Neogrid Participações S.A (NGRD3) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · BR · Market cap R$311M
Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026
From 11 valuation models · updated 26 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 15, 2026, revised from R$28.49 to R$28.08 (−1.4%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +0.7% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 18% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (R$33.30). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$19.16 – R$193.09 · fair‑value band R$22.86 – R$33.30 · the R$34.28 price screens above the R$28.08 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
Analysis
Neogrid Participações S.A (NGRD3) currently trades at R$34.28, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$28.08, implying the stock looks roughly 18.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Neogrid Participações S.A generated revenue of R$267M at a net margin of -3.7%. Revenue declined 5.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -2.2%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of R$65.5M. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026
Our scenario range runs from R$22.86 (bear case) to R$33.30 (bull case); at R$34.28, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 43% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -27% fair-value upside, at -18%, NGRD3 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 11 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (R$32.61) versus Growth DCF (R$27.81). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 70
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Neogrid Participações S.A., together with its subsidiaries, develops, licenses, sells, and implements customized software for supply chain management and synchronization worldwide. The company provides related technical advisory and training services.
Full company description
Neogrid Participações S.A., together with its subsidiaries, develops, licenses, sells, and implements customized software for supply chain management and synchronization worldwide. The company provides related technical advisory and training services. It also offers software and databases installation, configuration and maintenance services, as well as technical IT support services. The company was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Joinville, Brazil.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Neogrid Participações S.A reported revenue of R$271M in FY2025 versus R$246M in FY2021, a compound +2.5%/yr. Reported net income was −R$5.4M in FY2025.
NGRD3 screens 18% overvalued. Compare with SAP SE →
Peer Group
Software - Application · 709 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAP SE SAPS | C$12.69 | C$16.26 | +28% |
| Shopify Inc SHOP | C$173.23 | C$20.54 | -88% |
| Uber Technologies, Inc UBER | $72.67 | $51.11 | -30% |
| Salesforce, Inc CRM | $170.77 | $182.10 | +7% |
| ServiceNow, Inc NOW | $107.71 | $33.12 | -69% |
| Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS | $384.17 | $80.41 | -79% |
| Snowflake Inc SNOW | $271.87 | $34.04 | -87% |
| Adobe Inc ADBE | $230.61 | $379.48 | +65% |
| Automatic Data Processing, Inc ADP | $241.92 | $177.51 | -27% |
| Intuit Inc INTU | $291.09 | $258.69 | -11% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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