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Next 15 Group (NXFNF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Next 15 Group is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Some data
Sep 13, 2026
Some data
Sep 13, 2026
Next 15 Group
NXFNF · USClearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.
✓Fair value $8.75 · Strongly undervalued (+107%)
!Quality 52/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +13.8 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -4.9% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
·3.65% dividend yield
!Narrow moat 17/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.0016 – $14.55 · fair‑value band $5.52 – $12.95 · the $4.22 price screens below the $8.75 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Company profile
Next 15 Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the data, technology, and activation businesses in the United Kingdom, the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through five segments: Retail Media; Data and Research; Digital Transformation; Marketing and Communications; and Creative Services.
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Next 15 Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the data, technology, and activation businesses in the United Kingdom, the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through five segments: Retail Media; Data and Research; Digital Transformation; Marketing and Communications; and Creative Services. The company is involved in growth consultancy; market research; data analytics; advertising; lead generation; shopper marketing; management consultancy; venture building; data and insights; customer engagement; digital marketing; and communications and business transformation. It provides its products and services under the Activate, Archetype, Brandwidth, elvis, M Booth, M Booth Health, MHP Group, Pretzl, Savanta, SMG, and Transform brands names. The company was formerly known as Next Fifteen Communications Group plc and changed its name to Next 15 Group plc in April 2023. Next 15 Group plc was incorporated in 1981 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Next 15 Group (NXFNF) currently trades at $4.22, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $8.75, implying the stock looks roughly 51.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $7.04 per share, and 8 of the 10 models we run sit above the $4.22 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $3.44, and 2 of the 10 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $5.52 (bear) to $12.95 (bull), the price of $4.22 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Next 15 Group reported revenue of £617M in FY2026 versus £470M in FY2022, a compound +7.0%/yr. Reported net income was −£30.2M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap $426M · P/S ratio 0.52 · EPS (TTM) $−0.2000 · Dividend yield 3.6% · Net margin −4.9% · Return on equity −9.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.5% · Operating margin 2.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 20% fair-value upside, at 107%, NXFNF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $5.52
Fair Value $8.75
Bull $12.95
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$4.74
$7.77
$12.43
76
Growth DCF
$4.67
$7.31
$11.12
75
5Y EBITDA Exit
$3.30
$5.05
$7.18
73
All 10 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$4.74
$7.77
$12.43
76
5Y Revenue Exit
$4.28
$7.09
$10.88
69
5Y EBITDA Exit
$3.30
$5.05
$7.18
73
10Y Revenue Exit
$4.29
$6.88
$10.79
64
10Y EBITDA Exit
$3.80
$5.51
$7.95
66
Multiples
EV/EBITDA
$2.65
$3.44
$4.22
67
EV/Revenue
$4.09
$5.72
$7.34
54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$0.6500
$0.8700
$1.31
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$4.67
$7.31
$11.12
75
Rev-Margin DCF
$4.28
$7.04
$10.62
69
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
52/100
Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 45
Profitability
38
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
11
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
52
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
44
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
92
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
21
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
45
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
72
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
99
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−15.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.8%
Revenue growth 29 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.9%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
7.6% (2021) → 0.0% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+3.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−4.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Forecast 2027 (sales)−28.2%
Forecast 2028 (sales)+3.6%
Projected 2029 (sales)+3.4%
Projected 2030 (sales)+3.2%
Projected 2031 (sales)+3.0%
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Compare Next 15 Group with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Advertising Agencies · 198 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Advertising Agencies median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Communication Services sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Communication Services
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Advertising Agencies stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| AppLovin Corporation APP | $323.96 | $356.36 | +10% |
| Publicis Groupe S.A PUB | €96.80 | €146.36 | +51% |
| Omnicom Group OMC | $79.01 | $110.54 | +40% |
| Focus Media Information Technology Co 002027 | ¥4.75 | ¥5.71 | +20% |
| The Trade Desk, Inc TTD | $14.34 | $44.94 | +213% |
| BlueFocus Intelligent Communications Group 300058 | ¥13.15 | ¥2.28 | −83% |
| Leo Group 002131 | ¥4.46 | ¥1.17 | −74% |
| JCDecaux SE DEC | €24.34 | €20.99 | −14% |
| WPP plc WPP | $24.97 | $41.75 | +67% |
| Easy Click Worldwide Network Technology Co 301171 | ¥34.66 | ¥6.14 | −82% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Next 15 Group (NXFNF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $8.75 versus a price of $4.22, about +107% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of NXFNF?
Our model-based fair value for Next 15 Group is $8.75 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $4.22.
What is the quality score of NXFNF?
Next 15 Group has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Next 15 Group (NXFNF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $8.75 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.52, optimistic scenario $12.95. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Next 15 Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $8.75, about +107% upside versus a price of $4.22 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $5.52, optimistic scenario $12.95. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Next 15 Group (NXFNF)?
Next 15 Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $617M (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does Next 15 Group pay a dividend?
Next 15 Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.65% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Next 15 Group (NXFNF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Next 15 Group would have to grow free cash flow by +3.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.8 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NXFNF use?
Our models discount Next 15 Group at 12.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.26, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Next 15 Group that is +3.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Next 15 Group (NXFNF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Next 15 Group grew +13.8 % a year. The price currently implies +3.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Next 15 Group (NXFNF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Next 15 Group (+3.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Next 15 Group (NXFNF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.86 %: that much free cash flow Next 15 Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Next 15 Group (NXFNF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Next 15 Group it is $8.75 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of $4.22. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Next 15 Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, NXFNF trades below its calculated fair value: price $4.22, fair value $8.75, a gap of about +107% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NXFNF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($4.22); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($8.75). For Next 15 Group the two are $4.53 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Next 15 Group worth?
The market values Next 15 Group at about $426M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is $4.22; our models calculate a fair value of $8.75 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NXFNF?
Our models span a range for Next 15 Group: cautious scenario $5.52, base $8.75, optimistic $12.95 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price $4.22). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Next 15 Group (NXFNF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Next 15 Group (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity −9.5%, debt of 0.43 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NXFNF from its 52-week high?
Next 15 Group trades at $4.22, about 23% below its 52-week high of $5.50 and 32% above the low of $3.19 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $8.75 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Next 15 Group?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value AppLovin Corporation, Publicis Groupe S.A, Omnicom Group, Focus Media Information Technology Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Next 15 Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price $4.22, calculated fair value $8.75 (+107%), Quality Score 52/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NXFNF calculated?
We run Next 15 Group through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $8.75, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Next 15 Group currently trades 107 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Next 15 Group right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($5.52). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (52/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($5.52 to $12.95) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Next 15 Group
How large is the market capitalisation of Next 15 Group (NXFNF)?
The market capitalisation of Next 15 Group is $426M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Next 15 Group (NXFNF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Next 15 Group is 0.52 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Next 15 Group (NXFNF)?
Earnings per share at Next 15 Group are $−0.2000. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Next 15 Group (NXFNF)?
The dividend yield of Next 15 Group is 3.6%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Next 15 Group (NXFNF)?
The net margin of Next 15 Group is −4.9% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Next 15 Group (NXFNF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Next 15 Group is −9.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Next 15 Group (NXFNF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Next 15 Group is 9.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Next 15 Group (NXFNF)?
The operating margin of Next 15 Group is 2.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Next 15 Group (NXFNF)?
Revenue at Next 15 Group is growing −10.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −5.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Next 15 Group (NXFNF)?
Earnings per share at Next 15 Group are growing −54.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Next 15 Group (NXFNF) carry?
The net debt of Next 15 Group is $35.6M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 0.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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