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nCino Inc (NCNO) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what nCino Inc is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Technology · US · ISIN US63947X1019

NI nCino Inc logo Thin data Sep 13, 2026

nCino Inc

NCNO · US

Stretched ValuationQuality growthStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value $11.20 · Strongly overvalued (−47%)
!Quality 62/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +23.8 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 2.2% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (4/13)
!Narrow moat 41/100
!Insider activity 40/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 7 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$78.14 $14.01 Fair Value $11.20 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $14.01 – $78.14 · fair‑value band $10.02 – $11.20 · the $21.25 price screens above the $11.20 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.

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Company profile

nCino, Inc., a software-as-a-service company, provides software solutions to financial institutions in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally.

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nCino, Inc., a software-as-a-service company, provides software solutions to financial institutions in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It offers solutions on the nCino Platform, including an Onboarding solution that streamlines and enhances the customer onboarding process through a digital platform for credit and non-credit onboarding, commercial account opening, and enterprise-level onboarding; and an Account Opening solution, which includes a Deposit Account Opening solution for consumers and small businesses. The company also provides Lending, which provides a loan origination platform for commercial, consumer, small business, and mortgage lending, such as the Commercial Loan Origination System that automates the loan lifecycle; Consumer Lending solution, which offers an omnichannel solution with automated credit decisioning and integrations; and Small Business Loan Origination solution for automation and machine learning. In addition, it offers Credit Monitoring, manages credit risks, monitors performance, and uncovers growth opportunities through a data-driven platform; Portfolio Analytics solution, which offers customizable dashboards to track loan, deposit, and application data; and Integration & Intelligence, provides integration capabilities to connect core banking systems, fintech applications, and third-party services via open APIs and a partner marketplace. The company serves global, enterprise, regional, and community banks, credit unions, challenger banks, and independent mortgage banks, business development managers, account executives, field sales engineers, and customer success managers. nCino, Inc. was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in Wilmington, North Carolina.

Stock analysis

nCino Inc (NCNO) currently trades at $21.25, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.20, implying the stock looks roughly 89.7% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $7.97 per share, and 0 of the 20 models we run sit above the $21.25 price.

Bear case: the Growth Earnings group reads lowest at $1.62, and 20 of the 20 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $10.02 (bear) to $11.20 (bull), the price of $21.25 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

nCino Inc reported revenue of $595M in FY2026 versus $274M in FY2022, a compound +21.4%/yr. Reported net income was $5.2M in FY2026.

Key figures

Market cap $2.4B · P/E ratio 177.1 · P/S ratio 1.54 · EPS (TTM) $0.1200 · Net margin 0.9% · Return on equity 1.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) −3.3% · Operating margin 13.3%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.

The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 54% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at −47%, NCNO screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($0.8000 to $14.81). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear $10.02 Fair Value $11.20 Bull $11.20
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0743 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $9.12 $13.83 $27.93 76
Growth DCF $8.47 $14.81 $26.47 75
5Y Revenue Exit $2.32 $3.19 $4.74 72
All 20 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $9.12 $13.83 $27.93 76
Owner Earnings $3.50 $8.49 $17.73 71
5Y Revenue Exit $2.32 $3.19 $4.74 72
5Y EBITDA Exit $5.90 $10.63 $19.55 72
5Y P/E Exit $2.76 $4.83 $7.19 70
10Y Revenue Exit $4.52 $7.15 $8.26 68
10Y EBITDA Exit $6.88 $13.81 $26.07 65
10Y P/E Exit $4.82 $7.97 $12.60 62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $0.3200 $2.24 $3.15 63
Lynch FV $0.7600 $1.09 $1.41 61
PEG = 1.0 $0.7600 $1.09 $1.41 57
Multiples
P/E Multiple $0.9900 $1.32 $1.65 63
P/S Multiple $0.6000 $0.8000 $1.00 58
P/B Multiple $0.6000 $0.8000 $1.00 55
EV/EBITDA $4.52 $6.41 $8.30 67
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $4.82 $6.46 $9.64 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $8.47 $14.81 $26.47 75
Rev-Margin DCF $2.32 $3.83 $6.05 71
Economic Profit
Residual Income $6.09 $5.44 $3.48 71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $1.13 $1.62 $2.11 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 62/100

Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 49

Profitability 22
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 69
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 79
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 48
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 86
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 56
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 62
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 19
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 80
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.8%
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+33.7%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−20.9% (2021) → 0.6% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+15.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Forecast 2027 (sales)+8.4%
Forecast 2028 (sales)+8.9%
Projected 2029 (sales)+8.0%
Projected 2030 (sales)+7.2%
Projected 2031 (sales)+6.3%

NCNO screens 90% overvalued. Compare with SAP SE →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Application · 696 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 60 · Above median
Fair Value upside −93% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 2% · Below median
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 13% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 11% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.20× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 177.1× · Priciest 25%
P/B 1.54× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 2.66× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 19.6× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 24.4× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 24
FUTURE (revenue growth)53 · sector 36
PAST (return on equity)7 · sector 11
HEALTH (low debt)90 · sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 28

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
SAP SE SAP €177.26 €156.00 −12%
Shopify Inc SHOP C$178.41 C$112.02 −37%
Uber Technologies, Inc UBER $71.67 $102.51 +43%
Salesforce, Inc CRM $247.72 $344.41 +39%
ServiceNow, Inc NOW $132.53 $145.78 +10%
Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS $289.37 $224.24 −23%
Snowflake Inc SNOW $328.99 $74.65 −77%
Datadog, Inc DDOG $221.21 $32.92 −85%
Adobe Inc ADBE $252.23 $471.62 +87%
Automatic Data Processing, Inc ADP $268.26 $177.51 −34%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "nCino Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NCNO

Frequently asked questions

Is nCino Inc (NCNO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $11.20 versus a price of $21.25, about −47% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NCNO?
Our model-based fair value for nCino Inc is $11.20 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $21.25.
What is the quality score of NCNO?
nCino Inc has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for nCino Inc (NCNO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $11.20 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 20 valuation models. Cautious scenario $10.02, optimistic scenario $11.20. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the nCino Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $11.20, about −47% upside versus a price of $21.25 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $10.02, optimistic scenario $11.20. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of nCino Inc (NCNO)?
nCino Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $610M (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into nCino Inc (NCNO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, nCino Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +15.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +23.8 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NCNO use?
Our models discount nCino Inc at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.69, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For nCino Inc that is +15.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has nCino Inc (NCNO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at nCino Inc grew +23.8 % a year. The price currently implies +15.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of nCino Inc (NCNO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into nCino Inc (+15.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of nCino Inc (NCNO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.40 %: that much free cash flow nCino Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of nCino Inc (NCNO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For nCino Inc it is $11.20 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of $21.25. It is the blended result of 20 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is nCino Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, NCNO trades above its calculated fair value: price $21.25, fair value $11.20, a gap of about −47% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NCNO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($21.25); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($11.20). For nCino Inc the two are $10.05 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is nCino Inc worth?
The market values nCino Inc at about $2.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is $21.25; our models calculate a fair value of $11.20 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NCNO?
Our models span a range for nCino Inc: cautious scenario $10.02, base $11.20, optimistic $11.20 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price $21.25). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NCNO?
nCino Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 177.1 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $11.20 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.5, P/S 2.7, EV/EBITDA 24.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of nCino Inc (NCNO)?
Balance-sheet figures for nCino Inc (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 1.8%, debt of 0.20 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NCNO from its 52-week high?
nCino Inc trades at $21.25, about 37% below its 52-week high of $33.92 and 54% above the low of $13.80 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $11.20 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to nCino Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value SAP SE, Shopify Inc, Uber Technologies, Inc, Salesforce, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is nCino Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price $21.25, calculated fair value $11.20 (−47%), Quality Score 62/100, from 20 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NCNO calculated?
We run nCino Inc through 20 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $11.20, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. nCino Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with nCino Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($11.20). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. The models converge in a tight band ($10.02 to $11.20), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.

Key figures of nCino Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of nCino Inc (NCNO)?
The market capitalisation of nCino Inc is $2.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of nCino Inc (NCNO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of nCino Inc is 1.54 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of nCino Inc (NCNO)?
Earnings per share at nCino Inc are $0.1200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 177.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of nCino Inc (NCNO)?
The net margin of nCino Inc is 0.9% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of nCino Inc (NCNO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of nCino Inc is 1.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of nCino Inc (NCNO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of nCino Inc is −3.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of nCino Inc (NCNO)?
The operating margin of nCino Inc is 13.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at nCino Inc (NCNO)?
Revenue at nCino Inc is growing +10.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +13.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at nCino Inc (NCNO)?
Earnings per share at nCino Inc are growing +148% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does nCino Inc (NCNO) carry?
The net debt of nCino Inc is $190M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 2.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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