NexGen Energy Ltd (NXE) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · US · Market cap $6.1B
NexGen Energy Ltd
NXE · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 1 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from $4.98 to $1.04 (−79.1%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +13.6% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 90% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($1.30). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (18/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range ($0.6900 to $1.30) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.50 – $13.92 · fair‑value band $0.6900 – $1.30 · the $10.43 price screens above the $1.04 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
NexGen Energy Ltd (NXE) currently trades at $10.43, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.04, implying the stock looks roughly 90.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 18/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
It earns a return on equity of -29.6%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $215M. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $0.6900 (bear case) to $1.30 (bull case); at $10.43, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 68% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -63% fair-value upside, at -90%, NXE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 1 models by family
Key figures & financial health
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 25 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 41
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
NexGen Energy Ltd., an exploration and development stage company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, evaluation, and development of uranium properties in Canada.
Full company description
NexGen Energy Ltd., an exploration and development stage company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, evaluation, and development of uranium properties in Canada. The company holds a 100% interest in the Rook I project that consists of 32 contiguous mineral claims totaling an area of approximately 35,065 hectares located in the southwestern Athabasca Basin of Saskatchewan. NexGen Energy Ltd. was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
NexGen Energy Ltd reported revenue of $0 in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2021. Reported net income was −$309M in FY2025.
NXE screens 90% overvalued. Compare with Cameco Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- NexGen to Host Q2 2026 Conference Call
- NexGen Energy (TSX:NXE) Stock Looks Above Fair Value Despite 145% Returns
- NexGen Energy (TSX:NXE) Has Slid In Recent Trading, Is It Still Fully Valued?
- NexGen Energy Ltd. (NXE) Fell Due to Risk-Off Sentiment in the Commodity Market
Peer Group
Uranium · 26 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Uranium median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Uranium stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cameco Corporation CCJ | $95.99 | $9.62 | -90% |
| China National Uranium Co 001280 | ¥56.66 | ¥11.54 | -80% |
| Sprott Physical Uranium Trust Fund UU | $18.61 | $29.76 | +60% |
| Centrus Energy Corp LEU | $156.05 | $58.25 | -63% |
| CGN Mining Company 1164 | HK$2.42 | HK$1.01 | -58% |
| Deep Yellow Limited DYL | A$1.23 | A$0.3000 | -76% |
| IsoEnergy Ltd ISOU | $10.01 | $1.78 | -82% |
| Bannerman Energy Ltd BMN | A$3.51 | A$3.63 | +3% |
| Uranium Royalty Corp UROY | $2.76 | $1.62 | -41% |
| Boss Energy Limited BOE | A$1.30 | A$0.3600 | -72% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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