NFI Group Inc (NFI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of NFI Group Inc C$18.70, price C$23.65, upside -20.9%, quality 30 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$7.05 – C$30.58 · fair‑value band C$9.43 – C$32.78 · the C$23.65 price screens above the C$18.70 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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NFI Group Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells buses in North America, the United Kingdom, rest of Europe, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through Manufacturing Operations and Aftermarket Operations segments.
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NFI Group Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells buses in North America, the United Kingdom, rest of Europe, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through Manufacturing Operations and Aftermarket Operations segments. The Manufacturing Operations segment designs, manufactures, services, and supports transit buses, motor coaches, medium-duty, and cutaway buses; the installation of infrastructure for electric vehicles; and the third-party sales of fiberglass reinforced polymer components. The Aftermarket Operations segment engages in the sale of aftermarket parts and services for transit buses, coaches, and medium-duty/cutaway buses. In addition, the company offers heavy-duty transit buses under the New Flyer brand name; single and double-deck buses under the and Alexander Dennis brand; motor coaches under he MCI brand name; and low-floor cutaway, and medium-duty buses under the ARBOC brand, as well as sells aftermarket parts under the NFI Parts brand. It also engages in infrastructure solutions, connected vehicles and diagnostics, and aftermarket, warranty, and service. NFI Group Inc. was founded in 1895 and is headquartered in Winnipeg, Canada.
Stock analysis
NFI Group Inc (NFI) currently trades at C$23.65, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$18.70, implying the stock looks roughly 26.5% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of C$9.04 per share, and 2 of the 9 models we run sit above the C$23.65 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at C$3.29, and 7 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: C$9.43 (bear) to C$32.78 (bull), the price of C$23.65 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 30/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
NFI Group Inc reported revenue of $3.7B in FY2025 versus $2.3B in FY2021, a compound +11.9%/yr. Reported net income was −$145M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap C$2.8B (≈ $2.0B) · P/S ratio 0.84 · EPS (TTM) C$−1.48 · Net margin −3.9% · Return on equity −19.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.2% · Operating margin 6.3% · Revenue (TTM) $3.6B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 84% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −4% fair-value upside, at −21%, NFI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear C$9.43Fair Value C$18.70Bull C$32.78
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.50/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+17.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.1% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.4%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−1.3% (2020) → 0.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+7.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +4.8% a year for the price and +6.1% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Manufacturers · 116 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score30 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−21% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets0% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.90× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper
P/B3.41× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "NFI Group Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NFI
Frequently asked questions
Is NFI Group Inc (NFI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$18.70 versus a price of C$23.65, about −21% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NFI?
Our model-based fair value for NFI Group Inc is C$18.70 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$23.65.
What is the quality score of NFI?
NFI Group Inc has a Quality Score of 30/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for NFI Group Inc (NFI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$18.70 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$9.43, optimistic scenario C$32.78. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the NFI Group Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$18.70, about −21% upside versus a price of C$23.65 (overvalued). Cautious scenario C$9.43, optimistic scenario C$32.78. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of NFI Group Inc (NFI)?
NFI Group Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.6B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into NFI Group Inc (NFI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, NFI Group Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +7.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.7 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NFI use?
Our models discount NFI Group Inc at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.57, country premium for Canada. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For NFI Group Inc that is +7.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has NFI Group Inc (NFI) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at NFI Group Inc grew +8.7 % a year. The price currently implies +7.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of NFI Group Inc (NFI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into NFI Group Inc (+7.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of NFI Group Inc (NFI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.13 %: that much free cash flow NFI Group Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of NFI Group Inc (NFI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For NFI Group Inc it is C$18.70 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of C$23.65. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is NFI Group Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, NFI trades above its calculated fair value: price C$23.65, fair value C$18.70, a gap of about −21% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NFI?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$23.65); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$18.70). For NFI Group Inc the two are C$4.95 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is NFI Group Inc worth?
The market values NFI Group Inc at about C$2.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is C$23.65; our models calculate a fair value of C$18.70 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NFI?
Our models span a range for NFI Group Inc: cautious scenario C$9.43, base C$18.70, optimistic C$32.78 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price C$23.65). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of NFI?
The PEG ratio of NFI Group Inc is 0.55 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of NFI Group Inc (NFI)?
Balance-sheet figures for NFI Group Inc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −19.1%, debt of 1.90 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 30/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NFI from its 52-week high?
NFI Group Inc trades at C$23.65, about 9% below its 52-week high of C$26.02 and 84% above the low of C$12.88 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$18.70 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to NFI Group Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Tesla, Inc, Toyota Motor Corporation, BYD Company, Hyundai Motor Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is NFI Group Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price C$23.65, calculated fair value C$18.70 (−21%), Quality Score 30/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NFI calculated?
We run NFI Group Inc through 9 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$18.70, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. NFI Group Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of NFI Group Inc (NFI)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was C$23.65. Our model-based fair value is C$18.70, about −21% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with NFI Group Inc right now?
Weak quality (30/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide (C$9.43 to C$32.78). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Key figures of NFI Group Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of NFI Group Inc (NFI)?
The market capitalisation of NFI Group Inc is C$2.8B (≈ $2.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of NFI Group Inc (NFI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of NFI Group Inc is 0.84 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of NFI Group Inc (NFI)?
Earnings per share at NFI Group Inc are C$−1.48. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of NFI Group Inc (NFI)?
The net margin of NFI Group Inc is −3.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of NFI Group Inc (NFI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of NFI Group Inc is −19.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of NFI Group Inc (NFI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of NFI Group Inc is −1.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of NFI Group Inc (NFI)?
The operating margin of NFI Group Inc is 6.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at NFI Group Inc (NFI)?
Revenue at NFI Group Inc is growing +0.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +21.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at NFI Group Inc (NFI)?
Earnings per share at NFI Group Inc are growing +807% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does NFI Group Inc (NFI) carry?
The net debt of NFI Group Inc is $1.2B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 8.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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