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Neste Oyj (NTOIY) Fair Value & Analysis

Energy · US · Market cap $23.4B

Price$15.34
Fair Value$2.18
Upside-85.8%
Quality95/100
Evidence: High Range $1.30 – $3.15

Analysis

Neste Oyj (NTOIY) currently trades at $15.34, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.18 — implying the stock looks roughly 85.8% overvalued today. We read business quality at 95/100 (high quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium — the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

About the company

Neste Oyj, together with its subsidiaries, provides renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel in Finland, other Nordic countries, Baltic Rim, other European countries, the United States, and internationally. The company operates through Renewable Products, Oil Products, Marketing & Services segments. It produces, markets, and sells renewable diesel, sustainable aviation fuel, and related solutions. The company also provides various oil products, including diesel, gasoline, aviation and marine fuels, light and heavy fuel oils, gasoline components, and special fuels, such as small-engine gasoline, solvents, and liquid gases for retailers and distributors, oil majors and trading companies, and companies marketing lubricants and solvents. In addition, the company markets and sells lower emission fuels, oil products, and associated digital solutions to consumers, transport service providers, aviation, shipping, industrial and agricultural, and municipalities and heating fuel custome…

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How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data — nothing guessed.

Educational research only · not financial advice · no buy/sell recommendation. Model-based estimates are not certainties; their reliability depends on data quality and assumptions.