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Northern Bear PLC (NTBR) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · GB · Market cap 14.1M GBX

NB Northern Bear PLC NTBR · LSE
Price£1.03
Fair Value£3.08
Upside+200.0%
Quality75/100
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Healthy Growth
Thin margins · 4.6% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
2.49% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (13/14)
Moderate moat 51/100
Evidence: High Range £2.30 – £3.84 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 25 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from £3.69 to £3.08 (−16.7%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price +24.2% over the past month.

A strong business, screening 200% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The rarer combination: high quality (75/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict.
  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (£2.30). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

£1.27 £0.2722 Fair Value £3.08 Dec 2019 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range £0.2722 – £1.27 · fair‑value band £2.30 – £3.84 · the £1.03 price screens below the £3.08 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

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Analysis

Northern Bear PLC (NTBR) currently trades at £1.03, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £3.08, implying the stock looks roughly 200.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 75/100 (high quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Northern Bear PLC generated revenue of £89.9M at a net margin of 4.6%. Revenue grew 31.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 18.1%. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 3.7. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026

Our scenario range runs from £2.30 (bear case) to £3.84 (bull case); at £1.03, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -33% fair-value upside, at 200%, NTBR screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF £3.81 £5.53 £7.78 80
Residual Income £1.28 £1.37 £1.54 76
Rev-Margin DCF £3.00 £4.54 £6.49 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF £3.86 £5.83 £8.57 38
Owner Earnings £1.49 £2.18 £3.13 31
5Y Revenue Exit £3.00 £4.53 £6.51 39
5Y EBITDA Exit £3.43 £5.40 £7.78 41
5Y P/E Exit £3.19 £4.91 £6.81 38
10Y Revenue Exit £3.26 £4.68 £6.68 36
10Y EBITDA Exit £3.56 £5.22 £7.57 37
10Y P/E Exit £3.42 £4.92 £6.89 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd £1.14 £4.89 £6.69 54
Lynch FV £1.25 £1.79 £2.33 50
PEG = 1.0 £1.25 £1.79 £2.33 46
EPV £1.60 £1.77 £1.90 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM £0.1400 £0.2300 £0.3000 70
DDM Multi-Stage £0.1400 £0.2200 £0.2500 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple £2.76 £3.69 £4.61 63
P/S Multiple £2.14 £2.85 £3.56 58
P/B Multiple £2.14 £2.85 £3.56 55
EV/EBIT £3.56 £4.66 £5.77 53
EV/EBITDA £3.46 £4.53 £5.60 54
EV/Revenue £2.47 £3.43 £4.39 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) £0.8100 £1.09 £1.62 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF £3.81 £5.53 £7.78 80
Rev-Margin DCF £3.00 £4.54 £6.49 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income £1.28 £1.37 £1.54 76
ROIC Compounder £1.60 £1.86 £2.19 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E £2.15 £3.08 £4.00 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (£4.91) versus Dividend Discount (£0.2200). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 89.9M GBX
Revenue growth (YoY) +31.4%
Net margin 4.6%
Return on equity 18.1%
Free cash flow 5.5M GBX FY2025
P/E ratio 3.4
More key figures
Operating margin 8.3%
EPS (TTM) £0.3000
Dividend yield 2.5%
EPS growth (YoY) +155%
Net cash 741K GBX FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 75/100

Of which business quality 73 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 55

Profitability 59
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 69
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 62
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 74
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 91
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 69
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 44
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 60
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Northern Bear PLC, together with its subsidiaries, provides building and support services to local authorities, housing associations, NHS trusts, universities, construction companies, and national house builders in Northern England and internationally.

Full company description

Northern Bear PLC, together with its subsidiaries, provides building and support services to local authorities, housing associations, NHS trusts, universities, construction companies, and national house builders in Northern England and internationally. It operates through three segments: Roofing Activities, Materials Handling Activities, and Specialist Building Services Activities. The company supplies, maintains, and services forklift trucks and warehouse equipment on hire and for sale basis. It also offers roofing services, such as slating, tiling, leadwork, felting, refurbishment, and maintenance services for domestic, commercial, and public sector properties. In addition, the company is involved in building maintenance, refurbishment, electrical contracting, fire protection, and sound insulation activities. Further, it offers consultancy services for health, safety, and environmental matters; design and installation of commercial interiors for breweries, universities, hotels, health clubs, schools, care homes, and offices. Additionally, the company provides electrical repairs, installation, maintenance and testing, fire alarms, emergency lighting, and door access system services. Northern Bear PLC was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Newcastle upon Tyne, the United Kingdom.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Northern Bear PLC reported revenue of £78.1M in FY2025 versus £49.2M in FY2021, a compound +12.3%/yr. Reported net income was £2.3M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 75/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
£78.1M
Latest YoY
+13.7%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+8.5%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+7.5%
Avg. growth/yr (18Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+16.8%
Revenue +12.3%/yr
FY21 £49.2M
FY22 £61.1M
FY23 £69.7M
FY24 £68.7M
FY25 £78.1M
Net income
FY21 −£1.8M
FY22 −£1.3M
FY23 £1.6M
FY24 £1.6M
FY25 £2.3M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +3.7 % p.a.
Revenue per share +8.4 pp

of which total revenue +7.5 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.9 pp

EBIT margin −5.6 pp
Tax rate −0.1 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) +1.1 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Northern Bear PLC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NTBR

Peer Group

Building Products & Equipment · 247 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 75 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +200% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 18% · Top 25%
Return on assets 8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 5% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 8% · Above median
Revenue growth 31% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.5% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.03× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Building Products & Equipment median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 3.4× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 0.85× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.21× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 3.5× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 2.3× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 3
FUTURE 100 · sector 9
PAST 72 · sector 23
HEALTH 98 · sector 94
DIVIDEND 50 · sector 28

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Building Products & Equipment stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Trane Technologies plc TT $469.98 $212.34 -55%
Johnson Controls International plc JCI $142.81 $45.65 -68%
Carrier Global Corporation CARR $68.61 $17.35 -75%
Compagnie de Saint-Gobain S.A SGO €76.62 €101.60 +33%
Geberit AG GEBN CHF 523.20 CHF 307.66 -41%
Lennox International Inc LII $543.93 $363.09 -33%
Kingspan Group KRX €87.30 €70.76 -19%
Masco Corporation MAS $78.04 $54.36 -30%
PT Impack Pratama Industri Tbk, IMPC 1,420 IDR 179.76 IDR -87%
NIBE Industrier AB NIBEB kr 36.03 kr 25.37 -30%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Northern Bear PLC (NTBR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 16, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £3.08 versus a price of £1.03, about +200% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of NTBR?
Our model-based fair value for Northern Bear PLC is £3.08 (as of Jul 16, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is £1.03.
What is the quality score of NTBR?
Northern Bear PLC has a Quality Score of 75/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Northern Bear PLC (NTBR)?
Northern Bear PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £89.9M (latest available figure, as of Jul 16, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of NTBR?
The net profit margin of Northern Bear PLC is about 4.6%, meaning it keeps roughly 4.6% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Northern Bear PLC pay a dividend?
Northern Bear PLC currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.26% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 16, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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