NIO Inc (NIOIF) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $13.0B

Below-average quality, and screening another 41% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($4.99). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Weak quality (28/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
• The model range is unusually wide ($1.44 to $4.99). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
• The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Price vs Fair Value (4 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.

How to read this chart

44‑month range $3.30 – $12.50 · fair‑value band $1.44 – $4.99 · the $5.20 price screens above the $3.06 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.

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Analysis

NIO Inc (NIOIF) currently trades at $5.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.06, implying the stock looks roughly 41.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 28/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).

Over the trailing twelve months, NIO Inc generated revenue of $101B at a net margin of -9.1%. Revenue grew 112.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -84.0%. Net debt stands at $5.2B. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $1.44 (bear case) to $4.99 (bull case); at $5.20, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 51% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 25% fair-value upside, at -41%, NIOIF screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($19.62) versus Asset-Based ($1.18). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

NIO Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and sells smart electric vehicles in China, Europe, and internationally. It offers five and six-seater electric SUVs, as well as smart electric sedans.

Full company description

NIO Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and sells smart electric vehicles in China, Europe, and internationally. It offers five and six-seater electric SUVs, as well as smart electric sedans. The company also offers power solutions, including Power Home, a home charging solution; Power Swap, a battery-swapping service; Power Charger and Destination Charger; Power Mobile, a mobile charging service through charging vans; Power Map, an application that provides access to a network of public chargers and their real-time information; and One Click for power valet service. In addition, it provides repair, maintenance, car beauty, and inspection services through its service centers and authorized third-party service centers; vehicle transportation and delivery, pre-delivery inspections, guidance on vehicle features, assistance with vehicle registration, and insurance processing services; insurance, maintenance, repairs, accident rescue, car washing, chauffeur services, and valet parking services; and remote monitoring and real-time diagnostics services, as well as technical, warranty, and auto financing arrangements. Further, the company is involved in the provision of energy and service packages to its users; design and technology development activities; manufacture of electric powertrains, battery packs, and components; and sales and after-sales management activities. Additionally, it operates in app NIO Auto Mall where users can select from various accessories and value added services; and online auction platform. The company was formerly known as NextEV Inc. and changed its name to NIO Inc. in July 2017. NIO Inc. was incorporated in 2014 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

NIO Inc reported revenue of $85.2B in FY2025 versus $36.1B in FY2021, a compound +23.9%/yr. Reported net income was −$14.6B in FY2025.

NIOIF screens 41% overvalued. Compare with Toyota Motor Corporation →

Peer Group

Auto Manufacturers · 119 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 25/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.