Naphtha (NFTA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Naphtha ILS 41.08, price ILS 24.18, upside +69.9%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 10.14 ILA – 28.89 ILA · fair‑value band 28.76 ILA – 53.41 ILA · the 24.18 ILA price screens below the 41.08 ILA fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Naphtha Israel Petroleum Corp. Ltd. engages in the exploration, production, and sale of oil and gas in Israel, the Middle East, the United States, and Europe. It is also involved in the rental of real estate properties; operation of hotels; and provision of management services.
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Naphtha Israel Petroleum Corp. Ltd. engages in the exploration, production, and sale of oil and gas in Israel, the Middle East, the United States, and Europe. It is also involved in the rental of real estate properties; operation of hotels; and provision of management services. In addition, it provides operator services for oil and gas assets; and ancillary services. The company serves private electricity producers, industrial customers, and natural gas marketing companies. The company was incorporated in 1956 and is based in Petah Tikva, Israel. Naphtha Israel Petroleum Corp. Ltd. is a subsidiary of J.O.E.L. Jerusalem Oil Exploration Ltd.
Stock analysis
Naphtha (NFTA) currently trades at 24.18 ILA, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 41.08 ILA, implying the stock looks roughly 41.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 89.96 ILA per share, and 23 of the 26 models we run sit above the 24.18 ILA price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 9.58 ILA, and 3 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 28.76 ILA (bear) to 53.41 ILA (bull), the price of 24.18 ILA sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Naphtha reported revenue of 2.5B ILS in FY2025 versus 1.4B ILS in FY2021, a compound +16.0%/yr. Reported net income was 223M ILS in FY2025, compounding −14.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 2.3B ILA · P/E ratio 10.8 · P/S ratio 0.98 · EPS (TTM) 2.23 ILA · Dividend yield 8.7% · Net margin 9.0% · Return on equity 16.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 14.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 70%, NFTA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 28.76 ILAFair Value 41.08 ILABull 53.41 ILA
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.0900 ILS per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.76/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−7.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.0% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+1.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−7.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)8.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−7% vs 6%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.70% → 28%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−19.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Israel: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −21.3% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 306 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+71% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)16% · Top 25%
Return on assets7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)10% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)30% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−21% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)8.7% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.93× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Naphtha Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NFTA
Frequently asked questions
Is Naphtha (NFTA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 41.08 ILA versus a price of 24.18 ILA, about +70% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of NFTA?
Our model-based fair value for Naphtha is 41.08 ILA (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 24.18 ILA.
What is the quality score of NFTA?
Naphtha has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Naphtha (NFTA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 41.08 ILA (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 28.76 ILA, optimistic scenario 53.41 ILA. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Naphtha stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 41.08 ILA, about +70% upside versus a price of 24.18 ILA (undervalued). Cautious scenario 28.76 ILA, optimistic scenario 53.41 ILA. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Naphtha (NFTA)?
Naphtha reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.1B ILS (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Naphtha pay a dividend?
Naphtha currently shows a dividend yield of about 8.71% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Naphtha (NFTA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Naphtha would have to grow free cash flow by -19.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.5 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NFTA use?
Our models discount Naphtha at 10.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.43, country premium for Israel. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Naphtha that is -19.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Naphtha (NFTA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Naphtha grew +8.5 % a year. The price currently implies -19.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Naphtha (NFTA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Naphtha (-19.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Naphtha (NFTA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 33.06 %: that much free cash flow Naphtha produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Naphtha (NFTA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Naphtha it is 41.08 ILA per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of 24.18 ILA. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Naphtha stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, NFTA trades below its calculated fair value: price 24.18 ILA, fair value 41.08 ILA, a gap of about +70% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NFTA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (24.18 ILA); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (41.08 ILA). For Naphtha the two are 16.90 ILA per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Naphtha worth?
The market values Naphtha at about 2.3B ILA (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is 24.18 ILA; our models calculate a fair value of 41.08 ILA per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NFTA?
Our models span a range for Naphtha: cautious scenario 28.76 ILA, base 41.08 ILA, optimistic 53.41 ILA per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price 24.18 ILA). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NFTA?
Naphtha trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.8 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 41.08 ILA is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.6, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 1.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Naphtha (NFTA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Naphtha (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 16.4%, debt of 0.93 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NFTA from its 52-week high?
Naphtha trades at 24.18 ILA, about 16% below its 52-week high of 28.89 ILA and 10% above the low of 22.05 ILA (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 41.08 ILA is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Naphtha?
From the same area (Energy) we also value CNOOC Limited, ConocoPhillips explores for,, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Naphtha stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price 24.18 ILA, calculated fair value 41.08 ILA (+70%), Quality Score 63/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NFTA calculated?
We run Naphtha through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 41.08 ILA, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Naphtha currently trades 70 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Naphtha (NFTA)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 24.18 ILA. Our model-based fair value is 41.08 ILA, about +70% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Naphtha right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (28.76 ILA). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (63/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (28.76 ILA to 53.41 ILA) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Naphtha (NFTA) come from?
Earnings per share at Naphtha grew +6.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.2 %, EBIT margin +13.9 %, tax rate −2.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −7.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Naphtha
How large is the market capitalisation of Naphtha (NFTA)?
The market capitalisation of Naphtha is 2.3B ILA. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Naphtha (NFTA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Naphtha is 0.98 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Naphtha (NFTA)?
Earnings per share at Naphtha are 2.23 ILA (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Naphtha (NFTA)?
The dividend yield of Naphtha is 8.7% (payout 94.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Naphtha (NFTA)?
The net margin of Naphtha is 9.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Naphtha (NFTA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Naphtha is 16.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Naphtha (NFTA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Naphtha is 14.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Naphtha (NFTA)?
The operating margin of Naphtha is 29.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Naphtha (NFTA)?
Revenue at Naphtha is growing −21.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Naphtha (NFTA)?
Earnings per share at Naphtha are growing −28.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Naphtha (NFTA) carry?
The net debt of Naphtha is 930M ILA (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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