Northern Bear Plc (NTBR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Northern Bear Plc £3.26, price £1.09, upside +200.0%, quality 75 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £0.3267 – £1.53 · fair‑value band £2.44 – £4.07 · the £1.09 price screens below the £3.26 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Northern Bear PLC, together with its subsidiaries, provides building and support services to local authorities, housing associations, NHS trusts, universities, construction companies, and national house builders in Northern England and internationally.
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Northern Bear PLC, together with its subsidiaries, provides building and support services to local authorities, housing associations, NHS trusts, universities, construction companies, and national house builders in Northern England and internationally. It operates through three segments: Roofing Activities, Materials Handling Activities, and Specialist Building Services Activities. The company supplies, maintains, and services forklift trucks and warehouse equipment on hire and for sale basis. It also offers roofing services, such as slating, tiling, leadwork, felting, refurbishment, and maintenance services for domestic, commercial, and public sector properties. In addition, the company is involved in building maintenance, refurbishment, electrical contracting, fire protection, and sound insulation activities. Further, it offers consultancy services for health, safety, and environmental matters; design and installation of commercial interiors for breweries, universities, hotels, health clubs, schools, care homes, and offices. Additionally, the company provides electrical repairs, installation, maintenance and testing, fire alarms, emergency lighting, and door access system services. Northern Bear PLC was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Newcastle upon Tyne, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Northern Bear Plc (NTBR) currently trades at £1.09, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £3.26, implying the stock looks roughly 66.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of £5.77 per share, and 24 of the 26 models we run sit above the £1.09 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at £1.09, and 2 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: £2.44 (bear) to £4.07 (bull), the price of £1.09 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 75/100 (high quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Northern Bear Plc reported revenue of £78.1M in FY2025 versus £49.2M in FY2021, a compound +12.3%/yr. Reported net income was £2.3M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 15.0M GBX · P/E ratio 3.6 · P/S ratio 0.11 · EPS (TTM) £0.3000 · Dividend yield 2.3% · Net margin 3.0% · Return on equity 18.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −20% fair-value upside, at 200%, NTBR screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear £2.44Fair Value £3.26Bull £4.07
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (£0.2750 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.75/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+13.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.5% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+16.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+13.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.9% vs 8%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 4%
2025 sits 86% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−31.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (UK: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −32.9% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Building Products & Equipment · 253 stocks
Beats the industry median on 13/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score75 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+200% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)18% · Top 25%
Return on assets8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)5% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth31% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)2.3% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.03× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Building Products & Equipment median · lower = cheaper
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Is Northern Bear Plc (NTBR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £3.26 versus a price of £1.09, about +200% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of NTBR?
Our model-based fair value for Northern Bear Plc is £3.26 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £1.09.
What is the quality score of NTBR?
Northern Bear Plc has a Quality Score of 75/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Northern Bear Plc (NTBR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £3.26 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario £2.44, optimistic scenario £4.07. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Northern Bear Plc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £3.26, about +200% upside versus a price of £1.09 (undervalued). Cautious scenario £2.44, optimistic scenario £4.07. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Northern Bear Plc (NTBR)?
Northern Bear Plc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £89.9M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Northern Bear Plc pay a dividend?
Northern Bear Plc currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.30% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Northern Bear Plc (NTBR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Northern Bear Plc would have to grow free cash flow by -31.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.5 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NTBR use?
Our models discount Northern Bear Plc at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.24, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Northern Bear Plc that is -31.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Northern Bear Plc (NTBR) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Northern Bear Plc grew +7.5 % a year. The price currently implies -31.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Northern Bear Plc (NTBR) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Northern Bear Plc (-31.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Northern Bear Plc (NTBR)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 36.73 %: that much free cash flow Northern Bear Plc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Northern Bear Plc (NTBR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Northern Bear Plc it is £3.26 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of £1.09. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Northern Bear Plc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, NTBR trades below its calculated fair value: price £1.09, fair value £3.26, a gap of about +200% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NTBR?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£1.09); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£3.26). For Northern Bear Plc the two are £2.17 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Northern Bear Plc worth?
The market values Northern Bear Plc at about 15.0M GBX (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is £1.09; our models calculate a fair value of £3.26 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NTBR?
Our models span a range for Northern Bear Plc: cautious scenario £2.44, base £3.26, optimistic £4.07 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price £1.09). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NTBR?
Northern Bear Plc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 3.6 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of £3.26 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.9, P/S 0.2, EV/EBITDA 2.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Northern Bear Plc (NTBR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Northern Bear Plc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 18.1%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 75/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NTBR from its 52-week high?
Northern Bear Plc trades at £1.09, about 29% below its 52-week high of £1.53 and 16% above the low of £0.9350 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £3.26 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Northern Bear Plc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Trane Technologies plc, Johnson Controls International plc, Carrier Global Corporation, Compagnie de Saint-Gobain S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Northern Bear Plc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price £1.09, calculated fair value £3.26 (+200%), Quality Score 75/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NTBR calculated?
We run Northern Bear Plc through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of £3.26, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Northern Bear Plc currently trades 200 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Northern Bear Plc (NTBR)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was £1.09. Our model-based fair value is £3.26, about +200% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Northern Bear Plc right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (75/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case (£2.44). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Where does the earnings growth of Northern Bear Plc (NTBR) come from?
Earnings per share at Northern Bear Plc grew +3.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.4 %, EBIT margin −5.6 %, tax rate −0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Northern Bear Plc
How large is the market capitalisation of Northern Bear Plc (NTBR)?
The market capitalisation of Northern Bear Plc is 15.0M GBX. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Northern Bear Plc (NTBR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Northern Bear Plc is 0.11 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Northern Bear Plc (NTBR)?
Earnings per share at Northern Bear Plc are £0.3000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 3.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Northern Bear Plc (NTBR)?
The dividend yield of Northern Bear Plc is 2.3% (payout 8.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Northern Bear Plc (NTBR)?
The net margin of Northern Bear Plc is 3.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Northern Bear Plc (NTBR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Northern Bear Plc is 18.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Northern Bear Plc (NTBR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Northern Bear Plc is 5.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Northern Bear Plc (NTBR)?
The operating margin of Northern Bear Plc is 8.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Northern Bear Plc (NTBR)?
Revenue at Northern Bear Plc is growing +31.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Northern Bear Plc (NTBR)?
Earnings per share at Northern Bear Plc are growing +155% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Northern Bear Plc (NTBR) hold?
Northern Bear Plc holds more cash than debt, 741K GBX net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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