Mazda Motor Corp (MZDAY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 22, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Mazda Motor Corp stock $5.54, price $3.40, upside +62.8%, quality 42 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.35 – $5.50 · fair‑value band $4.15 – $6.91 · the $3.40 price screens below the $5.54 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 3 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 14, 2026.
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Mazda Motor Corporation engages in the manufacture and sale of passenger cars and commercial vehicles in Japan, North America, Europe, and internationally. The company was formerly known as Toyo Kogyo Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Mazda Motor Corporation in May 1984.
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Mazda Motor Corporation was incorporated in 1920 and is headquartered in Hiroshima, Japan.
Stock analysis
Mazda Motor Corp (MZDAY) currently trades at $3.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $5.54, implying the stock looks roughly 38.6% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $6.23 per share, and 12 of the 16 models we run sit above the $3.40 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $1.04, and 4 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $4.15 (bear) to $6.91 (bull), the price of $3.40 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Mazda Motor Corp ADR reported revenue of ¥5.2T in FY2026 versus ¥3.1T in FY2022, a compound +13.7%/yr. Reported net income was ¥37.2B in FY2026, compounding −17.8%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $4.3B Mid · P/E ratio 20.0 · P/S ratio 0.14 · EPS (TTM) $0.1700 · Dividend yield 4.8% · Net margin 0.7% · Return on equity 5.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 26 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 3% fair-value upside, at 63%, MZDAY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$4.15Fair Value $5.54Bull$6.91
Price $3.40 · Upside +62.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0959 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.6%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.3% a year
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+0.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−4.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−4.5% vs −12.1%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.0% → 1%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (95 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Mazda's multi-solution decarbonization strategy with biodiesel and Chinese EV ties provides flexibility toward carbon neutrality, yet thin margins, negative free cash flow and elevated debt limit durable advantages in a commoditized industry.
Main risk: Elevated debt versus equity risks further pressure on already thin margins and negative free cash flow in Mazda's core auto manufacturing operations.
Mazda's R&D project for biodiesel refined from microalgae lipids has been selected for Japan's NEDO program, with plans to use it as factory-fill fuel for all its Japanese diesel vehicles by the early 2030s. This forms part of its multi-solution strategy for carbon neutrality that runs parallel to EV development via long-standing Chinese partnerships. Our models currently see it as undervalued. Does this broad approach to decarbonization build lasting advantages or risk spreading resources too thin compared with a tighter focus on battery vehicles?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Manufacturers · 104 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score42 · Below median
Fair Value upside+62.8% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)5.9% · Below median
Return on assets0.8% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)2.1% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)2.6% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)16.9% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)4.8% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.38× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Mazda Motor Corp ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MZDAY
Frequently asked questions
Is Mazda Motor Corp (MZDAY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 14, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $5.54 versus a price of $3.40, about +63% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MZDAY?
Our model-based fair value for Mazda Motor Corp ADR is $5.54 (as of Oct 14, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $3.40.
What is the quality score of MZDAY?
Mazda Motor Corp ADR has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mazda Motor Corp (MZDAY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $5.54 (as of Oct 14, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $4.15, optimistic scenario $6.91. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mazda Motor Corp ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $5.54, about +63% upside versus a price of $3.40 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $4.15, optimistic scenario $6.91. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mazda Motor Corp (MZDAY)?
Mazda Motor Corp ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥5.1T (latest available figure, as of Oct 14, 2026).
Does Mazda Motor Corp ADR pay a dividend?
Mazda Motor Corp ADR currently shows a dividend yield of 4.80% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 14, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Mazda Motor Corp (MZDAY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mazda Motor Corp ADR it is $5.54 per share (as of Oct 14, 2026), against a price of $3.40. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Mazda Motor Corp ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 14, 2026, MZDAY trades below its calculated fair value: price $3.40, fair value $5.54, a gap of about +63% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MZDAY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($3.40); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($5.54). For Mazda Motor Corp ADR the two are $2.14 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mazda Motor Corp ADR worth?
The market values Mazda Motor Corp ADR at about $4.3B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 14, 2026). Per share that is $3.40; our models calculate a fair value of $5.54 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MZDAY?
Our models span a range for Mazda Motor Corp ADR: cautious scenario $4.15, base $5.54, optimistic $6.91 per share (as of Oct 14, 2026, price $3.40). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MZDAY?
Mazda Motor Corp ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.0 (as of Oct 14, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $5.54 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.4, P/S 0.1, EV/EBITDA 1.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mazda Motor Corp (MZDAY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mazda Motor Corp ADR (as of Oct 14, 2026): return on equity 5.9%, debt of 0.38 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 42/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MZDAY from its 52-week high?
Mazda Motor Corp ADR trades at $3.40, about 18% below its 52-week high of $4.14 and 11% above the low of $3.06 (as of Oct 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $5.54 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mazda Motor Corp ADR?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Tesla, Inc, Toyota Motor Corporation, BYD Company, Ferrari N.V, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mazda Motor Corp ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 14, 2026: price $3.40, calculated fair value $5.54 (+63%), Quality Score 42/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MZDAY calculated?
We run Mazda Motor Corp ADR through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $5.54, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Mazda Motor Corp ADR currently trades 39 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mazda Motor Corp (MZDAY)?
The closing price on Oct 22, 2026 was $3.40. Our model-based fair value is $5.54, about +63% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mazda Motor Corp ADR right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (42/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($4.15). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
Where does the earnings growth of Mazda Motor Corp (MZDAY) come from?
Earnings per share at Mazda Motor Corp ADR grew −0.8 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.0 %, EBIT margin −6.1 %, tax rate −1.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Mazda Motor Corp ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Mazda Motor Corp (MZDAY)?
The market capitalisation of Mazda Motor Corp ADR is $4.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Mazda Motor Corp (MZDAY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mazda Motor Corp ADR is 0.14 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Mazda Motor Corp (MZDAY)?
Earnings per share at Mazda Motor Corp ADR are $0.1700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Mazda Motor Corp (MZDAY)?
The dividend yield of Mazda Motor Corp ADR is 4.8% (payout 96.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Mazda Motor Corp (MZDAY)?
The net margin of Mazda Motor Corp ADR is 0.7% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mazda Motor Corp (MZDAY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mazda Motor Corp ADR is 5.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mazda Motor Corp (MZDAY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mazda Motor Corp ADR is 4.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mazda Motor Corp (MZDAY)?
The operating margin of Mazda Motor Corp ADR is 2.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mazda Motor Corp (MZDAY)?
Revenue at Mazda Motor Corp ADR is growing +16.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Mazda Motor Corp (MZDAY)?
Earnings per share at Mazda Motor Corp ADR are growing +111% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Mazda Motor Corp (MZDAY) generate?
The free cash flow of Mazda Motor Corp ADR is −¥94.5B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Mazda Motor Corp (MZDAY) hold?
Mazda Motor Corp ADR holds more cash than debt, ¥215B net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Oct 14, 2026