Northern Bear PLC (NTBR) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · GB · Market cap 14.1M GBX
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from £3.69 to £3.08 (−16.7%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price +24.2% over the past month.
A strong business, screening 200% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The rarer combination: high quality (75/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (£2.30). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £0.2722 – £1.27 · fair‑value band £2.30 – £3.84 · the £1.03 price screens below the £3.08 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Northern Bear PLC (NTBR) currently trades at £1.03, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £3.08, implying the stock looks roughly 200.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 75/100 (high quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Northern Bear PLC generated revenue of £89.9M at a net margin of 4.6%. Revenue grew 31.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 18.1%. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 3.7. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from £2.30 (bear case) to £3.84 (bull case); at £1.03, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -33% fair-value upside, at 200%, NTBR screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (£4.91) versus Dividend Discount (£0.2200). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 73 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 55
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Northern Bear PLC, together with its subsidiaries, provides building and support services to local authorities, housing associations, NHS trusts, universities, construction companies, and national house builders in Northern England and internationally.
Full company description
Northern Bear PLC, together with its subsidiaries, provides building and support services to local authorities, housing associations, NHS trusts, universities, construction companies, and national house builders in Northern England and internationally. It operates through three segments: Roofing Activities, Materials Handling Activities, and Specialist Building Services Activities. The company supplies, maintains, and services forklift trucks and warehouse equipment on hire and for sale basis. It also offers roofing services, such as slating, tiling, leadwork, felting, refurbishment, and maintenance services for domestic, commercial, and public sector properties. In addition, the company is involved in building maintenance, refurbishment, electrical contracting, fire protection, and sound insulation activities. Further, it offers consultancy services for health, safety, and environmental matters; design and installation of commercial interiors for breweries, universities, hotels, health clubs, schools, care homes, and offices. Additionally, the company provides electrical repairs, installation, maintenance and testing, fire alarms, emergency lighting, and door access system services. Northern Bear PLC was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Newcastle upon Tyne, the United Kingdom.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Northern Bear PLC reported revenue of £78.1M in FY2025 versus £49.2M in FY2021, a compound +12.3%/yr. Reported net income was £2.3M in FY2025.
of which total revenue +7.5 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.9 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Building Products & Equipment · 247 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Building Products & Equipment median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Building Products & Equipment stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trane Technologies plc TT | $469.98 | $212.34 | -55% |
| Johnson Controls International plc JCI | $142.81 | $45.65 | -68% |
| Carrier Global Corporation CARR | $68.61 | $17.35 | -75% |
| Compagnie de Saint-Gobain S.A SGO | €76.62 | €101.60 | +33% |
| Geberit AG GEBN | CHF 523.20 | CHF 307.66 | -41% |
| Lennox International Inc LII | $543.93 | $363.09 | -33% |
| Kingspan Group KRX | €87.30 | €70.76 | -19% |
| Masco Corporation MAS | $78.04 | $54.36 | -30% |
| PT Impack Pratama Industri Tbk, IMPC | 1,420 IDR | 179.76 IDR | -87% |
| NIBE Industrier AB NIBEB | kr 36.03 | kr 25.37 | -30% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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