Nitori Holdings (NCLTY) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $8.6B
Nitori Holdings
NCLTY · US
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 17, 2026, revised from $11.42 to $8.83 (−22.7%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +21.1% over the past month.
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- Our model range runs from $6.62 (bear) to $8.83 (bull), base $8.83. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 69/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $7.07 – $19.69 · fair‑value band $6.62 – $8.83 · the $9.00 price screens above the $8.83 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
Nitori Holdings (NCLTY) currently trades at $9.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $8.83, implying the stock looks roughly 1.9% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Nitori Holdings generated revenue of $912B at a net margin of 9.8%. Revenue declined 2.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.4%. Net debt stands at $15.1B. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $6.62 (bear case) to $8.83 (bull case); at $9.00, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 16% fair-value upside, at -2%, NCLTY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($18.65) versus Asset-Based ($2.82). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 68 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 50
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Nitori Holdings Co., Ltd. engages in sales furniture and interior products in Japan. It is involved in the advertising and public relations support; logistics; and other activities. The company engages in insurance agency and clothing related, as well as information system and digital base businesses. Nitori Holdings Co., Ltd.
Full company description
Nitori Holdings Co., Ltd. engages in sales furniture and interior products in Japan. It is involved in the advertising and public relations support; logistics; and other activities. The company engages in insurance agency and clothing related, as well as information system and digital base businesses. Nitori Holdings Co., Ltd. was founded in 1967 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Nitori Holdings reported revenue of $967B in FY2026 versus $812B in FY2022, a compound +4.5%/yr. Reported net income was $94.7B in FY2026, compounding −0.5%/yr from FY2022.
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Peer Group
Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances · 311 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midea Group 000333 | ¥82.71 | ¥107.22 | +30% |
| Gree Electric Appliances, Inc 000651 | ¥38.25 | ¥88.02 | +130% |
| Haier Smart Home Co 600690 | ¥21.46 | ¥36.04 | +68% |
| King Slide Works Co 2059 | 8,655 TWD | 1,917 TWD | -78% |
| Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co 603268 | ¥155.59 | ¥38.95 | -75% |
| SharkNinja, Inc SN | $154.53 | $89.07 | -42% |
| Hisense Home Appliances Group 000921 | ¥26.33 | ¥48.03 | +82% |
| Zhejiang Supor Co 002032 | ¥43.85 | ¥44.84 | +2% |
| COWAY Co 021240 | 96,700 KRW | 112,530 KRW | +16% |
| Ecovacs Robotics Co 603486 | ¥50.13 | ¥54.11 | +8% |
Compare Nitori Holdings with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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