PT Esta Indonesia Tbk (NEST) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · ID · Market cap 2.6T IDR
Fair value as of: Jul 11, 2026
From 13 valuation models · updated 29 days ago
Share price +14.8% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 88% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (109.95 IDR). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (2 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
How to read this chart
24‑month range 242.00 IDR – 775.00 IDR · fair‑value band 71.13 IDR – 109.95 IDR · the 735.00 IDR price screens above the 84.58 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
Analysis
PT Esta Indonesia Tbk (NEST) currently trades at 735.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 84.58 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 88.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, PT Esta Indonesia Tbk generated revenue of 361B IDR at a net margin of 6.4%. Revenue declined 45.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 10.1B IDR. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 71.13 IDR (bear case) to 109.95 IDR (bull case); at 735.00 IDR, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 199% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 102% fair-value upside, at -88%, NEST screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 13 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (88.64 IDR) versus Earnings-Based (11.23 IDR). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 11, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 68
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
PT Esta Indonesia Tbk engages in the breeding and cultivation of swiftlets in Indonesia. The company offers bird's nest, as well as involved in the wholesale trading of agricultural products and other live stocks. The company was founded in 2000 and is based in Semarang, Indonesia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
PT Esta Indonesia Tbk reported revenue of 361B IDR in FY2025 versus 453B IDR in FY2021, a compound −5.5%/yr. Reported net income was 22.9B IDR in FY2025, compounding +25.1%/yr from FY2021.
NEST screens 88% overvalued. Compare with Muyuan Foods Group →
Peer Group
Farm Products · 288 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Farm Products median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Farm Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 11, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Muyuan Foods Group 002714 | ¥40.90 | ¥48.19 | +18% |
| Wens Foodstuff Group 300498 | ¥14.51 | ¥12.08 | -17% |
| Mowi ASA MOWI | kr 188.40 | kr 262.59 | +39% |
| PT Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk, CPIN | 3,120 IDR | 7,076 IDR | +127% |
| Charoen Pokphand Foods Public Company CPF | 22.00 THB | 55.71 THB | +153% |
| PT Triputra Agro Persada Tbk TAPG | 1,540 IDR | 3,105 IDR | +102% |
| PT FAP Agri Tbk FAPA | 7,300 IDR | 7,463 IDR | +2% |
| PT Japfa Comfeed Indonesia Tbk JPFA | 2,070 IDR | 7,231 IDR | +249% |
| Thaifoods Group TFGR | 10.60 THB | 23.53 THB | +122% |
| PT Jhonlin Agro Raya Tbk JARR | 1,845 IDR | 610.80 IDR | -67% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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