Neogrid Participações S.A (NGRD3) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Jul 14, 2026: fair value of Neogrid Participações S.A BRL 28.84, price BRL 34.28, upside -15.9%, quality 65 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$19.16 – R$193.09 · fair‑value band R$22.80 – R$36.90 · the R$34.28 price screens above the R$28.84 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Neogrid Participações S.A., together with its subsidiaries, develops, licenses, sells, and implements customized software for supply chain management and synchronization worldwide. The company provides related technical advisory and training services.
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Neogrid Participações S.A., together with its subsidiaries, develops, licenses, sells, and implements customized software for supply chain management and synchronization worldwide. The company provides related technical advisory and training services. It also offers software and databases installation, configuration and maintenance services, as well as technical IT support services. The company was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Joinville, Brazil.
Stock analysis
Neogrid Participações S.A (NGRD3) currently trades at R$34.28, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$28.84, 15.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of R$32.61 per share, and 3 of the 11 models we run sit above the R$34.28 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at R$27.32, and 8 of the 11 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: R$22.80 (bear) to R$36.90 (bull), the price of R$34.28 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Neogrid Participações S.A reported revenue of R$271M in FY2025 versus R$246M in FY2021, a compound +2.5%/yr. Reported net income was −R$5.4M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap R$305M (≈ $58.5M) · P/S ratio 1.16 · EPS (TTM) R$−1.10 · Net margin −2.0% · Return on equity −2.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.3% · Operating margin −14.2% · Revenue (TTM) R$267M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 42% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −8% fair-value upside, at −16%, NGRD3 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R$22.80Fair Value R$28.84Bull R$36.90
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.35/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.1% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.1%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
16.0% (2020) → −6.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+10.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Brazil: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 5.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +6.8% a year for the price.
Compare Neogrid Participações S.A with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Application · 685 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Above median
Fair Value upside−15.9% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets−2.2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−3.7% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)−14.2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−5.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Neogrid Participações S.A (NGRD3) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$28.84 versus the last price from Jul 14, 2026 of R$34.28, about −16% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NGRD3?
Our model-based fair value for Neogrid Participações S.A is R$28.84 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Jul 14, 2026): R$34.28.
What is the quality score of NGRD3?
Neogrid Participações S.A has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Neogrid Participações S.A (NGRD3)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$28.84 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$22.80, optimistic scenario R$36.90. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Neogrid Participações S.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$28.84, about −16% upside versus the last price from Jul 14, 2026 of R$34.28 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R$22.80, optimistic scenario R$36.90. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Neogrid Participações S.A (NGRD3)?
Neogrid Participações S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about R$267M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Neogrid Participações S.A (NGRD3)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Neogrid Participações S.A would have to grow free cash flow by +10.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 14.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.0 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NGRD3 use?
Our models discount Neogrid Participações S.A at 14.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.26, country premium for Brazil. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Neogrid Participações S.A that is +10.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (14.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Neogrid Participações S.A (NGRD3) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Neogrid Participações S.A grew +5.0 % a year. The price currently implies +10.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Neogrid Participações S.A (NGRD3) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +10.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Neogrid Participações S.A (+10.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Neogrid Participações S.A (NGRD3)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.71 %: that much free cash flow Neogrid Participações S.A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (14.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Neogrid Participações S.A (NGRD3)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Neogrid Participações S.A it is R$28.84 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of R$34.28. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Neogrid Participações S.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, NGRD3 trades above its calculated fair value: price R$34.28, fair value R$28.84, a gap of about −16% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NGRD3?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$34.28); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$28.84). For Neogrid Participações S.A the two are R$5.44 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Neogrid Participações S.A worth?
The market values Neogrid Participações S.A at about R$305M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is R$34.28; our models calculate a fair value of R$28.84 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NGRD3?
Our models span a range for Neogrid Participações S.A: cautious scenario R$22.80, base R$28.84, optimistic R$36.90 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price R$34.28). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Neogrid Participações S.A (NGRD3)?
Balance-sheet figures for Neogrid Participações S.A (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −2.2%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NGRD3 from its 52-week high?
Neogrid Participações S.A trades at R$34.28, about 16% below its 52-week high of R$40.95 and 42% above the low of R$24.12 (as of Jul 14, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$28.84 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Neogrid Participações S.A?
From the same area (Technology) we also value SAP SE, Salesforce, Inc, Shopify Inc, ServiceNow, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Neogrid Participações S.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price R$34.28, calculated fair value R$28.84 (−16%), Quality Score 65/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NGRD3 calculated?
We run Neogrid Participações S.A through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$28.84, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Neogrid Participações S.A itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Neogrid Participações S.A (NGRD3)?
The latest price we hold is from Jul 14, 2026 and stands at R$34.28. Our model-based fair value is R$28.84, about −16% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Neogrid Participações S.A right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Neogrid Participações S.A
How large is the market capitalisation of Neogrid Participações S.A (NGRD3)?
The market capitalisation of Neogrid Participações S.A is R$305M (≈ $58.5M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Neogrid Participações S.A (NGRD3)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Neogrid Participações S.A is 1.16 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Neogrid Participações S.A (NGRD3)?
Earnings per share at Neogrid Participações S.A are R$−1.10. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Neogrid Participações S.A (NGRD3)?
The net margin of Neogrid Participações S.A is −2.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Neogrid Participações S.A (NGRD3)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Neogrid Participações S.A is −2.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Neogrid Participações S.A (NGRD3)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Neogrid Participações S.A is −1.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Neogrid Participações S.A (NGRD3)?
The operating margin of Neogrid Participações S.A is −14.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Neogrid Participações S.A (NGRD3)?
Revenue at Neogrid Participações S.A is growing −5.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Neogrid Participações S.A (NGRD3)?
Earnings per share at Neogrid Participações S.A are growing −59.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Neogrid Participações S.A (NGRD3) hold?
Neogrid Participações S.A holds more cash than debt, R$65.5M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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