Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc (NGVC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc $32.66, price $29.66, upside +10.1%, quality 64 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $7.43 – $58.45 · fair‑value band $18.64 – $43.50 · the $29.66 price screens below the $32.66 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, retails natural and organic groceries, and dietary supplements in the United States.
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Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, retails natural and organic groceries, and dietary supplements in the United States. The company's stores offer natural and organic grocery products, such as organic produce; private label repackaged bulk products, including dried fruits, nuts, grains, granolas, teas, herbs, and spices, as well as peanut and almond butters; private label products comprising grocery staples, household products, bulk foods, and vitamins and dietary supplements, as well as organic eggs, organic flavored coffee, and organic mustard; dry, frozen, and canned groceries; meat and seafood products; dairy products, dairy substitutes, and eggs; prepared foods; bread and baked products; beverages; and beer, wine, and hard cider products. Its stores also provide name-brand supplements, as well as private label dietary supplements; body care products consisting of cosmetics, skin care, hair care, fragrance, and personal care products containing natural and organic ingredients; pet care and food products; household and general merchandise, including cleaning supplies, paper products, and dish and laundry soaps, as well as other common household products, such as diapers; and books and handouts. The company operates its retail stores under the Natural Grocers, Vitamin Cottage, Health Hotline, Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage trademark, as well as Vitamin Cottage Natural Grocers and Health Hotline trademarks. The company also offers science-based nutrition education programs to help customers make informed health and nutrition choices. The company was formerly known as Vitamin Cottage Natural Food Markets, Inc. Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. was founded in 1955 and is headquartered in Lakewood, Colorado.
Stock analysis
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc (NGVC) currently trades at $29.66, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $32.66, implying the stock looks roughly 9.2% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $35.46 per share, and 15 of the 26 models we run sit above the $29.66 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $6.11, and 11 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $18.64 (bear) to $43.50 (bull), the price of $29.66 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc reported revenue of $1.3B in FY2025 versus $1.1B in FY2021, a compound +6.0%/yr. Reported net income was $46.4M in FY2025, compounding +22.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $690M · P/E ratio 14.3 · P/S ratio 0.50 · EPS (TTM) $2.08 · Dividend yield 1.8% · Net margin 3.5% · Return on equity 22.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 6% fair-value upside, at 10%, NGVC screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $18.64Fair Value $32.66Bull $43.50
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.51 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.60/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.9% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+19.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+17.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.18% vs 13%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 5%
2025 sits 96% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+21.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +19.1% a year for the price and +2.5% for the forecasts.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Grocery Stores · 79 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+10% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)23% · Top 25%
Return on assets6% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)4% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.8% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.03× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Grocery Stores median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NGVC
Frequently asked questions
Is Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc (NGVC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $32.66 versus a price of $29.66, about +10% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of NGVC?
Our model-based fair value for Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc is $32.66 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $29.66.
What is the quality score of NGVC?
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc (NGVC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $32.66 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $18.64, optimistic scenario $43.50. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $32.66, about +10% upside versus a price of $29.66 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $18.64, optimistic scenario $43.50. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc (NGVC)?
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc pay a dividend?
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.82% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc (NGVC)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +21.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.1 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NGVC use?
Our models discount Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc at 12.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.29, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc that is +21.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc (NGVC) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc grew +5.1 % a year. The price currently implies +21.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc (NGVC) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc (+21.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc (NGVC)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.49 %: that much free cash flow Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc (NGVC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc it is $32.66 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $29.66. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, NGVC trades below its calculated fair value: price $29.66, fair value $32.66, a gap of about +10% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NGVC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($29.66); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($32.66). For Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc the two are $3.00 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc worth?
The market values Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc at about $690M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $29.66; our models calculate a fair value of $32.66 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NGVC?
Our models span a range for Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc: cautious scenario $18.64, base $32.66, optimistic $43.50 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $29.66). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NGVC?
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.3 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $32.66 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.4, P/B 3.3, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 6.9.
What is the PEG ratio of NGVC?
The PEG ratio of Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc is 1.44 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc (NGVC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 22.7%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NGVC from its 52-week high?
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc trades at $29.66, about 26% below its 52-week high of $40.30 and 26% above the low of $23.45 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $32.66 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Loblaw Companies Limited, Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V, The Kroger Co, Woolworths Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $29.66, calculated fair value $32.66 (+10%), Quality Score 64/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NGVC calculated?
We run Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $32.66, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc currently trades 10 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc (NGVC)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $29.66. Our model-based fair value is $32.66, about +10% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc right now?
A fairly wide model range ($18.64 to $43.50) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc (NGVC) come from?
Earnings per share at Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc grew +10.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.7 %, EBIT margin −0.5 %, tax rate +2.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc (NGVC)?
The market capitalisation of Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc is $690M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc (NGVC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc is 0.50 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc (NGVC)?
Earnings per share at Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc are $2.08 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc (NGVC)?
The dividend yield of Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc is 1.8% (payout 26.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc (NGVC)?
The net margin of Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc is 3.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc (NGVC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc is 22.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc (NGVC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc is 6.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc (NGVC)?
The operating margin of Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc is 5.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc (NGVC)?
Revenue at Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc is growing +0.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc (NGVC)?
Earnings per share at Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc are growing +3.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc (NGVC) carry?
The net debt of Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc is $315M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 13.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 23, 2026