NGK Spark Plug Co Ltd (NGKSY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 22, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of NGK Spark Plug Co Ltd stock $5.89, price $6.64, upside -11.2%, quality 66 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 20, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.6313 – $25.18 · fair‑value band $3.46 – $8.59 · the $6.64 price screens above the $5.89 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 20, 2026.
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Niterra Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells spark plugs and related products for internal-combustion engines and technical ceramics in Japan and internationally.
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The company offers spark plugs, including plugs for aftermarket and original equipment, igniter plugs, and resistor cables and covers; glow plugs comprising ceramic and metal type glow plugs, and glow controllers; and oxygen, NOx, temperature, and knock sensors.
It also provides semiconductor packages used in all kinds of products, including smartphones, cameras, and cars, as well as manufacturing parts for semiconductors, and medical products.
In addition, the company offers fine ceramics, balls for bearings, piezoelectric ceramics, other industrial ceramics such as plungers for pumps and ceramic protective plates, including wear-resistant parts, ultrasonic transducers and sensors, products for semiconductor manufacturing equipment, electric equipment products, and other ceramic products.
Further, it provides cutting tools comprising ceramic, micro grain carbide, coated carbide, and cubic boron nitride grades, as well as SS and rotational tools; and sumikaze, a sterilization deodorizer utilizes ozone to purify the air and inhibit invisible harmful substances and viruses.
The company sells its spark and glow plugs under the NGK brand; and sensors, semiconductor packages/substrates, cutting tools, oxygen concentrators, and piezoelectric and fine ceramics under the NTK brand.
The company was formerly known as NGK Spark Plug Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Niterra Co., Ltd. in April 2023. Niterra Co., Ltd. was founded in 1936 and is headquartered in Nagoya, Japan.
Stock analysis
NGK Spark Plug Co Ltd (NGKSY) currently trades at $6.64, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $5.89, 11.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $13.13 per share, and 14 of the 26 models we run sit above the $6.64 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $1.12, and 12 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $3.46 (bear) to $8.59 (bull), the price of $6.64 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
NGK Spark Plug Co Ltd ADR reported revenue of ¥775B in FY2026 versus ¥492B in FY2022, a compound +12.1%/yr. Reported net income was ¥120B in FY2026, compounding +18.7%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $7.7B Mid · P/E ratio 6.5 · P/S ratio 1.01 · EPS (TTM) $1.02 · Dividend yield 2.8% · Net margin 15.4% · Return on equity 24.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 72 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −26% fair-value upside, at −11%, NGKSY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$3.46Fair Value $5.89Bull$8.59
Price $6.64 · Upside -11.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.5757 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF$5.27$8.77$14.5378
Growth DCF$5.36$8.42$13.1277
Owner Earnings$5.15$8.56$14.1874
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$5.27$8.77$14.5378
Owner Earnings$5.15$8.56$14.1874
5Y Revenue Exit$3.95$6.28$9.2672
5Y EBITDA Exit$7.48$13.03$19.6474
5Y P/E Exit$8.15$14.32$20.9570
10Y Revenue Exit$4.24$6.54$9.6766
10Y EBITDA Exit$6.68$11.39$17.9467
10Y P/E Exit$7.12$12.32$18.9863
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd$4.44$15.30$20.5564
Lynch FV$3.53$5.05$6.5661
PEG = 1.0$3.53$5.05$6.5657
EPV$5.16$6.09$6.9274
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM$2.02$4.41$7.4065
DDM Multi-Stage$2.02$3.57$4.5966
Multiples
P/E Multiple$10.78$14.37$17.9663
P/S Multiple$3.81$5.08$6.3558
P/B Multiple$9.95$13.27$16.5955
EV/EBIT$10.67$14.33$17.9866
EV/EBITDA$9.36$12.58$15.8067
EV/Revenue$3.25$4.78$6.3053
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$0.7400$1.12$1.4055
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$5.36$8.42$13.1277
Rev-Margin DCF$3.95$6.30$9.0872
Economic Profit
Residual Income$4.45$5.76$9.0074
ROIC Compounder$5.44$7.19$9.4972
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E$9.19$13.13$17.0767
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a stock split.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.97/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+18.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.6%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.3% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+29.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+26.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.26.6% vs 15.8%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 19%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−14.6%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −16.4% a year for the price and +1.5% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Solid margins stand out for this auto parts supplier, yet limited visible moat signals leave it exposed in a competitive OEM supply chain.
Main risk: Uneven advance of electrification threatens demand for traditional combustion-engine parts and directly hits the core revenue base after the canceled acquisition.
Niterra just canceled its planned acquisition of Denso's spark plug and exhaust sensor businesses after Denso reassessed stronger demand for traditional powertrains. The move removes a key piece of the company's plan to consolidate its core auto parts operations while electrification advances unevenly. Our models currently see the stock as overvalued. Will Niterra now lean into organic growth from the resilient combustion segment or push harder into unrelated areas?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Parts · 653 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score66 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−11.2% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)24.8% · Top 25%
Return on assets9.8% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)24.3% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)20.1% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)19.9% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)2.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.27× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "NGK Spark Plug Co Ltd ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NGKSY
Frequently asked questions
Is NGK Spark Plug Co Ltd (NGKSY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 20, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $5.89 versus a price of $6.64, about −11% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NGKSY?
