NFI Group (NFI) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · CA · Market cap C$3.0B

Below-average quality, and screening another 46% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$13.38). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Weak quality (30/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
• The model range is unusually wide (C$2.68 to C$13.38). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range C$7.05 – C$30.58 · fair‑value band C$2.68 – C$13.38 · the C$24.98 price screens above the C$13.38 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.

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Analysis

NFI Group (NFI) currently trades at C$24.98, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$13.38, implying the stock looks roughly 46.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 30/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, NFI Group generated revenue of C$3.6B at a net margin of -3.4%. Revenue grew 0.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -19.1%. Net debt stands at C$1.2B. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026

Our scenario range runs from C$2.68 (bear case) to C$13.38 (bull case); at C$24.98, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 100% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 25% fair-value upside, at -46%, NFI screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Growth DCF (C$163.12) versus Multiples (C$6.69). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

NFI Group Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells buses in North America, the United Kingdom, rest of Europe, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through Manufacturing Operations and Aftermarket Operations segments.

Full company description

NFI Group Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells buses in North America, the United Kingdom, rest of Europe, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through Manufacturing Operations and Aftermarket Operations segments. The Manufacturing Operations segment designs, manufactures, services, and supports transit buses, motor coaches, medium-duty, and cutaway buses; the installation of infrastructure for electric vehicles; and the third-party sales of fiberglass reinforced polymer components. The Aftermarket Operations segment engages in the sale of aftermarket parts and services for transit buses, coaches, and medium-duty/cutaway buses. In addition, the company offers heavy-duty transit buses under the New Flyer brand name; single and double-deck buses under the and Alexander Dennis brand; motor coaches under he MCI brand name; and low-floor cutaway, and medium-duty buses under the ARBOC brand, as well as sells aftermarket parts under the NFI Parts brand. It also engages in infrastructure solutions, connected vehicles and diagnostics, and aftermarket, warranty, and service. NFI Group Inc. was founded in 1895 and is headquartered in Winnipeg, Canada.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

NFI Group reported revenue of C$3.7B in FY2025 versus C$2.3B in FY2021, a compound +11.9%/yr. Reported net income was −C$145M in FY2025.

NFI screens 46% overvalued. Compare with Toyota Motor Corporation →

Peer Group

Auto Manufacturers · 119 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.