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Data-driven stock valuation

Mazda Motor Corp ADR (MZDAY) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Mazda Motor Corp ADR is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.

  1. Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
  2. Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
  3. Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes

Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $4.6B · ISIN US5787871038

At a glance

MM Mazda Motor Corp ADR logo Mazda Motor Corp ADR MZDAY · US
Price$3.73
Fair Value$5.97
Upside+60.0%
Quality42/100

Below-average quality, trading 38% below our fair value of $5.97.

As of Sep 8, 2026, the fair value of Mazda Motor Corp ADR is $5.97 per share against a price of $3.73, so the fair value sits 60% above the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.

!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +12.6 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 2.1% net margin
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
·5.21% dividend yield
✓Ranks above peers (9/13)
!Narrow moat 24/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 24 out of 100
Evidence: Medium Range $4.78 to $6.83

Fair value as of: Sep 8, 2026

From 15 valuation models · updated today

Fair value updated Sep 8, 2026, revised from $4.09 to $5.97 (+45.9%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price +3.9% over the past month.

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (42/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
  • The price is below even our cautious bear case ($4.78). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$5.50 $2.35 Fair Value $5.97 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 8, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $2.35 – $5.50 · fair‑value band $4.78 – $6.83 · the $3.73 price screens below the $5.97 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 8, 2026.

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Analysis

Mazda Motor Corp ADR (MZDAY) currently trades at $3.73, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $5.97, implying the stock looks roughly 37.5% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $7.33 per share, and 7 of the 15 models we run sit above the $3.73 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $1.03, and 8 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Over the trailing twelve months, Mazda Motor Corp ADR generated revenue of ¥4.9T at a net margin of 0.7%. Revenue grew 6.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 1.9%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of ¥215B. Fundamentals as of Sep 8, 2026

Scenario range: $4.78 (bear) to $6.83 (bull), the price of $3.73 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 45% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at 60%, MZDAY screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Owner Earnings best evidence $5.53 $7.33 $9.88 77
EPV $3.16 $3.37 $3.56 74
ROIC Compounder $3.16 $3.37 $3.56 72
All 15 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings best evidence $5.53 $7.33 $9.88 77
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $1.26 $3.56 $4.68 65
Lynch FV $0.7209 $1.03 $1.34 61
PEG = 1.0 $0.7209 $1.03 $1.34 57
EPV $3.16 $3.37 $3.56 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple $3.07 $4.09 $5.11 63
P/S Multiple $2.37 $3.16 $3.95 58
P/B Multiple $2.37 $3.16 $3.95 55
EV/EBIT $5.49 $6.72 $7.95 66
EV/EBITDA $10.04 $12.78 $15.53 67
EV/Revenue $4.29 $5.36 $6.42 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $4.78 $6.41 $9.57 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $6.61 $6.22 $4.77 71
ROIC Compounder $3.16 $3.37 $3.56 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $2.44 $3.49 $4.54 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models ($7.33) versus Earnings-Based ($1.03). Highest evidence: Owner Earnings (77).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 20.7
P/S ratio 0.15 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $0.1800 price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.7
Dividend yield 5.2% payout 108%
Net margin 0.7% FY2026
Return on equity 5.9% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 4.0% avg 5y
Operating margin 2.6% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) ¥5.1T TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +16.9% 3y avg +10.9%
EPS growth (YoY) +111%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow −¥94.5B FY2026
Net cash ¥215B FY2026

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 8, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 42/100

Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 59

Profitability 37
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 24
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 6
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 57
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 65
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 71
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 51
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 59
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 81
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Mazda Motor Corporation engages in the manufacture and sale of passenger cars and commercial vehicles in Japan, North America, Europe, and internationally. The company was formerly known as Toyo Kogyo Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Mazda Motor Corporation in May 1984.

Full company description

Mazda Motor Corporation engages in the manufacture and sale of passenger cars and commercial vehicles in Japan, North America, Europe, and internationally. The company was formerly known as Toyo Kogyo Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Mazda Motor Corporation in May 1984. Mazda Motor Corporation was incorporated in 1920 and is headquartered in Hiroshima, Japan.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

Mazda Motor Corp ADR reported revenue of ¥5.2T in FY2026 versus ¥3.1T in FY2022, a compound +13.7%/yr. Reported net income was ¥37.2B in FY2026, compounding −17.8%/yr from FY2022.

Growth Quality 55/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2026)
¥5.2T
Latest YoY
+3.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+10.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+12.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (27Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+3.5%
Value creation/yr (5Y, in JPY) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+0.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share−4.5%
Dividend yield5.2%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y −4.5% vs 10Y −12.1%, picking up
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.0.3% (2021) → 1.0% (2026) · steady
Worst earnings drop677% (2012) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in JPY
Revenue +13.7%/yr
FY22 ¥3.1T
FY23 ¥3.8T
FY24 ¥4.8T
FY25 ¥5.0T
FY26 ¥5.2T
Net income −17.8%/yr
FY22 ¥81.6B
FY23 ¥143B
FY24 ¥208B
FY25 ¥114B
FY26 ¥37.2B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2015-2026) −0.8 % p.a.
Revenue per share +5.0 %

of which total revenue +5.1 % · buybacks/dilution +0.0 %

EBIT margin −6.1 %
Tax rate −1.2 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) +1.8 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Mazda Motor Corp ADR · Fair Value
$5.97 +38%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Mazda Motor Corp ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MZDAY

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Auto Manufacturers · 115 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation
Quality Score 42 · Below median
Fair Value upside +63% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 6% · Above median
Return on assets 2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 2% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 17% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 5.2% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.38× · Above median

Valuation Multiples vs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 20.7× · Pricier than median
P/B 0.38× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.14× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 1.4× · Cheapest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE100 · sector 24
FUTURE85 · sector 28
PAST24 · sector 21
HEALTH81 · sector 94
DIVIDEND94 · sector 50

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Auto Manufacturers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 8, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Toyota Motor Corporation TM $188.78 $235.50 +25%
BYD Company 81211 HK$73.50 HK$46.64 −37%
Hyundai Motor Company 005380 418,500 KRW 567,393 KRW +36%
Ferrari N.V RACE €355.50 €167.67 −53%
General Motors Company GM $86.27 $52.69 −39%
Ford Motor Company F $13.88 $11.51 −17%
Mercedes-Benz Group MBG €47.69 €106.16 +123%
Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche AG P911 €43.91 €17.34 −61%
Maruti Suzuki India Limited MARUTI ₹12,694 ₹8,236 −35%
Volkswagen AG VOW €81.65 €248.34 +204%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Mazda Motor Corp ADR (MZDAY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $5.97 versus a price of $3.73, about +60% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MZDAY?
Our model-based fair value for Mazda Motor Corp ADR is $5.97 (as of Sep 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $3.73.
What is the quality score of MZDAY?
Mazda Motor Corp ADR has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mazda Motor Corp ADR (MZDAY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $5.97 (as of Sep 8, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario $4.78, optimistic scenario $6.83. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mazda Motor Corp ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $5.97, about +60% upside versus a price of $3.73 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $4.78, optimistic scenario $6.83. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mazda Motor Corp ADR (MZDAY)?
Mazda Motor Corp ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥4.9T (latest available figure, as of Sep 8, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of MZDAY?
The net profit margin of Mazda Motor Corp ADR is about 0.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 0.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Mazda Motor Corp ADR pay a dividend?
Mazda Motor Corp ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.21% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 8, 2026).
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