Northern Arc Capital Ltd (NORTHARC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Northern Arc Capital Ltd ₹326, price ₹289, upside +13.0%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
24‑month range ₹166.23 – ₹325.30 · fair‑value band ₹244.66 – ₹722.68 · the ₹288.70 price screens below the ₹326.22 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.
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Northern Arc Capital Limited operates as a non-banking financial company in India. It operates through Financing Activity, Investment Advisory Services, and Investment Management Services segments.
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Northern Arc Capital Limited operates as a non-banking financial company in India. It operates through Financing Activity, Investment Advisory Services, and Investment Management Services segments. The company offers lending and allied services, such as advisory and syndication services; loans for personal, business, education, and mortgage purposes; MSME financing, MFI, consumer and vehicle finance, and housing and agriculture finance; rural financing; mid-market corporate lending, loans against property, and supply chain finance; and fund management services, including alternative investment funds and portfolio management services. It also provides debt products, such as term and working capital loans, non-convertible debentures, principal protected market linked debentures, commercial papers, external commercial borrowings, and sub-debt products; and credit-enhanced debt products, including guarantee-backed lending, single issuer partial credit enhanced, and pooled loan and bond issuance program. In addition, the company offers portfolio financing products comprising rated securitization, multi-originator microfinance securitization, persistent securitizations, and direct assignment. Further, it provides Altifi, an alternative retail debt investment platform; Nimbus, a curated debt platform that enables end-to-end processing of debt transactions; nPOS, a co-lending and co-origination technology solution; and NuScore, a customized machine learning based analytical module designed to assist in the loan underwriting process. The company serves rural and retail customers; micro, small, and medium enterprises; originator partners; emerging corporates; and institutional investors. The company was formerly known as IFMR Capital Finance Limited and changed its name to Northern Arc Capital Limited in February 2018. Northern Arc Capital Limited was incorporated in 1989 and is based in Chennai, India.
Stock analysis
Northern Arc Capital Ltd (NORTHARC) currently trades at ₹288.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹326.22, implying the stock looks roughly 11.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of ₹1,882 per share, and 7 of the 9 models we run sit above the ₹288.70 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ₹161.31, and 2 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: ₹244.66 (bear) to ₹722.68 (bull), the price of ₹288.70 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Northern Arc Capital Ltd reported revenue of ₹27.0B in FY2026 versus ₹7.2B in FY2022, a compound +39.0%/yr. Reported net income was ₹4.1B in FY2026, compounding +22.2%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap ₹47.2B (≈ $490M) · P/E ratio 10.8 · P/S ratio 1.62 · EPS (TTM) ₹26.81 · Net margin 15.0% · Return on equity 11.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.9% · Operating margin 38.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 40% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 13%, NORTHARC screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ₹244.66Fair Value ₹326.22Bull ₹722.68
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹13.66 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+32.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+37.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+53.8%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +34.1% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+34.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+27.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+27.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.27.7% vs 13.6%, picking up
Profit margin 2019 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.40% → 18%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+11.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+11.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (India: IMF forecast 4.1% a year to 2030, 4.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +6.7% a year for the price and +7.1% for the forecasts.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Credit Services · 329 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Above median
Fair Value upside+13.0% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)11.0% · Above median
Return on assets2.7% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)36.6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)38.5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth43.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity3.15× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Credit Services median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Northern Arc Capital Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NORTHARC
Frequently asked questions
Is Northern Arc Capital Ltd (NORTHARC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹326.22 versus a price of ₹288.70, about +13% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of NORTHARC?
Our model-based fair value for Northern Arc Capital Ltd is ₹326.22 (as of Oct 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹288.70.
What is the quality score of NORTHARC?
Northern Arc Capital Ltd has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Northern Arc Capital Ltd (NORTHARC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹326.22 (as of Oct 1, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹244.66, optimistic scenario ₹722.68. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Northern Arc Capital Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹326.22, about +13% upside versus a price of ₹288.70 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ₹244.66, optimistic scenario ₹722.68. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Northern Arc Capital Ltd (NORTHARC)?
