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Umicore SA (NVJP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Umicore SA €39.72, price €21.14, upside +87.9%, quality 66 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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US
Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Umicore SA
NVJP · XETRAClearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.
✓Fair value €39.72 · Strongly undervalued (+87.9%)
✓Quality 66/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −1.3 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 2.0% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
✓2.4% dividend yield · Well covered
!Moderate moat 47/100
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €7.02 – €51.25 · fair‑value band €23.88 – €51.64 · the €21.14 price screens below the €39.72 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Umicore SA operates as a materials technology and recycling company in Belgium, Europe, the Asia-Pacific, North America, South America, and Africa. It operates through Battery Material, Catalysis, Recycling, and Specialty Materials segments.
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Umicore SA operates as a materials technology and recycling company in Belgium, Europe, the Asia-Pacific, North America, South America, and Africa. It operates through Battery Material, Catalysis, Recycling, and Specialty Materials segments. The Battery Material segment develops, manufactures, and markets cathode materials and its precursors for lithium-ion batteries, as well as related refining activities of cobalt and nickel chemical refining activities; and offers integrated, circular and sustainable battery materials. Its Catalysis segment provides automotive catalysts for light-duty gasoline and diesel light, and heavy-duty diesel applications, including on-road and off-road vehicles; stationary catalysts for industrial emissions control; and produces precious metals-based compounds and catalysts for use in the pharmaceutical and fine chemicals industries, as well as fuel cell applications. The Recyling segment is involved in precious metals refining and management, jewelry and industrial metals; and treating complex waste streams containing precious and other specialty metals. This segment also produces precious metals-based materials for high-tech glass production and electronics; and offers products for chemical, electric, electronic, automotive and special glass applications. Its Specialty Materials segments offers cobalt and specialty materials, electro-optic materials, and metal deposition solutions; produces and distributes cobalt and nickel products; and supplies products for precious and non-precious metal-based electroplating and PVD coating, as well as germanium-based material solutions for the space, optics and electronics sectors. The company was formerly known as Union Minière du Haut Katanga and changed its name to Umicore SA in 2001. Umicore SA was founded in 1805 and is headquartered in Brussels, Belgium.
Stock analysis
Umicore SA (NVJP) currently trades at €21.14, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €39.72, implying the stock looks roughly 46.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €44.75 per share, and 20 of the 26 models we run sit above the €21.14 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €6.24, and 6 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €23.88 (bear) to €51.64 (bull), the price of €21.14 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Umicore SA reported revenue of €19.4B in FY2025 versus €24.1B in FY2021, a compound −5.3%/yr. Reported net income was €385M in FY2025, compounding −11.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €5.1B · P/E ratio 13.3 · P/S ratio 0.26 · EPS (TTM) €1.59 · Dividend yield 2.4% · Net margin 2.0% · Return on equity 18.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 51% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −15% fair-value upside, at 88%, NVJP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €23.88
Fair Value €39.72
Bull €51.64
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.8242 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
€16.99
€28.17
€44.99
79
Growth DCF
€17.17
€26.85
€40.40
78
Owner Earnings
€19.75
€32.50
€51.68
75
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
€16.99
€28.17
€44.99
79
Owner Earnings
€19.75
€32.50
€51.68
75
5Y Revenue Exit
€28.29
€50.94
€80.54
71
5Y EBITDA Exit
€47.07
€86.75
€134.20
73
5Y P/E Exit
€23.63
€42.06
€61.76
70
10Y Revenue Exit
€22.72
€42.19
€69.57
65
10Y EBITDA Exit
€35.68
€66.75
€110.31
66
10Y P/E Exit
€20.96
€36.10
€55.31
63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
€10.87
€37.01
€49.64
64
Lynch FV
€8.49
€12.13
€15.77
61
PEG = 1.0
€8.49
€12.13
€15.77
57
EPV
€21.69
€25.54
€28.87
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
€2.19
€4.37
€6.62
67
DDM Multi-Stage
€2.19
€3.72
€4.62
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
€33.57
€44.75
€55.94
63
P/S Multiple
€20.38
€27.17
€33.96
58
P/B Multiple
€20.38
€27.17
€33.96
55
EV/EBIT
€74.20
€99.84
€125.48
66
EV/EBITDA
€71.59
€96.36
€121.12
67
EV/Revenue
€36.17
€52.84
€69.50
53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
€4.65
€6.24
€9.31
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
€17.17
€26.85
€40.40
78
Rev-Margin DCF
€28.29
€50.49
€76.51
71
Economic Profit
Residual Income
€9.98
€12.80
€19.66
74
ROIC Compounder
€23.60
€30.41
€38.28
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
€27.81
€39.72
€51.64
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
66/100
Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 64
Profitability
50
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
78
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
38
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
53
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
47
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
72
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
70
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
80
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+30.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.2% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.2%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+8.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+6.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.6.0% vs 7.4%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2% → 5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+7.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +5.1% a year for the price.
