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Metallus, Inc (MTUS) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Metallus, Inc $2.93, price $18.72, upside -84.4%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Basic Materials · US · ISIN US8873991033

MI Metallus, Inc logo Thin data Sep 23, 2026

Metallus, Inc

MTUS · US

Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value $2.93 · Strongly overvalued (−84%)
!Quality 51/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +6.9 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 0.2% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (3/13)
!Narrow moat 22/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 2 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$26.18 $11.45 Fair Value $2.93 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $11.45 – $26.18 · fair‑value band $2.92 – $2.97 · the $18.72 price screens above the $2.93 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Metallus Inc. manufactures and sells alloy steel, and carbon and micro-alloy steel products in the United States and internationally.

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Metallus Inc. manufactures and sells alloy steel, and carbon and micro-alloy steel products in the United States and internationally. It provides special bar quality (SBQ) bars, seamless mechanical tubes, precision steel components, and billets that are used in gears, hubs, axles, crankshafts and motor shafts, oil country drill pipes, bits and collars, bearing races and rolling elements, bushings, fuel injectors, wind energy shafts, anti-friction bearings, artillery and mortar bodies, and other applications. The company also offers customized precision steel components. It offers its products and services to the automotive, energy, industrial equipment, mining, construction, rail, aerospace and defense, heavy truck, agriculture, and power generation sectors. The company was formerly known as TimkenSteel Corporation and changed its name to Metallus Inc. in February 2024. Metallus Inc. was founded in 1899 and is headquartered in Canton, Ohio.

Stock analysis

Metallus, Inc (MTUS) currently trades at $18.72, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.93, implying the stock looks roughly 539.0% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $11.04 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $18.72 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $2.94, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $2.92 (bear) to $2.97 (bull), the price of $18.72 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Metallus, Inc reported revenue of $1.2B in FY2025 versus $1.3B in FY2021, a compound −2.5%/yr. Reported net income was −$1.2M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $784M · P/E ratio 267.4 · P/S ratio 0.68 · EPS (TTM) $0.0700 · Net margin −0.1% · Return on equity 0.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.4% · Operating margin 2.5%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −45% fair-value upside, at −84%, MTUS screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $2.92 Fair Value $2.93 Bull $2.97
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0512 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EPV $2.93 $2.94 $2.95 74
ROIC Compounder $2.93 $2.94 $2.95 72
EV/EBITDA $13.22 $16.68 $20.15 67
All 6 models by family
Earnings-Based
EPV $2.93 $2.94 $2.95 74
Multiples
EV/EBIT $3.10 $3.19 $3.28 66
EV/EBITDA $13.22 $16.68 $20.15 67
EV/Revenue $3.06 $3.16 $3.27 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $8.24 $11.04 $16.48 54
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder $2.93 $2.94 $2.95 72

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 51/100

Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 47

Profitability 27
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 50
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 6
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 60
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 83
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 38
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 50
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 52
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.5% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.7%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−6.1% (2020) → 0.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

MTUS screens 539% overvalued. Compare with Nucor Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Steel · 415 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 51 · Above median
Fair Value upside −84% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 0% · Below median
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 0% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 10% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.06× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Steel median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 267.4× · Priciest 25%
P/B 1.14× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 0.66× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 10.2× · Pricier than median
PEG 1.53× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 20
FUTURE (revenue growth)50 · sector 3
PAST (return on equity)2 · sector 16
HEALTH (low debt)97 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 51

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Steel stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Nucor Corporation NUE $245.66 $116.05 −53%
Steel Dynamics, Inc STLD $233.99 $127.14 −46%
JSW Steel Limited JSWSTEEL ₹1,298 ₹1,103 −15%
Tata Steel Limited TATASTEEL ₹190.82 ₹147.13 −23%
Reliance, Inc RS $386.95 $211.57 −45%
Baoshan Iron & Steel Co 600019 ¥5.73 ¥8.07 +41%
POSCO Holdings PKX $59.05 $68.58 +16%
Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union Co 600010 ¥2.12 ¥0.5500 −74%
Jindal Steel Limited JINDALSTEL ₹1,175 ₹516.27 −56%
Lloyds Metals and Energy Limited LLOYDSME ₹1,891 ₹771.10 −59%

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Metallus, Inc · Fair Value
$2.93 −539%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Metallus, Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MTUS

Frequently asked questions

Is Metallus, Inc (MTUS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.93 versus a price of $18.72, about −84% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MTUS?
Our model-based fair value for Metallus, Inc is $2.93 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $18.72.
What is the quality score of MTUS?
Metallus, Inc has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Metallus, Inc (MTUS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.93 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.92, optimistic scenario $2.97. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Metallus, Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.93, about −84% upside versus a price of $18.72 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.92, optimistic scenario $2.97. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Metallus, Inc (MTUS)?
Metallus, Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Metallus, Inc (MTUS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Metallus, Inc it is $2.93 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $18.72. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Metallus, Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, MTUS trades above its calculated fair value: price $18.72, fair value $2.93, a gap of about −84% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MTUS?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($18.72); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.93). For Metallus, Inc the two are $15.79 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Metallus, Inc worth?
The market values Metallus, Inc at about $784M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $18.72; our models calculate a fair value of $2.93 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MTUS?
Our models span a range for Metallus, Inc: cautious scenario $2.92, base $2.93, optimistic $2.97 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $18.72). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MTUS?
Metallus, Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 267.4 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $2.93 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.5, P/B 1.1, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 10.2.
What is the PEG ratio of MTUS?
The PEG ratio of Metallus, Inc is 1.53 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Metallus, Inc (MTUS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Metallus, Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 0.4%, debt of 0.06 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MTUS from its 52-week high?
Metallus, Inc trades at $18.72, about 15% below its 52-week high of $22.03 and 29% above the low of $14.56 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.93 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Metallus, Inc?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nucor Corporation, Steel Dynamics, Inc, JSW Steel Limited, Tata Steel Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Metallus, Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $18.72, calculated fair value $2.93 (−84%), Quality Score 51/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MTUS calculated?
We run Metallus, Inc through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $2.93, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Metallus, Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Metallus, Inc (MTUS)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $18.72. Our model-based fair value is $2.93, about −84% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Metallus, Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($2.97). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. The models converge in a tight band ($2.92 to $2.97), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.

Key figures of Metallus, Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Metallus, Inc (MTUS)?
The market capitalisation of Metallus, Inc is $784M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Metallus, Inc (MTUS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Metallus, Inc is 0.68 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Metallus, Inc (MTUS)?
Earnings per share at Metallus, Inc are $0.0700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 267.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Metallus, Inc (MTUS)?
The net margin of Metallus, Inc is −0.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Metallus, Inc (MTUS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Metallus, Inc is 0.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Metallus, Inc (MTUS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Metallus, Inc is 5.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Metallus, Inc (MTUS)?
The operating margin of Metallus, Inc is 2.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Metallus, Inc (MTUS)?
Revenue at Metallus, Inc is growing +9.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Metallus, Inc (MTUS)?
Earnings per share at Metallus, Inc are growing +332% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Metallus, Inc (MTUS) generate?
The free cash flow of Metallus, Inc is −$93.0M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Metallus, Inc (MTUS) hold?
Metallus, Inc holds more cash than debt, $142M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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