV $0.2900 $0.7900 $1.22 68
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $4.61 $9.58 $15.20 66
DDM Multi-Stage $4.61 $7.59 $10.05 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple $13.58 $18.11 $22.64 63
P/S Multiple $5.11 $6.81 $8.52 58
P/B Multiple $11.00 $14.66 $18.33 55
EV/EBIT $3.93 $6.13 $8.33 65
EV/EBITDA $2.87 $4.71 $6.56 65
EV/Revenue $1.62 $3.46 $5.30 51
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $5.91 $7.92 $11.83 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $9.72 $10.32 $11.39 76
ROIC Compounder $0.2900 $0.7900 $1.22 68
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $11.20 $16.00 $20.80 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 46/100

Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 58

Profitability 36
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 27
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 25
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 42
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 51
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 67
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 50
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 64
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 81
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 31/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−7.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.9% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.3%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+15.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+5.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)10.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5.3% vs 0.1%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−6% → 15%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

MTCPY screens overvalued: fair value 15% below the price. Compare with Union Pacific Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Railroads · 106 stocks

Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 46 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −19.2% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 7.7% · Above median
Return on assets 3.5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 27.6% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 37.0% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −8.6% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 10.6% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.46× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Railroads median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 13.8× · Cheaper than median
P/B 1.05× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 3.64× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 9.0× · Cheaper than median
PEG 0.86× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)8 · sector 20
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 21
PAST (return on equity)31 · sector 29
HEALTH (low debt)77 · sector 89
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 44

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Railroads stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Union Pacific Corporation UNP $272.13 $153.47 −44%
CSX Corporation CSX $46.51 $12.91 −72%
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited CP $86.56 $37.51 −57%
Canadian National Railway Company CNI $121.14 $98.68 −19%
Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC $309.00 $133.05 −57%
Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation WAB $288.00 $290.92 +1%
Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co 601816 ¥4.69 ¥5.65 +20%
CRRC Corporation 601766 ¥5.97 ¥9.21 +54%
Daqin Railway Co 601006 ¥4.66 ¥5.48 +18%
Getlink SE GET €18.83 €10.42 −45%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "MTR Corp Ltd ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MTCPY

Frequently asked questions

Is MTR Corp Ltd (MTCPY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $10.60 versus a price of $12.42, about −15% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MTCPY?
Our model-based fair value for MTR Corp Ltd ADR is $10.60 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $12.42.
What is the quality score of MTCPY?
MTR Corp Ltd ADR has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for MTR Corp Ltd (MTCPY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $10.60 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.11, optimistic scenario $11.76. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the MTR Corp Ltd ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $10.60, about −15% upside versus a price of $12.42 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $5.11, optimistic scenario $11.76. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of MTR Corp Ltd (MTCPY)?
MTR Corp Ltd ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$55.5B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does MTR Corp Ltd ADR pay a dividend?
MTR Corp Ltd ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 10.55% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of MTR Corp Ltd (MTCPY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For MTR Corp Ltd ADR it is $10.60 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of $12.42. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is MTR Corp Ltd ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, MTCPY trades above its calculated fair value: price $12.42, fair value $10.60, a gap of about −15% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MTCPY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($12.42); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($10.60). For MTR Corp Ltd ADR the two are $1.82 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is MTR Corp Ltd ADR worth?
The market values MTR Corp Ltd ADR at about $25.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is $12.42; our models calculate a fair value of $10.60 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MTCPY?
Our models span a range for MTR Corp Ltd ADR: cautious scenario $5.11, base $10.60, optimistic $11.76 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price $12.42). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MTCPY?
MTR Corp Ltd ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.8 (as of Sep 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $10.60 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.9, P/B 1.1, P/S 3.6, EV/EBITDA 9.0.
What is the PEG ratio of MTCPY?
The PEG ratio of MTR Corp Ltd ADR is 0.86 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 29, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of MTR Corp Ltd (MTCPY)?
Balance-sheet figures for MTR Corp Ltd ADR (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity 7.7%, debt of 0.46 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MTCPY from its 52-week high?
MTR Corp Ltd ADR trades at $12.42, about 14% below its 52-week high of $14.40 and 22% above the low of $10.21 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $10.60 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to MTR Corp Ltd ADR?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Union Pacific Corporation, CSX Corporation, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited, Canadian National Railway Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is MTR Corp Ltd ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price $12.42, calculated fair value $10.60 (−15%), Quality Score 46/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MTCPY calculated?
We run MTR Corp Ltd ADR through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $10.60, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. MTR Corp Ltd ADR itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of MTR Corp Ltd (MTCPY)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $12.42. Our model-based fair value is $10.60, about −15% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with MTR Corp Ltd ADR right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($11.76). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($5.11 to $11.76) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of MTR Corp Ltd (MTCPY) come from?
Earnings per share at MTR Corp Ltd ADR grew −1.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.8 %, EBIT margin −4.5 %, tax rate −0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of MTR Corp Ltd ADR

How large is the market capitalisation of MTR Corp Ltd (MTCPY)?
The market capitalisation of MTR Corp Ltd ADR is $25.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of MTR Corp Ltd (MTCPY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of MTR Corp Ltd ADR is 3.49 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of MTR Corp Ltd (MTCPY)?
Earnings per share at MTR Corp Ltd ADR are $0.9000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of MTR Corp Ltd (MTCPY)?
The dividend yield of MTR Corp Ltd ADR is 10.6% (payout 146%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of MTR Corp Ltd (MTCPY)?
The net margin of MTR Corp Ltd ADR is 25.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of MTR Corp Ltd (MTCPY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of MTR Corp Ltd ADR is 7.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of MTR Corp Ltd (MTCPY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of MTR Corp Ltd ADR is 3.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of MTR Corp Ltd (MTCPY)?
The operating margin of MTR Corp Ltd ADR is 37.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at MTR Corp Ltd (MTCPY)?
Revenue at MTR Corp Ltd ADR is growing −8.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at MTR Corp Ltd (MTCPY)?
Earnings per share at MTR Corp Ltd ADR are growing −28.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does MTR Corp Ltd (MTCPY) generate?
The free cash flow of MTR Corp Ltd ADR is −HK$7.7B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does MTR Corp Ltd (MTCPY) carry?
The net debt of MTR Corp Ltd ADR is HK$44.8B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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