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Compare Umicore SA with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Waste Management · 157 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Waste Management median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Information Technology sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: German Stocks
- Valuation of the Germany market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Waste Management stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Waste Management, Inc WM | $203.92 | $224.31 | +10% |
| Republic Services, Inc RSG | $211.92 | $128.63 | −39% |
| Waste Connections, Inc WCN | $150.66 | $165.73 | +10% |
| Veolia Environnement SA VIE | €30.73 | €20.32 | −34% |
| Clean Harbors, Inc CLH | $313.04 | $155.54 | −50% |
| GFL Environmental Inc GFL | $40.43 | $34.29 | −15% |
| Fomento de Construcciones y Contratas, S.A FCC | €10.72 | €7.30 | −32% |
| Casella Waste Systems, Inc CWST | $82.24 | $14.82 | −82% |
| GEM Co 002340 | ¥6.12 | ¥5.27 | −14% |
| Zhejiang Weiming Environment Protection Co 603568 | ¥13.36 | ¥20.95 | +57% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Umicore SA (NVJP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €39.72 versus a price of €21.14, about +88% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of NVJP?
Our model-based fair value for Umicore SA is €39.72 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €21.14.
What is the quality score of NVJP?
Umicore SA has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Umicore SA (NVJP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €39.72 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario €23.88, optimistic scenario €51.64. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Umicore SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €39.72, about +88% upside versus a price of €21.14 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €23.88, optimistic scenario €51.64. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Umicore SA (NVJP)?
Umicore SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €19.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Umicore SA pay a dividend?
Umicore SA currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.37% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Umicore SA (NVJP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Umicore SA would have to grow free cash flow by +7.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -1.3 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NVJP use?
Our models discount Umicore SA at 9.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.90, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Umicore SA that is +7.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Umicore SA (NVJP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Umicore SA grew -1.3 % a year. The price currently implies +7.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Umicore SA (NVJP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Umicore SA (+7.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Umicore SA (NVJP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.56 %: that much free cash flow Umicore SA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Umicore SA (NVJP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Umicore SA it is €39.72 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of €21.14. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Umicore SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, NVJP trades below its calculated fair value: price €21.14, fair value €39.72, a gap of about +88% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NVJP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€21.14); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€39.72). For Umicore SA the two are €18.58 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Umicore SA worth?
The market values Umicore SA at about €5.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is €21.14; our models calculate a fair value of €39.72 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NVJP?
Our models span a range for Umicore SA: cautious scenario €23.88, base €39.72, optimistic €51.64 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price €21.14). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NVJP?
Umicore SA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €39.72 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.5, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 5.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Umicore SA (NVJP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Umicore SA (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 18.6%, debt of 0.99 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 66/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NVJP from its 52-week high?
Umicore SA trades at €21.14, about 20% below its 52-week high of €26.28 and 51% above the low of €14.02 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €39.72 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Umicore SA?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Waste Management, Inc, Republic Services, Inc, Waste Connections, Inc, Veolia Environnement SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Umicore SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price €21.14, calculated fair value €39.72 (+88%), Quality Score 66/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NVJP calculated?
We run Umicore SA through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €39.72, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Umicore SA currently trades 47 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Umicore SA (NVJP)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was €21.14. Our model-based fair value is €39.72, about +88% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Umicore SA right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (€23.88). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (66/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (€23.88 to €51.64) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Umicore SA (NVJP) come from?
Earnings per share at Umicore SA grew +9.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.5 %, EBIT margin +6.6 %, tax rate −2.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Umicore SA
How large is the market capitalisation of Umicore SA (NVJP)?
The market capitalisation of Umicore SA is €5.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Umicore SA (NVJP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Umicore SA is 0.26 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Umicore SA (NVJP)?
Earnings per share at Umicore SA are €1.59 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Umicore SA (NVJP)?
The dividend yield of Umicore SA is 2.4% (payout 31.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Umicore SA (NVJP)?
The net margin of Umicore SA is 2.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Umicore SA (NVJP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Umicore SA is 18.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Umicore SA (NVJP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Umicore SA is 4.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Umicore SA (NVJP)?
The operating margin of Umicore SA is 6.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Umicore SA (NVJP)?
Revenue at Umicore SA is growing +44.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −8.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Umicore SA (NVJP)?
Earnings per share at Umicore SA are growing −38.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Umicore SA (NVJP) carry?
The net debt of Umicore SA is €1.3B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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