Nippon Gas Co (NPNGY) Fair Value & Analysis

Utilities · US · Market cap $1.8B

A strong business, but screening 11% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• A fairly wide model range ($5.24 to $9.70) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
• Our model range runs from $5.24 (bear) to $9.70 (bull), base $7.76. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
• Quality 75/100 (high quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.

Price vs Fair Value (3 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.

How to read this chart

40‑month range $7.09 – $9.53 · fair‑value band $5.24 – $9.70 · the $8.67 price screens above the $7.76 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Nippon Gas Co (NPNGY) currently trades at $8.67, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.76, implying the stock looks roughly 10.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 75/100 (high quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Nippon Gas Co generated revenue of $208B at a net margin of 7.1%. Revenue grew 7.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 22.0%. Net debt stands at $19.1B. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $5.24 (bear case) to $9.70 (bull case); at $8.67, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -19% fair-value upside, at -11%, NPNGY screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Multiples ($7.76) versus Asset-Based ($1.31). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Nippon Gas Co., Ltd. engages in the supply and sale of LP gas and natural gas in Japan. It operates through LP Gas Business, Electricity Business, and City Gas Business segments.

Full company description

Nippon Gas Co., Ltd. engages in the supply and sale of LP gas and natural gas in Japan. It operates through LP Gas Business, Electricity Business, and City Gas Business segments. The company supplies LP gas through pipelines to homes built for sale, company dormitories, apartment buildings, other residential apartment complexes, as well as for residential, commercial, industrial, agricultural, and automotive use; and high-pressure gas for commercial and industrial use. It also sells glass-top stoves, built-in stoves, gas oven ranges, gas rice cookers, dishwashers, etc.; gas water heaters, instant water heaters, floor heating products, bathroom heater/ventilation/dryer combo systems, mist saunas, etc.; and commercial and industrial gas appliances. In addition, the company sells air-conditioning equipment, including gas and absorption heat pumps, cogeneration systems, and gas infrared heaters; and household equipment, as well as provides remodeling-related equipment and accident insurance agency services. Further, it engages in the residential remodeling and consulting business; construction of gas, water supply, drainage, and air conditioning/heating equipment; and electric power business. The company was incorporated in 1947 and is based in Tokyo, Japan.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

Nippon Gas Co reported revenue of $208B in FY2026 versus $163B in FY2022, a compound +6.4%/yr. Reported net income was $14.8B in FY2026, compounding +10.4%/yr from FY2022.

NPNGY screens 11% overvalued. Compare with Naturgy Energy Group →

Peer Group

Utilities - Regulated Gas · 104 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Gas median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.