Our model-based fair value for NGK Spark Plug Co Ltd ADR is $5.89 (as of Oct 20, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $6.64.
What is the quality score of NGKSY?
NGK Spark Plug Co Ltd ADR has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for NGK Spark Plug Co Ltd (NGKSY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $5.89 (as of Oct 20, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.46, optimistic scenario $8.59. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the NGK Spark Plug Co Ltd ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $5.89, about −11% upside versus a price of $6.64 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $3.46, optimistic scenario $8.59. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of NGK Spark Plug Co Ltd (NGKSY)?
NGK Spark Plug Co Ltd ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥765B (latest available figure, as of Oct 20, 2026).
Does NGK Spark Plug Co Ltd ADR pay a dividend?
NGK Spark Plug Co Ltd ADR currently shows a dividend yield of 2.82% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 20, 2026).
What growth is priced into NGK Spark Plug Co Ltd (NGKSY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, NGK Spark Plug Co Ltd ADR would have to grow free cash flow by -14.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.6 % per year. As of Oct 20, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NGKSY use?
Our models discount NGK Spark Plug Co Ltd ADR at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.29, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For NGK Spark Plug Co Ltd ADR that is -14.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has NGK Spark Plug Co Ltd (NGKSY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at NGK Spark Plug Co Ltd ADR grew +12.6 % a year. The price currently implies -14.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of NGK Spark Plug Co Ltd (NGKSY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into NGK Spark Plug Co Ltd ADR (-14.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of NGK Spark Plug Co Ltd (NGKSY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 18.91 %: that much free cash flow NGK Spark Plug Co Ltd ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of NGK Spark Plug Co Ltd (NGKSY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For NGK Spark Plug Co Ltd ADR it is $5.89 per share (as of Oct 20, 2026), against a price of $6.64. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is NGK Spark Plug Co Ltd ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 20, 2026, NGKSY trades above its calculated fair value: price $6.64, fair value $5.89, a gap of about −11% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NGKSY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($6.64); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($5.89). For NGK Spark Plug Co Ltd ADR the two are $0.7460 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is NGK Spark Plug Co Ltd ADR worth?
The market values NGK Spark Plug Co Ltd ADR at about $7.7B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 20, 2026). Per share that is $6.64; our models calculate a fair value of $5.89 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NGKSY?
Our models span a range for NGK Spark Plug Co Ltd ADR: cautious scenario $3.46, base $5.89, optimistic $8.59 per share (as of Oct 20, 2026, price $6.64). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NGKSY?
NGK Spark Plug Co Ltd ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.5 (as of Oct 20, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $5.89 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.6, P/S 1.6, EV/EBITDA 6.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of NGK Spark Plug Co Ltd (NGKSY)?
Balance-sheet figures for NGK Spark Plug Co Ltd ADR (as of Oct 20, 2026): return on equity 24.8%, debt of 0.27 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 66/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to NGK Spark Plug Co Ltd ADR?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value O'Reilly Automotive, Inc, AutoZone, Inc, Hyundai Mobis Co, Fuyao Glass Industry Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is NGK Spark Plug Co Ltd ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 20, 2026: price $6.64, calculated fair value $5.89 (−11%), Quality Score 66/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NGKSY calculated?
We run NGK Spark Plug Co Ltd ADR through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $5.89, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. NGK Spark Plug Co Ltd ADR itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of NGK Spark Plug Co Ltd (NGKSY)?
The closing price on Oct 22, 2026 was $6.64. Our model-based fair value is $5.89, about −11% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with NGK Spark Plug Co Ltd ADR right now?
A fairly wide model range ($3.46 to $8.59) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of NGK Spark Plug Co Ltd (NGKSY) come from?
Earnings per share at NGK Spark Plug Co Ltd ADR grew +14.8 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.1 %, EBIT margin +1.5 %, tax rate +0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +4.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of NGK Spark Plug Co Ltd ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of NGK Spark Plug Co Ltd (NGKSY)?
The market capitalisation of NGK Spark Plug Co Ltd ADR is $7.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of NGK Spark Plug Co Ltd (NGKSY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of NGK Spark Plug Co Ltd ADR is 1.01 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of NGK Spark Plug Co Ltd (NGKSY)?
Earnings per share at NGK Spark Plug Co Ltd ADR are $1.02 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of NGK Spark Plug Co Ltd (NGKSY)?
The dividend yield of NGK Spark Plug Co Ltd ADR is 2.8% (payout 18.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of NGK Spark Plug Co Ltd (NGKSY)?
The net margin of NGK Spark Plug Co Ltd ADR is 15.4% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of NGK Spark Plug Co Ltd (NGKSY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of NGK Spark Plug Co Ltd ADR is 24.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of NGK Spark Plug Co Ltd (NGKSY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of NGK Spark Plug Co Ltd ADR is 11.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of NGK Spark Plug Co Ltd (NGKSY)?
The operating margin of NGK Spark Plug Co Ltd ADR is 20.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at NGK Spark Plug Co Ltd (NGKSY)?
Revenue at NGK Spark Plug Co Ltd ADR is growing +19.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at NGK Spark Plug Co Ltd (NGKSY)?
Earnings per share at NGK Spark Plug Co Ltd ADR are growing +311% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does NGK Spark Plug Co Ltd (NGKSY) carry?
The net debt of NGK Spark Plug Co Ltd ADR is ¥55.0B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 0.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Oct 20, 2026