Nippon Gas Co., Ltd. (NPNGY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 23, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Nippon Gas Co., Ltd. stock $5.00, price $5.90, that is 15.3% below the price, quality 75 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
43‑month range $4.42 – $46.07 · fair‑value band $3.74 – $6.25 · the $5.90 price screens above the $5.00 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.
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Nippon Gas Co., Ltd. engages in the supply and sale of LP gas and natural gas in Japan. It operates through LP Gas Business, Electricity Business, and City Gas Business segments.
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The company supplies LP gas through pipelines to homes built for sale, company dormitories, apartment buildings, other residential apartment complexes, as well as for residential, commercial, industrial, agricultural, and automotive use; and high-pressure gas for commercial and industrial use.
It also sells glass-top stoves, built-in stoves, gas oven ranges, gas rice cookers, dishwashers, etc.; gas water heaters, instant water heaters, floor heating products, bathroom heater/ventilation/dryer combo systems, mist saunas, etc.; and commercial and industrial gas appliances.
In addition, the company sells air-conditioning equipment, including gas and absorption heat pumps, cogeneration systems, and gas infrared heaters; and household equipment, as well as provides remodeling-related equipment and accident insurance agency services.
Further, it engages in the residential remodeling and consulting business; construction of gas, water supply, drainage, and air conditioning/heating equipment; and electric power business. The company was incorporated in 1947 and is based in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Nippon Gas Co., Ltd. (NPNGY) currently trades at $5.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $5.00, 15% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $5.83 per share, and 2 of the 26 models we run sit above the $5.90 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $0.8000, and 24 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $3.74 (bear) to $6.25 (bull), the price of $5.90 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 75/100 (high quality), in the Utilities sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Nippon Gas Co., Ltd. reported revenue of ¥208B in FY2026 versus ¥163B in FY2022, a compound +6.4%/yr. Reported net income was ¥14.8B in FY2026, compounding +10.4%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $1.9B Small · P/E ratio 20.3 · P/S ratio 1.45 · EPS (TTM) $0.2900 · Dividend yield 3.7% · Net margin 7.1% · Return on equity 22.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.8% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 56 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 87% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at −15%, NPNGY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$3.74Fair Value $5.00Bull$6.25
Price $5.90 · Downside -15.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0446 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.81/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.8%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.8%
’20
’21
’22
’23
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’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+16.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+12.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.7%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 10%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−12.6%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −14.4% a year for the price and +0.8% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (2 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Gas · 107 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score75 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−15.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)22.9% · Top 25%
Return on assets9.1% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)7.0% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)7.7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)8.8% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.7% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.42× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Gas median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)20.3× · Pricier than median
P/B4.46× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)1.41× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)14.6× · Cheaper than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Nippon Gas Co., Ltd. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NPNGY
Frequently asked questions
Is Nippon Gas Co., Ltd. (NPNGY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $5.00 versus the last price from Oct 23, 2026 of $5.90, about 15% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NPNGY?
Our model-based fair value for Nippon Gas Co., Ltd. is $5.00 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Oct 23, 2026): $5.90.
What is the quality score of NPNGY?
Nippon Gas Co., Ltd. has a Quality Score of 75/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nippon Gas Co., Ltd. (NPNGY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $5.00 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.74, optimistic scenario $6.25. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nippon Gas Co., Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $5.00, about 15% lower versus the last price from Oct 23, 2026 of $5.90 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $3.74, optimistic scenario $6.25. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Nippon Gas Co., Ltd. (NPNGY)?
Nippon Gas Co., Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥213B (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
Does Nippon Gas Co., Ltd. pay a dividend?
Nippon Gas Co., Ltd. currently shows a dividend yield of 3.67% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Nippon Gas Co., Ltd. (NPNGY) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Nippon Gas Co., Ltd. pays a dividend of $0.217 per share a year, a dividend yield of 3.7%. The last ex-dividend date was Mar 31, 2026. The payout ratio is 74.0% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.86 times. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What growth is priced into Nippon Gas Co., Ltd. (NPNGY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Nippon Gas Co., Ltd. would have to grow free cash flow by -12.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.8 % per year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NPNGY use?
