Metallus Inc (MTUS) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · US · Market cap $804M

A solid business, but screening 86% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($2.97). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
• The models converge in a tight band ($2.92 to $2.97), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $11.45 – $26.18 · fair‑value band $2.92 – $2.97 · the $21.67 price screens above the $2.93 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Metallus Inc (MTUS) currently trades at $21.67, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.93, implying the stock looks roughly 86.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Metallus Inc generated revenue of $1.2B at a net margin of 0.2%. Revenue grew 9.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 0.4%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $142M. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $2.92 (bear case) to $2.97 (bull case); at $21.67, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 53% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -7% fair-value upside, at -86%, MTUS screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Asset-Based ($11.04) versus Dividend Discount ($0.8600). Highest evidence: ROIC Compounder (72).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Metallus Inc. manufactures and sells alloy steel, and carbon and micro-alloy steel products in the United States and internationally.

Full company description

Metallus Inc. manufactures and sells alloy steel, and carbon and micro-alloy steel products in the United States and internationally. It provides special bar quality (SBQ) bars, seamless mechanical tubes, precision steel components, and billets that are used in gears, hubs, axles, crankshafts and motor shafts, oil country drill pipes, bits and collars, bearing races and rolling elements, bushings, fuel injectors, wind energy shafts, anti-friction bearings, artillery and mortar bodies, and other applications. The company also offers customized precision steel components. It offers its products and services to the automotive, energy, industrial equipment, mining, construction, rail, aerospace and defense, heavy truck, agriculture, and power generation sectors. The company was formerly known as TimkenSteel Corporation and changed its name to Metallus Inc. in February 2024. Metallus Inc. was founded in 1899 and is headquartered in Canton, Ohio.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Metallus Inc reported revenue of $1.2B in FY2025 versus $1.3B in FY2021, a compound −2.5%/yr. Reported net income was −$1.2M in FY2025.

MTUS screens 86% overvalued. Compare with Tata Steel Limited →

Peer Group

Steel · 378 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Steel median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 46/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.