Nisshinbo Holdings Inc (NSHBY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Nisshinbo Holdings Inc $22.64, price $26.70, upside -15.2%, quality 60 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $9.97 – $31.35 · fair‑value band $17.20 – $30.45 · the $26.70 price screens above the $22.64 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Nisshinbo Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in wireless communication, microdevice, automobile brakes, mechatronics, chemicals, textiles, and real estate businesses in China and internationally.
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Nisshinbo Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in wireless communication, microdevice, automobile brakes, mechatronics, chemicals, textiles, and real estate businesses in China and internationally. It offers disaster prevention, monitoring, video, automotive radar, and broadcasting systems; wireless communication equipment for ships; communication and sensor equipment for transportation infrastructure; bridge system for merchant shipping; close-proximity wireless solutions; ultrasonic-related devices; and equipment for the ministry of defense. The company also provides analog, small, low-power power, and single processing semiconductors, power management IC, RF and opto-semiconductor devices, and microwave electron tubes transmitter/receiver for satellite communications products; friction materials for automobile brakes; and fans for air conditioning equipment, peripheral products for automobile headlamps, and precision parts for electronically controlled brake systems. In addition, it provides insulation materials, resin modifiers, carbon separators for fuel cells, and molding and EBS valve block products; carbon products for semiconductor manufacturing equipment, airlite foam, carbodilite resin additive, bipolar plates for fuel cells, and amorphous carbon; and wrinkle-resistant shirts and uniforms, spandex, Oikos non-woven fabrics, and elastomer-related products. Further, it sells and leases real estates, including shopping centers, sport and leisure facilities, offices, housing, and housing exhibition sites. The company was incorporated in 1907 and is headquartered in Chuo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Nisshinbo Holdings Inc ADR (NSHBY) currently trades at $26.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $22.64, implying the stock looks roughly 17.9% overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 24 models at a data quality of 88/100, which puts the evidence level at high.
Scenario range: $17.20 (bear) to $30.45 (bull), the price of $26.70 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Nisshinbo Holdings Inc ADR reported revenue of ¥527B in FY2025 versus ¥511B in FY2021, a compound +0.8%/yr. Reported net income was ¥14.6B in FY2025, compounding −12.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $2.4B · P/E ratio 24.1 · P/S ratio 0.67 · EPS (TTM) $1.11 · Dividend yield 1.5% · Net margin 2.8% · Return on equity 0.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 38% fair-value upside, at −15%, NSHBY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $17.20Fair Value $22.64Bull $30.45
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.59/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.1% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−2.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−4.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−4% vs 3%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.0% → 5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+3.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +1.6% a year for the price and −0.1% for the forecasts.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Conglomerates · 378 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−15% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)1% · Below median
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)−1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth0% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.5% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.41× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper
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Is Nisshinbo Holdings Inc (NSHBY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $22.64 versus a price of $26.70, about −15% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NSHBY?
Our model-based fair value for Nisshinbo Holdings Inc ADR is $22.64 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $26.70.
What is the quality score of NSHBY?
Nisshinbo Holdings Inc ADR has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nisshinbo Holdings Inc (NSHBY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $22.64 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario $17.20, optimistic scenario $30.45. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nisshinbo Holdings Inc ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $22.64, about −15% upside versus a price of $26.70 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $17.20, optimistic scenario $30.45. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Nisshinbo Holdings Inc (NSHBY)?
Nisshinbo Holdings Inc ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥570B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Nisshinbo Holdings Inc ADR pay a dividend?
Nisshinbo Holdings Inc ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.50% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Nisshinbo Holdings Inc (NSHBY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Nisshinbo Holdings Inc ADR would have to grow free cash flow by +3.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.9 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NSHBY use?
Our models discount Nisshinbo Holdings Inc ADR at 10.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.20, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Nisshinbo Holdings Inc ADR that is +3.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Nisshinbo Holdings Inc (NSHBY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Nisshinbo Holdings Inc ADR grew +2.9 % a year. The price currently implies +3.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Nisshinbo Holdings Inc (NSHBY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Nisshinbo Holdings Inc ADR (+3.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Nisshinbo Holdings Inc (NSHBY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.31 %: that much free cash flow Nisshinbo Holdings Inc ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Nisshinbo Holdings Inc (NSHBY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nisshinbo Holdings Inc ADR it is $22.64 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $26.70. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Nisshinbo Holdings Inc ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, NSHBY trades above its calculated fair value: price $26.70, fair value $22.64, a gap of about −15% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NSHBY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($26.70); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($22.64). For Nisshinbo Holdings Inc ADR the two are $4.06 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nisshinbo Holdings Inc ADR worth?
The market values Nisshinbo Holdings Inc ADR at about $2.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $26.70; our models calculate a fair value of $22.64 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NSHBY?
Our models span a range for Nisshinbo Holdings Inc ADR: cautious scenario $17.20, base $22.64, optimistic $30.45 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $26.70). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NSHBY?
Nisshinbo Holdings Inc ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 24.1 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $22.64 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.4, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 14.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Nisshinbo Holdings Inc (NSHBY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Nisshinbo Holdings Inc ADR (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 0.9%, debt of 0.41 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to Nisshinbo Holdings Inc ADR?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value 3M Company, Honeywell International Inc, CITIC Limited, Poste Italiane S.p.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nisshinbo Holdings Inc ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $26.70, calculated fair value $22.64 (−15%), Quality Score 60/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NSHBY calculated?
We run Nisshinbo Holdings Inc ADR through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $22.64, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Nisshinbo Holdings Inc ADR itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Nisshinbo Holdings Inc (NSHBY)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $26.70. Our model-based fair value is $22.64, about −15% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Nisshinbo Holdings Inc ADR right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Nisshinbo Holdings Inc (NSHBY) come from?
Earnings per share at Nisshinbo Holdings Inc ADR grew +3.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.0 %, EBIT margin +8.6 %, tax rate −3.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Nisshinbo Holdings Inc ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Nisshinbo Holdings Inc (NSHBY)?
The market capitalisation of Nisshinbo Holdings Inc ADR is $2.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Nisshinbo Holdings Inc (NSHBY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Nisshinbo Holdings Inc ADR is 0.67 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Nisshinbo Holdings Inc (NSHBY)?
Earnings per share at Nisshinbo Holdings Inc ADR are $1.11 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 24.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Nisshinbo Holdings Inc (NSHBY)?
The dividend yield of Nisshinbo Holdings Inc ADR is 1.5% (payout 36.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Nisshinbo Holdings Inc (NSHBY)?
The net margin of Nisshinbo Holdings Inc ADR is 2.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Nisshinbo Holdings Inc (NSHBY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Nisshinbo Holdings Inc ADR is 0.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Nisshinbo Holdings Inc (NSHBY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Nisshinbo Holdings Inc ADR is 2.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Nisshinbo Holdings Inc (NSHBY)?
The operating margin of Nisshinbo Holdings Inc ADR is −1.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Nisshinbo Holdings Inc (NSHBY)?
Revenue at Nisshinbo Holdings Inc ADR is growing −0.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Nisshinbo Holdings Inc (NSHBY)?
Earnings per share at Nisshinbo Holdings Inc ADR are growing +94.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Nisshinbo Holdings Inc (NSHBY) carry?
The net debt of Nisshinbo Holdings Inc ADR is ¥134B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026