Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc (NGVC) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $694M
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc
NGVC · US
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Share price −15.2% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 15% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- A fairly wide model range ($18.42 to $43.50) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- Our model range runs from $18.42 (bear) to $43.50 (bull), base $32.53. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 64/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $7.43 – $58.45 · fair‑value band $18.42 – $43.50 · the $28.39 price screens below the $32.53 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc (NGVC) currently trades at $28.39, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $32.53, implying the stock looks roughly 14.6% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc generated revenue of $1.3B at a net margin of 3.6%. Revenue grew 0.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 22.7%. Net debt stands at $315M. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $18.42 (bear case) to $43.50 (bull case); at $28.39, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -31% fair-value upside, at 15%, NGVC screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($35.46) versus Dividend Discount ($6.11). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 32
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, retails natural and organic groceries, and dietary supplements in the United States.
Full company description
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, retails natural and organic groceries, and dietary supplements in the United States. The company's stores offer natural and organic grocery products, such as organic produce; private label repackaged bulk products, including dried fruits, nuts, grains, granolas, teas, herbs, and spices, as well as peanut and almond butters; private label products comprising grocery staples, household products, bulk foods, and vitamins and dietary supplements, as well as organic eggs, organic flavored coffee, and organic mustard; dry, frozen, and canned groceries; meat and seafood products; dairy products, dairy substitutes, and eggs; prepared foods; bread and baked products; beverages; and beer, wine, and hard cider products. Its stores also provide name-brand supplements, as well as private label dietary supplements; body care products consisting of cosmetics, skin care, hair care, fragrance, and personal care products containing natural and organic ingredients; pet care and food products; household and general merchandise, including cleaning supplies, paper products, and dish and laundry soaps, as well as other common household products, such as diapers; and books and handouts. The company operates its retail stores under the Natural Grocers, Vitamin Cottage, Health Hotline, Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage trademark, as well as Vitamin Cottage Natural Grocers and Health Hotline trademarks. The company also offers science-based nutrition education programs to help customers make informed health and nutrition choices. The company was formerly known as Vitamin Cottage Natural Food Markets, Inc. Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. was founded in 1955 and is headquartered in Lakewood, Colorado.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc reported revenue of $1.3B in FY2025 versus $1.1B in FY2021, a compound +6.0%/yr. Reported net income was $46.4M in FY2025, compounding +22.6%/yr from FY2021.
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Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Natural Foods Stocks Gain as Consumers Prioritize Health & Wellness
- Natural Grocers Gains 26% YTD: Should You Buy the Stock?
- NGVC's Q2 Earnings Rise Y/Y on Loyalty Program Growth, Stock Up 4%
Peer Group
Grocery Stores · 83 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Grocery Stores median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Grocery Stores stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loblaw Companies Limited L | C$65.49 | C$44.44 | -32% |
| Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V AD | €36.30 | €53.50 | +47% |
| The Kroger Co KR | $58.82 | $28.19 | -52% |
| Woolworths Group WOW | A$39.20 | A$13.40 | -66% |
| George Weston Limited WN | C$100.98 | C$63.61 | -37% |
| Coles Group COL | A$23.56 | A$15.86 | -33% |
| Metro Inc MRU | C$93.64 | C$94.01 | +0% |
| Carrefour SA CA | €16.40 | €11.51 | -30% |
| CP ALL Public Company TCPD | 1.89 SGD | 2.36 SGD | +25% |
| BIM Birlesik Magazalar A.S., BIMAS | 385.75 TRY | 267.12 TRY | -31% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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