Orbia Advance Corp (MXCHY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Orbia Advance Corp $3.45, price $2.23, upside +54.7%, quality 41 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.22 – $4.88 · fair‑value band $1.04 – $6.97 · the $2.23 price screens below the $3.45 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Orbia Advance Corporation, S.A.B. de C.V., together with its subsidiaries, provides polymer solutions in the United States, Northwest Europe, Southwest Europe, Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Brazil, Mexico, Central and Eastern Europe, Colombia, Central America, Peru, Southeast Europe, Canada, Ecuador, Israel, Argentina, Chile, and internationally.
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Orbia Advance Corporation, S.A.B. de C.V., together with its subsidiaries, provides polymer solutions in the United States, Northwest Europe, Southwest Europe, Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Brazil, Mexico, Central and Eastern Europe, Colombia, Central America, Peru, Southeast Europe, Canada, Ecuador, Israel, Argentina, Chile, and internationally. It operates in five segments: Polymer Solutions, Building and Infrastructure, Precision Agriculture, Connectivity Solutions, and Fluor and Energy Materials. The company offers derivatives comprising ethylene, salt, chlorine, caustic soda, methyl and ethyl chloride, hydrochloric acid, and sodium hypochlorite; general-purpose and specialty polyvinyl chloride resins; and plastic compounds. It also provides plastic piping systems and solutions; high-density polyethylene conduit, accessories, and other connectivity infrastructure products; digital education and fiber-optic network design services; sprinklers, micro-sprinklers, drippers, drip lines, greenhouse solutions, and advanced digital technology for agriculture and greenhouse components; and strategic system components, such as filters, valves, and air valves. In addition, the company offers fluorite; hydrofluoric acid and aluminum trifluoride; refrigerant and medical propellant gases, such as R-134a gas; and fluorinated additives and co-solvents, fluor silane and electrolyte additives, electrolyte salts, and binders for lithium-ion batteries. It exports its products. The company was formerly known as Mexichem, S.A.B. de C.V. and changed its name to Orbia Advance Corporation, S.A.B. de C.V. in August 2019. Orbia Advance Corporation, S.A.B. de C.V. was founded in 1953 and is headquartered in Mexico City, Mexico.
Stock analysis
Orbia Advance Corp (MXCHY) currently trades at $2.23, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.45, implying the stock looks roughly 35.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $2.54 per share, and 4 of the 5 models we run sit above the $2.23 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $1.49, and 1 of the 5 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $1.04 (bear) to $6.97 (bull), the price of $2.23 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Orbia Advance Corp reported revenue of $7.6B in FY2025 versus $8.8B in FY2021, a compound −3.4%/yr. Reported net income was −$458M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $2.4B · P/S ratio 0.30 · EPS (TTM) $−0.4600 · Dividend yield 6.8% · Net margin −6.0% · Return on equity −12.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.8% · Operating margin 4.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 38% fair-value upside, at 55%, MXCHY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $1.04Fair Value $3.45Bull $6.97
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.37/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.0% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.8%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
11.6% (2020) → 5.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+18.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +15.5% a year for the price and +0.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Conglomerates · 378 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score41 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+55% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)−6% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth8% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)6.8% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity2.13× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper
P/B1.11× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Orbia Advance Corp (MXCHY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $3.45 versus a price of $2.23, about +55% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MXCHY?
Our model-based fair value for Orbia Advance Corp is $3.45 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $2.23.
What is the quality score of MXCHY?
Orbia Advance Corp has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Orbia Advance Corp (MXCHY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $3.45 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 5 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.04, optimistic scenario $6.97. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Orbia Advance Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $3.45, about +55% upside versus a price of $2.23 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $1.04, optimistic scenario $6.97. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Orbia Advance Corp (MXCHY)?
Orbia Advance Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $7.8B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Orbia Advance Corp pay a dividend?
Orbia Advance Corp currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.77% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Orbia Advance Corp (MXCHY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Orbia Advance Corp would have to grow free cash flow by +18.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.6 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MXCHY use?
Our models discount Orbia Advance Corp at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.71, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Orbia Advance Corp that is +18.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Orbia Advance Corp (MXCHY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Orbia Advance Corp grew +3.6 % a year. The price currently implies +18.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Orbia Advance Corp (MXCHY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Orbia Advance Corp (+18.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Orbia Advance Corp (MXCHY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 13.89 %: that much free cash flow Orbia Advance Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Orbia Advance Corp (MXCHY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Orbia Advance Corp it is $3.45 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $2.23. It is the blended result of 5 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Orbia Advance Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, MXCHY trades below its calculated fair value: price $2.23, fair value $3.45, a gap of about +55% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MXCHY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($2.23); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($3.45). For Orbia Advance Corp the two are $1.22 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Orbia Advance Corp worth?
The market values Orbia Advance Corp at about $2.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $2.23; our models calculate a fair value of $3.45 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MXCHY?
Our models span a range for Orbia Advance Corp: cautious scenario $1.04, base $3.45, optimistic $6.97 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $2.23). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Orbia Advance Corp (MXCHY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Orbia Advance Corp (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −12.0%, debt of 2.13 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MXCHY from its 52-week high?
Orbia Advance Corp trades at $2.23, about 21% below its 52-week high of $2.82 and 29% above the low of $1.73 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $3.45 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Orbia Advance Corp?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value 3M Company, Honeywell International Inc, CITIC Limited, Poste Italiane S.p.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Orbia Advance Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $2.23, calculated fair value $3.45 (+55%), Quality Score 41/100, from 5 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MXCHY calculated?
We run Orbia Advance Corp through 5 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $3.45, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Orbia Advance Corp currently trades 55 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Orbia Advance Corp (MXCHY)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $2.23. Our model-based fair value is $3.45, about +55% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Orbia Advance Corp right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (41/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The model range is unusually wide ($1.04 to $6.97). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Where does the earnings growth of Orbia Advance Corp (MXCHY) come from?
Earnings per share at Orbia Advance Corp grew −0.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.1 %, EBIT margin +7.2 %, tax rate −3.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −12.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Orbia Advance Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Orbia Advance Corp (MXCHY)?
The market capitalisation of Orbia Advance Corp is $2.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Orbia Advance Corp (MXCHY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Orbia Advance Corp is 0.30 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Orbia Advance Corp (MXCHY)?
Earnings per share at Orbia Advance Corp are $−0.4600. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Orbia Advance Corp (MXCHY)?
The dividend yield of Orbia Advance Corp is 6.8%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Orbia Advance Corp (MXCHY)?
The net margin of Orbia Advance Corp is −6.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Orbia Advance Corp (MXCHY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Orbia Advance Corp is −12.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Orbia Advance Corp (MXCHY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Orbia Advance Corp is 7.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Orbia Advance Corp (MXCHY)?
The operating margin of Orbia Advance Corp is 4.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Orbia Advance Corp (MXCHY)?
Revenue at Orbia Advance Corp is growing +8.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −7.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Orbia Advance Corp (MXCHY)?
Earnings per share at Orbia Advance Corp are growing +25.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Orbia Advance Corp (MXCHY) carry?
The net debt of Orbia Advance Corp is $4.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 31.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 24, 2026