Our models discount Nippon Gas Co., Ltd. at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.00, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Nippon Gas Co., Ltd. that is -12.6 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Nippon Gas Co., Ltd. (NPNGY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Nippon Gas Co., Ltd. grew +7.8 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -12.6 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Nippon Gas Co., Ltd. (NPNGY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Nippon Gas Co., Ltd. (-12.6 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Nippon Gas Co., Ltd. (NPNGY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 20.49 %: that much free cash flow Nippon Gas Co., Ltd. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Nippon Gas Co., Ltd. (NPNGY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nippon Gas Co., Ltd. it is $5.00 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of $5.90. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Nippon Gas Co., Ltd. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, NPNGY trades above its calculated fair value: price $5.90, fair value $5.00, a gap of about −15% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NPNGY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($5.90); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($5.00). For Nippon Gas Co., Ltd. the two are $0.9000 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nippon Gas Co., Ltd. worth?
The market values Nippon Gas Co., Ltd. at about $1.9B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is $5.90; our models calculate a fair value of $5.00 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NPNGY?
Our models span a range for Nippon Gas Co., Ltd.: cautious scenario $3.74, base $5.00, optimistic $6.25 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price $5.90). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NPNGY?
Nippon Gas Co., Ltd. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.3 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $5.00 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 4.5, P/S 1.4, EV/EBITDA 9.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Nippon Gas Co., Ltd. (NPNGY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Nippon Gas Co., Ltd. (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 22.9%, debt of 0.42 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 75/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NPNGY from its 52-week high?
Nippon Gas Co., Ltd. trades at $5.90, about 87% below its 52-week high of $46.07 and 11% above the low of $5.33 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $5.00 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Nippon Gas Co., Ltd.?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value Naturgy Energy Group, Atmos Energy Corporation, Snam S.p.A, NiSource Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nippon Gas Co., Ltd. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price $5.90, calculated fair value $5.00 (−15%), Quality Score 75/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NPNGY calculated?
We run Nippon Gas Co., Ltd. through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $5.00 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Nippon Gas Co., Ltd. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Nippon Gas Co., Ltd. (NPNGY)?
The latest price we hold is from Oct 23, 2026 and stands at $5.90. Our model-based fair value is $5.00, about 15% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Nippon Gas Co., Ltd. right now?
A high-quality business (quality 75/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Nippon Gas Co., Ltd.
How large is the market capitalisation of Nippon Gas Co., Ltd. (NPNGY)?
The market capitalisation of Nippon Gas Co., Ltd. is $1.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Nippon Gas Co., Ltd. (NPNGY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Nippon Gas Co., Ltd. is 1.45 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Nippon Gas Co., Ltd. (NPNGY)?
Earnings per share at Nippon Gas Co., Ltd. are $0.2900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Nippon Gas Co., Ltd. (NPNGY)?
The dividend yield of Nippon Gas Co., Ltd. is 3.7% (payout 74.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Nippon Gas Co., Ltd. (NPNGY)?
The net margin of Nippon Gas Co., Ltd. is 7.1% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Nippon Gas Co., Ltd. (NPNGY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Nippon Gas Co., Ltd. is 22.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Nippon Gas Co., Ltd. (NPNGY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Nippon Gas Co., Ltd. is 10.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Nippon Gas Co., Ltd. (NPNGY)?
The operating margin of Nippon Gas Co., Ltd. is 7.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Nippon Gas Co., Ltd. (NPNGY)?
Revenue at Nippon Gas Co., Ltd. is growing +8.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Nippon Gas Co., Ltd. (NPNGY)?
Earnings per share at Nippon Gas Co., Ltd. are growing +0.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Nippon Gas Co., Ltd. (NPNGY) carry?
The net debt of Nippon Gas Co., Ltd. is ¥19.1B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 0.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 4, 2026