nCino Inc (NCNO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 28, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of nCino Inc stock $12.16, price $22.67, upside -46.4%, quality 67 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $14.01 – $78.14 · fair‑value band $7.22 – $12.16 · the $22.67 price screens above the $12.16 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Oct 28, 2026.
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nCino, Inc., a software-as-a-service company, provides software solutions to financial institutions in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally.
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It offers solutions on the nCino Platform, including an Onboarding solution that streamlines and enhances the customer onboarding process through a digital platform for credit and non-credit onboarding, commercial account opening, and enterprise-level onboarding; and an Account Opening solution, which includes a Deposit Account Opening solution for consumers and small businesses.
The company also provides Lending, which provides a loan origination platform for commercial, consumer, small business, and mortgage lending, such as the Commercial Loan Origination System that automates the loan lifecycle; Consumer Lending solution, which offers an omnichannel solution with automated credit decisioning and integrations; and Small Business Loan Origination solution for automation and machine learning.
In addition, it offers Credit Monitoring, manages credit risks, monitors performance, and uncovers growth opportunities through a data-driven platform; Portfolio Analytics solution, which offers customizable dashboards to track loan, deposit, and application data; and Integration & Intelligence, provides integration capabilities to connect core banking systems, fintech applications, and third-party services via open APIs and a partner marketplace.
The company serves global, enterprise, regional, and community banks, credit unions, challenger banks, and independent mortgage banks, business development managers, account executives, field sales engineers, and customer success managers. nCino, Inc. was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in Wilmington, North Carolina.
Stock analysis
nCino Inc (NCNO) currently trades at $22.67, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $12.16, 46.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $6.08 per share, and 0 of the 19 models we run sit above the $22.67 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $1.37, and 19 of the 19 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $7.22 (bear) to $12.16 (bull), the price of $22.67 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
nCino Inc reported revenue of $595M in FY2026 versus $274M in FY2022, a compound +21.4%/yr. Reported net income was $5.2M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap $2.4B Mid · P/E ratio 70.8 · P/S ratio 3.92 · EPS (TTM) $0.3200 · Net margin 5.4% · Return on equity 3.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) −3.3% · Operating margin 8.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 41 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 62% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at −46%, NCNO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($0.8300 to $12.50). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear$7.22Fair Value $12.16Bull$12.16
Price $22.67 · Upside -46.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.2376 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.8%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+33.7%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−20.9% (2021) → 0.6% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+16.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +13.4% a year for the price and +5.1% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Low ROE and net margins signal weak profitability despite solid software gross margins and positive cash flow.
Main risk: High delivery costs combined with fintech rivals threaten to maintain pressure on nCino's margins.
nCino is folding AI tools for eligibility checks, automated tasks and workflow guidance straight into its mortgage and commercial platforms via the new Loan Officer Productivity Suite and Parlay integration. This setup could raise contract values by locking more decisioning inside the core system, yet high delivery costs and fintech rivals may keep margins under pressure. Will the AI features mainly expand usage among current banks or simply add to the expense of rolling them out?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Application · 639 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score67 · Above median
Fair Value upside−46.4% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)3.9% · Below median
Return on assets0.6% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)10.1% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)8.5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)8.2% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.20× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)70.8× · Priciest 25%
P/B2.26× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)7.17× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow54.0× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA51.1× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 31
FUTURE (revenue growth)41· sector 40
PAST (return on equity)15· sector 18
HEALTH (low debt)90· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 30
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "nCino Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NCNO
Frequently asked questions
Is nCino Inc (NCNO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $12.16 versus a price of $22.67, about −46% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NCNO?
Our model-based fair value for nCino Inc is $12.16 (as of Oct 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $22.67.
What is the quality score of NCNO?
nCino Inc has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for nCino Inc (NCNO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $12.16 (as of Oct 28, 2026) from 19 valuation models. Cautious scenario $7.22, optimistic scenario $12.16. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the nCino Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $12.16, about −46% upside versus a price of $22.67 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $7.22, optimistic scenario $12.16. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of nCino Inc (NCNO)?
nCino Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $622M (latest available figure, as of Oct 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into nCino Inc (NCNO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, nCino Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +16.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +23.8 % per year. As of Oct 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NCNO use?
Our models discount nCino Inc at 9.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.81, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For nCino Inc that is +16.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has nCino Inc (NCNO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at nCino Inc grew +23.8 % a year. The price currently implies +16.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of nCino Inc (NCNO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +10.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into nCino Inc (+16.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of nCino Inc (NCNO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.47 %: that much free cash flow nCino Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of nCino Inc (NCNO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For nCino Inc it is $12.16 per share (as of Oct 28, 2026), against a price of $22.67. It is the blended result of 19 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is nCino Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 28, 2026, NCNO trades above its calculated fair value: price $22.67, fair value $12.16, a gap of about −46% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NCNO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($22.67); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($12.16). For nCino Inc the two are $10.51 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is nCino Inc worth?
The market values nCino Inc at about $2.4B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 28, 2026). Per share that is $22.67; our models calculate a fair value of $12.16 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NCNO?
Our models span a range for nCino Inc: cautious scenario $7.22, base $12.16, optimistic $12.16 per share (as of Oct 28, 2026, price $22.67). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NCNO?
nCino Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 70.8 (as of Oct 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $12.16 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.3, P/S 7.2, EV/EBITDA 51.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of nCino Inc (NCNO)?
Balance-sheet figures for nCino Inc (as of Oct 28, 2026): return on equity 3.9%, debt of 0.20 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NCNO from its 52-week high?
nCino Inc trades at $22.67, about 16% below its 52-week high of $26.84 and 62% above the low of $14.01 (as of Oct 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $12.16 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to nCino Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value SAP SE, Shopify Inc, Salesforce, Inc, ServiceNow, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is nCino Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 28, 2026: price $22.67, calculated fair value $12.16 (−46%), Quality Score 67/100, from 19 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NCNO calculated?
We run nCino Inc through 19 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $12.16, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. nCino Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of nCino Inc (NCNO)?
The closing price on Oct 28, 2026 was $22.67. Our model-based fair value is $12.16, about −46% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with nCino Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($12.16). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (67/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of nCino Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of nCino Inc (NCNO)?
The market capitalisation of nCino Inc is $2.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of nCino Inc (NCNO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of nCino Inc is 3.92 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of nCino Inc (NCNO)?
Earnings per share at nCino Inc are $0.3200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 70.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of nCino Inc (NCNO)?
The net margin of nCino Inc is 5.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of nCino Inc (NCNO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of nCino Inc is 3.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of nCino Inc (NCNO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of nCino Inc is −3.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of nCino Inc (NCNO)?
The operating margin of nCino Inc is 8.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at nCino Inc (NCNO)?
Revenue at nCino Inc is growing +8.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +13.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at nCino Inc (NCNO)?
Earnings per share at nCino Inc are growing +148% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does nCino Inc (NCNO) carry?
The net debt of nCino Inc is $190M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 2.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Oct 28, 2026