Northern Arc Capital Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹12.0B (latest available figure, as of Oct 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into Northern Arc Capital Ltd (NORTHARC)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Northern Arc Capital Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +11.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 15.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +53.8 % per year. As of Oct 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NORTHARC use?
Our models discount Northern Arc Capital Ltd at 15.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.39, country premium for India. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Northern Arc Capital Ltd that is +11.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (15.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Northern Arc Capital Ltd (NORTHARC) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Northern Arc Capital Ltd grew +53.8 % a year. The price currently implies +11.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Northern Arc Capital Ltd (NORTHARC) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Northern Arc Capital Ltd (+11.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Northern Arc Capital Ltd (NORTHARC)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 40.50 %: that much free cash flow Northern Arc Capital Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (15.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Northern Arc Capital Ltd (NORTHARC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Northern Arc Capital Ltd it is ₹326.22 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026), against a price of ₹288.70. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Northern Arc Capital Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 1, 2026, NORTHARC trades below its calculated fair value: price ₹288.70, fair value ₹326.22, a gap of about +13% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NORTHARC?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹288.70); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹326.22). For Northern Arc Capital Ltd the two are ₹37.52 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Northern Arc Capital Ltd worth?
The market values Northern Arc Capital Ltd at about ₹47.2B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 1, 2026). Per share that is ₹288.70; our models calculate a fair value of ₹326.22 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NORTHARC?
Our models span a range for Northern Arc Capital Ltd: cautious scenario ₹244.66, base ₹326.22, optimistic ₹722.68 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026, price ₹288.70). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NORTHARC?
Northern Arc Capital Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.8 (as of Oct 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹326.22 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.2, P/S 3.9, EV/EBITDA 29.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Northern Arc Capital Ltd (NORTHARC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Northern Arc Capital Ltd (as of Oct 1, 2026): return on equity 11.0%, debt of 3.15 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NORTHARC from its 52-week high?
Northern Arc Capital Ltd trades at ₹288.70, about 11% below its 52-week high of ₹325.30 and 40% above the low of ₹206.85 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹326.22 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Northern Arc Capital Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Visa Inc, Mastercard Incorporated, American Express Company, Capital One Financial Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Northern Arc Capital Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 1, 2026: price ₹288.70, calculated fair value ₹326.22 (+13%), Quality Score 54/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NORTHARC calculated?
We run Northern Arc Capital Ltd through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹326.22, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Northern Arc Capital Ltd currently trades 12 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Northern Arc Capital Ltd (NORTHARC)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was ₹288.70. Our model-based fair value is ₹326.22, about +13% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Northern Arc Capital Ltd right now?
The model range is unusually wide (₹244.66 to ₹722.68). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Northern Arc Capital Ltd (NORTHARC) come from?
Earnings per share at Northern Arc Capital Ltd grew +14.1 % a year from 2016 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +27.4 %, EBIT margin −11.6 %, tax rate +1.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Northern Arc Capital Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Northern Arc Capital Ltd (NORTHARC)?
The market capitalisation of Northern Arc Capital Ltd is ₹47.2B (≈ $490M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Northern Arc Capital Ltd (NORTHARC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Northern Arc Capital Ltd is 1.62 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Northern Arc Capital Ltd (NORTHARC)?
Earnings per share at Northern Arc Capital Ltd are ₹26.81 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Northern Arc Capital Ltd (NORTHARC)?
The net margin of Northern Arc Capital Ltd is 15.0% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Northern Arc Capital Ltd (NORTHARC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Northern Arc Capital Ltd is 11.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Northern Arc Capital Ltd (NORTHARC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Northern Arc Capital Ltd is 2.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Northern Arc Capital Ltd (NORTHARC)?
The operating margin of Northern Arc Capital Ltd is 38.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Northern Arc Capital Ltd (NORTHARC)?
Revenue at Northern Arc Capital Ltd is growing +43.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +37.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Northern Arc Capital Ltd (NORTHARC)?
Earnings per share at Northern Arc Capital Ltd are growing +40.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Northern Arc Capital Ltd (NORTHARC) carry?
The net debt of Northern Arc Capital Ltd is ₹118B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 6.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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