Nel ASA (NEL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 14, 2026: fair value of Nel ASA NOK 4.08, price NOK 2.17, upside +88.5%, quality 31 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 1.96 – kr 18.63 · fair‑value band kr 2.41 – kr 5.34 · the kr 2.17 price screens below the kr 4.08 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 9, 2026.
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Nel ASA, a hydrogen company, provides solutions to produce, store, and distribute hydrogen from renewable energy in Norway and internationally. It operates through Nel Alkaline Electrolyser and Nel PEM Electrolyser segments.
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The Nel Alkaline Electrolyser segment supplies hydrogen production equipment based on alkaline water electrolysis technology. The Nel PEM Electrolyser segment supplies hydrogen production equipment based on proton exchange membrane (PEM) water electrolysis technology.
The company was formerly known as DiaGenic ASA and changed its name to Nel ASA in October 2014. Nel ASA was founded in 1927 and is headquartered in Oslo, Norway.
Stock analysis
Nel ASA (NEL) currently trades at kr 2.17, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 4.08, implying the stock looks roughly 46.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of kr 4.35 per share, and 2 of the 3 models we run sit above the kr 2.17 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at kr 1.43, and 1 of the 3 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: kr 2.41 (bear) to kr 5.34 (bull), the price of kr 2.17 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 31/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Nel ASA reported revenue of 963M NOK in FY2025 versus 753M NOK in FY2021, a compound +6.3%/yr. Reported net income was −1.3B NOK in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 4.0B NOK (≈ $419M) · P/S ratio 4.07 · EPS (TTM) kr −0.7100 · Net margin −131% · Return on equity −30.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −12.6% · Operating margin −134% · Revenue (TTM) 935M NOK.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 10 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 44% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −48% fair-value upside, at 88%, NEL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bearkr 2.41Fair Value kr 4.08Bullkr 5.34
Price kr 2.17 · Upside +88.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.16/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−30.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +27.0% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+57.8%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−55.8% (2020) → −141.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (80 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 803 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score31 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+88.5% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−25.5% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−137.6% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)−133.8% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−11.8% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)16.4% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Nel ASA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NEL
Frequently asked questions
Is Nel ASA (NEL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 4.08 versus a price of kr 2.17, about +88% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of NEL?
Our model-based fair value for Nel ASA is kr 4.08 (as of Oct 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 2.17.
What is the quality score of NEL?
Nel ASA has a Quality Score of 31/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nel ASA (NEL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 4.08 (as of Oct 9, 2026) from 3 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 2.41, optimistic scenario kr 5.34. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nel ASA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 4.08, about +88% upside versus a price of kr 2.17 (undervalued). Cautious scenario kr 2.41, optimistic scenario kr 5.34. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Nel ASA (NEL)?
Nel ASA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 935M NOK (latest available figure, as of Oct 9, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Nel ASA (NEL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nel ASA it is kr 4.08 per share (as of Oct 9, 2026), against a price of kr 2.17. It is the blended result of 3 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Nel ASA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 9, 2026, NEL trades below its calculated fair value: price kr 2.17, fair value kr 4.08, a gap of about +88% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NEL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 2.17); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 4.08). For Nel ASA the two are kr 1.92 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nel ASA worth?
The market values Nel ASA at about 4.0B NOK (market capitalisation, as of Oct 9, 2026). Per share that is kr 2.17; our models calculate a fair value of kr 4.08 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NEL?
Our models span a range for Nel ASA: cautious scenario kr 2.41, base kr 4.08, optimistic kr 5.34 per share (as of Oct 9, 2026, price kr 2.17). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of NEL?
The PEG ratio of Nel ASA is 4.46 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 9, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Nel ASA (NEL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Nel ASA (as of Oct 9, 2026): return on equity −30.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 31/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NEL from its 52-week high?
Nel ASA trades at kr 2.17, about 44% below its 52-week high of kr 3.85 and 10% above the low of kr 1.96 (as of Oct 14, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 4.08 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Nel ASA?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value GE Vernova Inc, SIE, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nel ASA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 9, 2026: price kr 2.17, calculated fair value kr 4.08 (+88%), Quality Score 31/100, from 3 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NEL calculated?
We run Nel ASA through 3 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 4.08, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Nel ASA currently trades 47 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Nel ASA (NEL)?
The closing price on Oct 14, 2026 was kr 2.17. Our model-based fair value is kr 4.08, about +88% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Nel ASA right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (31/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (kr 2.41). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (kr 2.41 to kr 5.34) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Nel ASA
How large is the market capitalisation of Nel ASA (NEL)?
The market capitalisation of Nel ASA is 4.0B NOK (≈ $419M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Nel ASA (NEL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Nel ASA is 4.07 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Nel ASA (NEL)?
Earnings per share at Nel ASA are kr −0.7100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Nel ASA (NEL)?
The net margin of Nel ASA is −131% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Nel ASA (NEL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Nel ASA is −30.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Nel ASA (NEL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Nel ASA is −12.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Nel ASA (NEL)?
The operating margin of Nel ASA is −134% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Nel ASA (NEL)?
Revenue at Nel ASA is growing −11.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Nel ASA (NEL) generate?
The free cash flow of Nel ASA is −543M NOK (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Nel ASA (NEL) hold?
Nel ASA holds more cash than debt, 2.9B NOK net (fiscal year 2022). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Oct 9, 2026