Manitowoc Company Inc (MTW) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Manitowoc Company Inc $3.65, price $22.48, upside -83.8%, quality 45 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value $3.65 · Strongly overvalued (−84%)
!Quality 45/100
!Expensive Growth(revenue 5y +9.2 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 0.3% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers(3/13)
!Narrow moat19/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $7.24 – $26.92 · fair‑value band $3.16 – $4.75 · the $22.48 price screens above the $3.65 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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The Manitowoc Company, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides engineered lifting solutions in the Americas, Europe, Africa, the Middle East, the Asia Pacific, and internationally.
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The Manitowoc Company, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides engineered lifting solutions in the Americas, Europe, Africa, the Middle East, the Asia Pacific, and internationally. The company designs, manufactures, and distributes crawler-mounted lattice-boom cranes under the Manitowoc brand; a line of top-slewing and self-erecting tower cranes under the Potain brand; mobile hydraulic cranes comprising rough-terrain cranes, all-terrain cranes, truck-mounted cranes, telescopic crawler cranes, industrial cranes, and hydraulic boom trucks under the Grove, Shuttlelift, and National Crane brands. It also provides aftermarket services, such as sale of parts and accessories, field service work, routine maintenance services, technical support, erection and decommissioning services, crane and component remanufacturing, training, and telematics services. The company's crane products are used in various applications, including energy production/distribution and utilities; petrochemical and industrial; infrastructure, such as road, bridge, and airport construction; and commercial and residential construction. It serves various customers, including dealers, rental companies, contractors, and government entities in the petrochemical, industrial, commercial construction, power and utilities, infrastructure, and residential construction end markets. The Manitowoc Company, Inc. was founded in 1902 and is headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
Stock analysis
Manitowoc Company Inc (MTW) currently trades at $22.48, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.65, implying the stock looks roughly 515.8% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $14.08 per share, and 1 of the 15 models we run sit above the $22.48 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $1.18, and 14 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $3.16 (bear) to $4.75 (bull), the price of $22.48 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Manitowoc Company Inc reported revenue of $2.2B in FY2025 versus $1.7B in FY2021, a compound +6.8%/yr. Reported net income was $7.2M in FY2025, compounding −10.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $811M · P/E ratio 107.0 · P/S ratio 0.34 · EPS (TTM) $0.2100 · Net margin 0.3% · Return on equity 1.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.7% · Operating margin 0.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 131% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 16% fair-value upside, at −84%, MTW screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($1.18 to $33.76). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear $3.16Fair Value $3.65Bull $4.75
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1536 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.47/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −4.2% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+4.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−24% vs −24%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 6.0%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · 154 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score45 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−84% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)1% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth5% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.64× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)107.0× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.17× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)0.36× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA10.0× · Cheaper than median
PEG2.88× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 40
FUTURE (revenue growth)25· sector 30
PAST (return on equity)4· sector 34
HEALTH (low debt)68· sector 93
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 42
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Manitowoc Company Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MTW
Frequently asked questions
Is Manitowoc Company Inc (MTW) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $3.65 versus a price of $22.48, about −84% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MTW?
Our model-based fair value for Manitowoc Company Inc is $3.65 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $22.48.
What is the quality score of MTW?
Manitowoc Company Inc has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Manitowoc Company Inc (MTW)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $3.65 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.16, optimistic scenario $4.75. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Manitowoc Company Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $3.65, about −84% upside versus a price of $22.48 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $3.16, optimistic scenario $4.75. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Manitowoc Company Inc (MTW)?
Manitowoc Company Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Manitowoc Company Inc (MTW)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Manitowoc Company Inc it is $3.65 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $22.48. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Manitowoc Company Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, MTW trades above its calculated fair value: price $22.48, fair value $3.65, a gap of about −84% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MTW?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($22.48); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($3.65). For Manitowoc Company Inc the two are $18.83 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Manitowoc Company Inc worth?
The market values Manitowoc Company Inc at about $811M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $22.48; our models calculate a fair value of $3.65 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MTW?
Our models span a range for Manitowoc Company Inc: cautious scenario $3.16, base $3.65, optimistic $4.75 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $22.48). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MTW?
Manitowoc Company Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 107.0 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $3.65 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.9, P/B 1.2, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 10.0.
What is the PEG ratio of MTW?
The PEG ratio of Manitowoc Company Inc is 2.88 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Manitowoc Company Inc (MTW)?
Balance-sheet figures for Manitowoc Company Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 1.1%, debt of 0.64 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MTW from its 52-week high?
Manitowoc Company Inc trades at $22.48, about 1% below its 52-week high of $22.76 and 131% above the low of $9.73 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $3.65 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Manitowoc Company Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Caterpillar Inc, Deere & Company, PACCAR Inc, Daimler Truck Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Manitowoc Company Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $22.48, calculated fair value $3.65 (−84%), Quality Score 45/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MTW calculated?
We run Manitowoc Company Inc through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $3.65, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Manitowoc Company Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Manitowoc Company Inc (MTW)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $22.48. Our model-based fair value is $3.65, about −84% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Manitowoc Company Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($4.75). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (45/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Manitowoc Company Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Manitowoc Company Inc (MTW)?
The market capitalisation of Manitowoc Company Inc is $811M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Manitowoc Company Inc (MTW)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Manitowoc Company Inc is 0.34 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Manitowoc Company Inc (MTW)?
Earnings per share at Manitowoc Company Inc are $0.2100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 107.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Manitowoc Company Inc (MTW)?
The net margin of Manitowoc Company Inc is 0.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Manitowoc Company Inc (MTW)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Manitowoc Company Inc is 1.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Manitowoc Company Inc (MTW)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Manitowoc Company Inc is 1.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Manitowoc Company Inc (MTW)?
The operating margin of Manitowoc Company Inc is 0.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Manitowoc Company Inc (MTW)?
Revenue at Manitowoc Company Inc is growing +5.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Manitowoc Company Inc (MTW)?
Earnings per share at Manitowoc Company Inc are growing −88.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Manitowoc Company Inc (MTW) generate?
The free cash flow of Manitowoc Company Inc is −$15.3M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Manitowoc Company Inc (MTW) carry?
The net debt of Manitowoc Company Inc is $506M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 23, 2026