MX.TO (MX) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · CA · Market cap C$5.9B (≈ $4.3B) · ISIN CA59151K1084
What is MX.TO really worth?
A solid business, but trading 355% above our fair value of C$17.86.
As of Aug 18, 2026, the fair value of MX.TO is C$17.86 per share against a price of C$81.18, so the fair value sits 78% below the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 18, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 19 days ago
Share price +11.5% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$22.32). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$35.56 – C$90.27 · fair‑value band C$13.39 – C$22.32 · the C$81.18 price screens above the C$17.86 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 18, 2026.
Analysis
MX.TO (MX) currently trades at C$81.18, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$17.86, implying the stock looks roughly 354.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of C$64.00 per share, and 5 of the 25 models we run sit above the C$81.18 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at C$9.21, and 20 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, MX.TO generated revenue of C$3.7B at a net margin of −1.2%. Revenue grew 8.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 0.6%. Net debt stands at C$3.1B. Fundamentals as of Aug 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from C$13.39 (bear case) to C$22.32 (bull case); at C$81.18, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 85% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −48% fair-value upside, at −78%, MX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF (C$64.00) versus Dividend Discount (C$9.21). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 68
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Methanex Corporation engages in the production and sale of methanol and ammonia in Asia Pacific, North America, Europe, and South America. It also owns and leases in-region storage and terminal facilities. The company serves chemical and petrochemical producers. Methanex Corporation was incorporated in 1968 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
MX.TO reported revenue of $3.7B in FY2025 versus $4.4B in FY2021, a compound −4.6%/yr. Reported net income was $81.3M in FY2025, compounding −35.9%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +3.3 % · buybacks/dilution +3.2 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
MX screens 355% overvalued. Compare with Saudi Basic Industries Corporation →
Peer Group
Chemicals · 340 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Chemicals stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Basic Industries Corporation 2010 | 49.50 SAR | 18.13 SAR | −63% |
| A. Schulman, Inc SLMNP | $849.00 | $203.64 | −76% |
| Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group 600989 | ¥24.49 | ¥20.17 | −18% |
| Dow Inc DOW | $30.51 | $21.03 | −31% |
| Zhejiang Juhua Co 600160 | ¥41.32 | ¥21.62 | −48% |
| Rongsheng Petrochemical Co 002493 | ¥13.76 | ¥2.39 | −83% |
| Zangge Mining Company 000408 | ¥78.04 | ¥20.99 | −73% |
| PT Barito Pacific Tbk, BRPT | 1,855 IDR | 1,584 IDR | −15% |
| Ganfeng Lithium Group 002460 | ¥52.53 | ¥16.17 | −69% |
| Hengli Petrochemical Co 600346 | ¥18.87 | ¥17.09 | −9% |
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