Nel ASA (NEL) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · NO · Market cap 4.1B NOK (≈ $435M) · ISIN NO0010081235
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price −1.4% over the past month.
Below-average quality, trading 51% below our fair value.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (21/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (kr 2.32). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range (kr 2.32 to kr 6.03) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 1.96 – kr 19.79 · fair‑value band kr 2.32 – kr 6.03 · the kr 2.11 price screens below the kr 4.28 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
Analysis
Nel ASA (NEL) currently trades at kr 2.11, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 4.28, implying the stock looks roughly 103.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 21/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: low), always confirm before acting.
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at 956M NOK. Revenue declined 4.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -27.9%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 2.9B NOK. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026
Our scenario range runs from kr 2.32 (bear case) to kr 6.03 (bull case); at kr 2.11, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 47% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -52% fair-value upside, at 103%, NEL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (kr 5.15) versus Asset-Based (kr 1.43). Highest evidence: DDM Multi-Stage (65).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 26 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 17
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Nel ASA, a hydrogen company, provides solutions to produce, store, and distribute hydrogen from renewable energy in Norway and internationally. It operates through Nel Alkaline Electrolyser and Nel PEM Electrolyser segments. The Nel Alkaline Electrolyser segment supplies hydrogen production equipment based on alkaline water electrolysis technology.
Full company description
Nel ASA, a hydrogen company, provides solutions to produce, store, and distribute hydrogen from renewable energy in Norway and internationally. It operates through Nel Alkaline Electrolyser and Nel PEM Electrolyser segments. The Nel Alkaline Electrolyser segment supplies hydrogen production equipment based on alkaline water electrolysis technology. The Nel PEM Electrolyser segment supplies hydrogen production equipment based on proton exchange membrane (PEM) water electrolysis technology. The company was formerly known as DiaGenic ASA and changed its name to Nel ASA in October 2014. Nel ASA was founded in 1927 and is headquartered in Oslo, Norway.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Nel ASA reported revenue of kr 963M in FY2025 versus kr 753M in FY2021, a compound +6.3%/yr. Reported net income was −kr 1.3B in FY2025.
Watch NEL: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- A Moment of Truth, Bankruptcy Fears, or Comeback? Plug Power & Nel ASA Fight for Survival! Will Lahontan Gold See a Technical Breakout?
- NEL ASA (NLLSF) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Navigating Challenges with Strategic Innovations
- Why The Narrative Around Nel (OB:NEL) Is Shifting As Analysts Rework Fair Value Assumptions
- Nel ASA: Launches next-generation pressurized alkaline platform, redefining simplicity and cost efficiency in renewable hydrogen production
Peer Group
Specialty Industrial Machinery · 808 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| GE Vernova Inc GEV | $953.09 | $131.95 | -86% |
| SIE SIE | €289.85 | €139.77 | -52% |
| Eaton Corporation ETN | $402.78 | $168.65 | -58% |
| Parker-Hannifin Corporation PH | $995.02 | $398.69 | -60% |
| Atlas Copco AB ATCOA | kr 206.60 | kr 112.59 | -46% |
| Cummins Inc CMI | $578.14 | $348.94 | -40% |
| Illinois Tool Works Inc ITW | $281.67 | $145.84 | -48% |
| Emerson Electric Co EMR | $155.18 | $58.44 | -62% |
| AMETEK, Inc AME | $236.25 | $125.80 | -47% |
| Rockwell Automation, Inc ROK | $431.75 | $125.76 | -71% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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