Modern Times Group Mtg AB (MTG-A) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Modern Times Group Mtg AB SEK 170, price SEK 132, upside +28.5%, quality 64 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Modern Times Group MTG AB, through its subsidiaries, engages in the provision of game franchises in Sweden, the United Kingdom, Germany, rest of Europe, Singapore, India, the United States, and New Zealand. The company also provides in-app purchase, in-app advertising, and other digital distribution services.
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Modern Times Group MTG AB, through its subsidiaries, engages in the provision of game franchises in Sweden, the United Kingdom, Germany, rest of Europe, Singapore, India, the United States, and New Zealand. The company also provides in-app purchase, in-app advertising, and other digital distribution services. In addition, it develops and publishes mobile and online games under the PlaySimple, Plarium, InnoGames, Snowprint, Hutch, Futureplay, and Ninja Kiwi names. Modern Times Group MTG AB was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.
Stock analysis
Modern Times Group Mtg AB (MTG-A) currently trades at kr 132.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 169.63, implying the stock looks roughly 22.2% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of kr 179.14 per share, and 6 of the 14 models we run sit above the kr 132.00 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at kr 21.31, and 8 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: kr 114.29 (bear) to kr 223.31 (bull), the price of kr 132.00 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Modern Times Group Mtg AB reported revenue of 11.6B SEK in FY2025 versus 5.3B SEK in FY2021, a compound +21.5%/yr. Reported net income was −62.0M SEK in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 15.8B SEK (≈ $1.6B) · P/S ratio 1.17 · EPS (TTM) kr 0.0800 · Net margin −0.5% · Return on equity 1.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.4% · Operating margin 10.7% · Revenue (TTM) 12.2B SEK.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 64% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 44% fair-value upside, at 29%, MTG-A screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear kr 114.29Fair Value kr 169.63Bull kr 223.31
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 0.0605 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.81/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+92.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −3.3% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.9%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
5.3% (2017) → 21.5% (2023)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+2.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +0.2% a year for the price and +2.2% for the forecasts.
Compare Modern Times Group Mtg AB with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Electronic Gaming & Multimedia · 139 stocks
P/B0.15× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Modern Times Group Mtg AB Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MTG-A
Frequently asked questions
Is Modern Times Group Mtg AB (MTG-A) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 169.63 versus a price of kr 132.00, about +29% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MTG-A?
Our model-based fair value for Modern Times Group Mtg AB is kr 169.63 (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 132.00.
What is the quality score of MTG-A?
Modern Times Group Mtg AB has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Modern Times Group Mtg AB (MTG-A)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 169.63 (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 114.29, optimistic scenario kr 223.31. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Modern Times Group Mtg AB stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 169.63, about +29% upside versus a price of kr 132.00 (undervalued). Cautious scenario kr 114.29, optimistic scenario kr 223.31. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Modern Times Group Mtg AB (MTG-A)?
Modern Times Group Mtg AB reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 12.2B SEK (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into Modern Times Group Mtg AB (MTG-A)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Modern Times Group Mtg AB would have to grow free cash flow by +2.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +23.7 % per year. As of Oct 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MTG-A use?
Our models discount Modern Times Group Mtg AB at 10.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.84, country premium for Sweden. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Modern Times Group Mtg AB that is +2.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Modern Times Group Mtg AB (MTG-A) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Modern Times Group Mtg AB grew +23.7 % a year. The price currently implies +2.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Modern Times Group Mtg AB (MTG-A) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Modern Times Group Mtg AB (+2.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Modern Times Group Mtg AB (MTG-A)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.47 %: that much free cash flow Modern Times Group Mtg AB produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Modern Times Group Mtg AB (MTG-A)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Modern Times Group Mtg AB it is kr 169.63 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of kr 132.00. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Modern Times Group Mtg AB stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, MTG-A trades below its calculated fair value: price kr 132.00, fair value kr 169.63, a gap of about +29% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MTG-A?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 132.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 169.63). For Modern Times Group Mtg AB the two are kr 37.63 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Modern Times Group Mtg AB worth?
The market values Modern Times Group Mtg AB at about 15.8B SEK (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is kr 132.00; our models calculate a fair value of kr 169.63 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MTG-A?
Our models span a range for Modern Times Group Mtg AB: cautious scenario kr 114.29, base kr 169.63, optimistic kr 223.31 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price kr 132.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of MTG-A?
The PEG ratio of Modern Times Group Mtg AB is 0.59 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 2, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Modern Times Group Mtg AB (MTG-A)?
Balance-sheet figures for Modern Times Group Mtg AB (as of Oct 2, 2026): return on equity 1.5%, debt of 0.29 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MTG-A from its 52-week high?
Modern Times Group Mtg AB trades at kr 132.00, about 6% below its 52-week high of kr 140.00 and 64% above the low of kr 80.50 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 169.63 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Modern Times Group Mtg AB?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value NetEase, Inc, Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc, Roblox Corporation, Zhejiang Century Huatong Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Modern Times Group Mtg AB stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price kr 132.00, calculated fair value kr 169.63 (+29%), Quality Score 64/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MTG-A calculated?
We run Modern Times Group Mtg AB through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 169.63, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Modern Times Group Mtg AB currently trades 22 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Modern Times Group Mtg AB (MTG-A)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was kr 132.00. Our model-based fair value is kr 169.63, about +29% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Modern Times Group Mtg AB right now?
Solid quality (64/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (kr 114.29 to kr 223.31) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Modern Times Group Mtg AB
How large is the market capitalisation of Modern Times Group Mtg AB (MTG-A)?
The market capitalisation of Modern Times Group Mtg AB is 15.8B SEK (≈ $1.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Modern Times Group Mtg AB (MTG-A)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Modern Times Group Mtg AB is 1.17 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Modern Times Group Mtg AB (MTG-A)?
Earnings per share at Modern Times Group Mtg AB are kr 0.0800. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Modern Times Group Mtg AB (MTG-A)?
The net margin of Modern Times Group Mtg AB is −0.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Modern Times Group Mtg AB (MTG-A)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Modern Times Group Mtg AB is 1.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Modern Times Group Mtg AB (MTG-A)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Modern Times Group Mtg AB is 4.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Modern Times Group Mtg AB (MTG-A)?
The operating margin of Modern Times Group Mtg AB is 10.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Modern Times Group Mtg AB (MTG-A)?
Revenue at Modern Times Group Mtg AB is growing +1.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +27.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Modern Times Group Mtg AB (MTG-A)?
Earnings per share at Modern Times Group Mtg AB are growing +111% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Modern Times Group Mtg AB (MTG-A) carry?
The net debt of Modern Times Group Mtg AB is 2.7B SEK (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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