Orange County Bancorp Inc (OBT) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Orange County Bancorp Inc $22.34, price $37.38, upside -40.2%, quality 53 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $13.80 – $39.19 · fair‑value band $17.39 – $36.88 · the $37.38 price screens above the $22.34 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Orange County Bancorp, Inc., a bank holding company, through its subsidiaries, provides commercial and consumer banking products and services. The company operates in Business Banking, Private Banking, and Trust & Wealth Management segments.
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Orange County Bancorp, Inc., a bank holding company, through its subsidiaries, provides commercial and consumer banking products and services. The company operates in Business Banking, Private Banking, and Trust & Wealth Management segments. It accepts various deposits, including interest-bearing and noninterest-bearing demand accounts, money market deposit accounts, savings accounts, and certificates of deposit. The company also offers commercial real estate loans, commercial and industrial loans, commercial real estate construction loans, residential real estate loans, home equity loans, and consumer loans. In addition, it provides traditional trust and administration, asset management, financial planning, and wealth management services; and financial products, including checking, savings, money market accounts, certificates of deposit, and treasury management services. The company offers its products to small businesses, middle-market enterprises, local municipal governments, and individuals, as well as operate full-service branches and loan production office in Orange, Westchester, Rockland, and Bronx counties in New York. Orange County Bancorp, Inc. was founded in 1892 and is headquartered in Middletown, New York.
Stock analysis
Orange County Bancorp Inc (OBT) currently trades at $37.38, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $22.34, implying the stock looks roughly 67.3% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $29.69 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the $37.38 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $6.77, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $17.39 (bear) to $36.88 (bull), the price of $37.38 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Orange County Bancorp Inc reported revenue of $158M in FY2025 versus $76.0M in FY2021, a compound +20.1%/yr. Reported net income was $41.6M in FY2025, compounding +18.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $468M · P/E ratio 10.9 · P/S ratio 2.87 · EPS (TTM) $3.43 · Dividend yield 1.7% · Net margin 26.3% · Return on equity 17.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 62% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −40%, OBT screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $17.39Fair Value $22.34Bull $36.88
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.06 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +16.7% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+22.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+20.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.21% vs 10%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.23% → 33%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−22.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −24.4% a year for the price.
Compare Orange County Bancorp Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1074 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Below median
Fair Value upside−40% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)18% · Top 25%
Return on assets2% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)36% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)46% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth17% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.7% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.12× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)10.9× · Cheaper than median
P/B1.64× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)3.77× · Pricier than median
P/FCF11.3× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA5.6× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 11
FUTURE (revenue growth)85· sector 45
PAST (return on equity)72· sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)94· sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)33· sector 53
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Orange County Bancorp Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/OBT
Frequently asked questions
Is Orange County Bancorp Inc (OBT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $22.34 versus a price of $37.38, about −40% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of OBT?
Our model-based fair value for Orange County Bancorp Inc is $22.34 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $37.38.
What is the quality score of OBT?
Orange County Bancorp Inc has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Orange County Bancorp Inc (OBT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $22.34 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $17.39, optimistic scenario $36.88. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Orange County Bancorp Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $22.34, about −40% upside versus a price of $37.38 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $17.39, optimistic scenario $36.88. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Orange County Bancorp Inc (OBT)?
Orange County Bancorp Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $124M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Orange County Bancorp Inc pay a dividend?
Orange County Bancorp Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.66% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Orange County Bancorp Inc (OBT)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Orange County Bancorp Inc would have to grow free cash flow by -22.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +19.7 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of OBT use?
Our models discount Orange County Bancorp Inc at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.43, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Orange County Bancorp Inc that is -22.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Orange County Bancorp Inc (OBT) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Orange County Bancorp Inc grew +19.7 % a year. The price currently implies -22.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Orange County Bancorp Inc (OBT) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Orange County Bancorp Inc (-22.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Orange County Bancorp Inc (OBT)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.84 %: that much free cash flow Orange County Bancorp Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Orange County Bancorp Inc (OBT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Orange County Bancorp Inc it is $22.34 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $37.38. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Orange County Bancorp Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, OBT trades above its calculated fair value: price $37.38, fair value $22.34, a gap of about −40% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of OBT?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($37.38); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($22.34). For Orange County Bancorp Inc the two are $15.04 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Orange County Bancorp Inc worth?
The market values Orange County Bancorp Inc at about $468M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $37.38; our models calculate a fair value of $22.34 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about OBT?
Our models span a range for Orange County Bancorp Inc: cautious scenario $17.39, base $22.34, optimistic $36.88 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $37.38). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of OBT?
Orange County Bancorp Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.9 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $22.34 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.6, P/S 3.8, EV/EBITDA 5.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Orange County Bancorp Inc (OBT)?
Balance-sheet figures for Orange County Bancorp Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 17.9%, debt of 0.12 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is OBT from its 52-week high?
Orange County Bancorp Inc trades at $37.38, about 5% below its 52-week high of $39.19 and 62% above the low of $23.03 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $22.34 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Orange County Bancorp Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, HDFC Bank Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Orange County Bancorp Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $37.38, calculated fair value $22.34 (−40%), Quality Score 53/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of OBT calculated?
We run Orange County Bancorp Inc through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $22.34, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Orange County Bancorp Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Orange County Bancorp Inc (OBT)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $37.38. Our model-based fair value is $22.34, about −40% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Orange County Bancorp Inc right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($17.39 to $36.88) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Orange County Bancorp Inc (OBT) come from?
Earnings per share at Orange County Bancorp Inc grew +9.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.2 %, EBIT margin +2.5 %, tax rate −0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Orange County Bancorp Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Orange County Bancorp Inc (OBT)?
The market capitalisation of Orange County Bancorp Inc is $468M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Orange County Bancorp Inc (OBT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Orange County Bancorp Inc is 2.87 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Orange County Bancorp Inc (OBT)?
Earnings per share at Orange County Bancorp Inc are $3.43 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Orange County Bancorp Inc (OBT)?
The dividend yield of Orange County Bancorp Inc is 1.7% (payout 18.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Orange County Bancorp Inc (OBT)?
The net margin of Orange County Bancorp Inc is 26.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Orange County Bancorp Inc (OBT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Orange County Bancorp Inc is 17.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Orange County Bancorp Inc (OBT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Orange County Bancorp Inc is 1.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Orange County Bancorp Inc (OBT)?
The operating margin of Orange County Bancorp Inc is 46.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Orange County Bancorp Inc (OBT)?
Revenue at Orange County Bancorp Inc is growing +17.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +18.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Orange County Bancorp Inc (OBT)?
Earnings per share at Orange County Bancorp Inc are growing +10.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Orange County Bancorp Inc (OBT) hold?
Orange County Bancorp Inc holds more cash than debt, $170M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Sep 23, 2026